A Change Comes to Men's Basketball

The US men's basketball team has undergone a dramatic change in philosophy, and is now fighting for the opportunity to play in the 2008 Olympics. It's a topic I cover over at Tim Chapman's Blog.

Back to the top.

It's Official: If Fidel Isn't Already Dead...

He's terminal without serious hope of recovery. Note the artful phrasing describing Raul's accession to power: "The word transition does not exist in the vocabulary of Cubans here..."

Immigration Debate Growing More Complex

I have been predicting for some time that the Congress would enact an immigration reform bill this year. However, events of the last few weeks have made me think that maybe I put my first-born at risk too hastily.

In the last few weeks, Republicans have received more bad news regarding their Congressional majorities. Where the June-July period seemed to show signs of the President and GOP candidates surging, that seems to have hit a plateau. Now candidates are hearing more about the potential for a Democratic takeover of one or both Houses.

Further, Members of Congress are (by and large) spending August in their home districts. Congressmen always hear a lot from constituents this month, and return to Washington with a strong inclination that the must do... something. After the Easter recess, they returned to DC shocked at how pervasive was the sentiment that illegal immigration is a problem. What will they hear in August? My sense is that so far, they are hearing that they ought not give in to a legalization compromise on immigration.

So come September, Republicans might well return to Washington with a few big ideas: they may not be in control of Congress in a few months, and they must not compromise on immigration.

But Congress is clearly more likely to deliver a strong enforcement bill under Republican leadership. If no bill is enacted this year and Democrats take over one or both Houses of Congress, a compromise more like McCain-Kennedy becomes very likely. Republicans who want a strong enforcement bill - particularly those in the House - should therefore try to get a deal done before the elections.

But if Senate Democrats see Republicans on the run, and trying to forge a quick enforcement-only deal, they ought to be more emboldened to block it - either by filibuster or more likely, simple foot-dragging. This strategy should give them the chance to pass a 'better deal' from their point of view, after the election.

But then again, if Democrats do this, they may be handing Republicans a huge political opportunity. Congressional leaders could call a special Congressional session in late October to deal solely with immigration. The House would once again pass an enforcement-only bill, and send it to the Senate. Democrats would be forced either to swallow hard and give the Republicans a big victory right before the election, or to filibuster border enforcement.

Who would 'win' politically in such a scenario? Democrats might well motivate their base, but wouldn't they suffer a significant blow among critical independent voters, just a week or so before the election? And would Republicans suffer any more among hispanic voters than (some argue) they already have? Wouldn't the Republican base be strongly motivated with a such a demonstration of backbone?

Update: And by the way, Congressmen from Florida look like they might come back and push harder for a deal that gurantees a steady supply of migrant workers. Although I don't have a cite for an article, that's likely true of California's central valley as well, where there has always been support for guestworker programs.

Back to the top.

DeLay Stays on the Ballot

As I noted the other day, Texas Republicans will not be allowed to replace Tom DeLay on the ballot.

This should make the campaigns interesting. Democrats outside Texas will doubtless try to tie Congressional candidates to DeLay. But DeLay will probably play - to some extent - the role of aggrieved victim of Democrats playing politics, who refused to allow him to walk away.

He will have to choose whether to run for the seat itself - promising to serve the full term - or whether he will promise to resign after being elected, thereby creating a new election to replace him, in which Texas Republicans could select their nominee in a primary. The latter course would probably be easier - since more people will probably vote for a new election than will vote for DeLay. But now that he's been forced back in, I bet DeLay will not go halfway, and will instead run for the seat for real.

Expect it to be a very expensive race - in the $10 million range for both candidates.

Update: I have DeLay's response below



Back to the top.

Altruistic Harry Reid

Is Harry Reid afraid of defeat? I address it over at Tim Chapman's blog.

Back to the top.

Lieberman Looking Like Toast

The latest poll shows him trailing by double digits in Tuesday's primary against Ned Lamont, and the Hartford Courant's Kevin Rennie reports that he is preparing for a major campaign shuffle, in anticipation of a loss.

That second link also discusses the flagging campaign of Republican Alan Schlesinger. Put these ingredients together, and 2+2 can only equal 4. If Lieberman loses his primary, he and Republicans will find some way to work together. I don't know whether that means Schlesinger drops out and Lieberman gets the nod, or merely something simple such as no serious Republican campaign and no attacks on Lieberman, in exchange for Lieberman working more closely with Republicans in the new Senate.

I have been saying for months that I don't see how Lieberman can return to the Senate as a Democrat if he loses the primary. The increasing amount of bile between him and the Democratic base makes me more confident of that each day.

Back to the top.

Israel Driving Lebanon Toward Syria

So says Lebanese leader Walid Jumblatt.

Hat tip: Michael Totten.

Back to the top.

Ahmadinejad Has Another Helpful Proposal

Iranian President: Solution to Middle East crisis is to destroy Israel.

Appropos of Nothing...

Today is Tisha b'Av:

" Judah has fled into exile from oppression and cruel slavery; Yet where she lives among the nations she finds no place to rest: All her persecutors come upon her where she is narrowly confined. "

Lamentations 1:3

The First Casualty When War Comes Is Truth

Evidence Mounts that Kana "Massacre" Was a Fake

But we know that Hezbollah wouldn't manipulate the media, right?

Israel and its enemies operate in an environment in which media relations and spin control are more important strategically than the tactical facts on the ground.
Will the "9/11 was an inside job" media skeptics devote half the conspiracy-theorising time they've devoted to that to the deconstruction of the messages which Hezbollah permits the western media to beam back into our living rooms?

Enquiring minds want to know.

Why We Fight

I cross-posted a terrific column by Mort Kondracke over at the Tim Chapman blog. It is a great summary of the stakes in the Global War on Terror, and explains why we must win in Iraq - regardless of the premise of the war, or the conduct to date.

Check it out.

Back to the top.

Random Castro Thought

Fidel Castro celebrates his 80th birthday on August 13. I'd wager a month's salary that regardless of when Castro actually dies, it is not announced until after his 80th.

It'll be kind of like that MASH episode where they move the clock hands forward...

Back to the top.

Morris: GOP Must Raise Minimum Wage

I don't think that the minimum wage issue moves many votes, especially given the pervasiveness of Iraq (and Lebanon, and North Korea). However, Morris is always interesting - and often right. And he is right that Democrats will surely run commercials contrasting estate-tax relief with the status quo on the minimum wage. In a close election in a swing district, I suppose such an attack might move some votes.

Morris' column is here.

Back to the top.

I Heart Keith Olbermann

Who else regularly and frequently does battle with the likes of Osama bin Laden and Adolf Hitler?

The man is a hero - a HERO I tell you! And no one appreciates his nightly service.

In fact, it seems like no one is even watching.

Wait a minute - he's not on ESPN anymore?

Back to the top.

Wakim Defends Resume

One of the chief Republican takeover targets this year is the seat of incumbent Democrat Alan Mollohan in West Virginia. I have written extensively about the ethics charges against Mollohan.

Now it looks like the tables have been turned, and it is Mollohan's opponent Delegate Chris Wakim, who is answering questions about puffing up his resume:

Wakim Defends Record
By JOSELYN KING

Delegate Chris Wakim, R-Ohio, defended his military and academic records Tuesday, claiming that he has reported them accurately on his resume and campaign literature.

Wakim, a current Congressional candidate in West Virginia’s 1st District, is being questioned about his reported master’s degree in “public policy” from Harvard University, and whether he is truly “a veteran” of the Gulf War.

On his Web site, Wakim indicates that he is a graduate of both the United States Military Academy at West Point and Harvard University, and that he is disabled Gulf War veteran who was “honorably discharged for injuries sustained in the line of duty.”

The information also states that Wakim “earned his master’s degree in public policy from Harvard University in 1991 graduating in the top 15 percent of his class.”

During a teleconference Tuesday, Wakim was challenged by reporters who pointed out that one only receives an actual master’s degree in public policy from Harvard after graduating from the university’s prestigious Kennedy School.

Wakim admitted that he did not graduate from the Kennedy School.

“It’s an odd thing,” Wakim said. “We always called it a public policy program, but I didn’t go to K-school. I would have loved to have done so.”

His diploma from Harvard — when translated from Latin — states that he holds a‘‘master of liberal arts degree in extension studies with an emphasis on government’’ from the institution.

He said he actually obtained his master’s degree from Harvard over a three-year period in the early 1990s while serving in the military at nearby Fort Devens, Mass.

Wakim said he worked days at the military base, holding the rank of captain and training national guard troops who were being mobilized and sent to fight in the Gulf War. He then would travel the 30 miles to Cambridge, Mass., to take night classes at Harvard.

‘‘While I was at Harvard, war was proclaimed,’’ Wakim said. ‘‘My capacity was to evaluate units and deploy them using my expertise as a company commander with the 4th Infantry.

“I earned my master’s degree at night while serving my country during the day. Any attempt to discredit that is disgraceful.”

Wakim was questioned as to whether he himself saw battle during the Gulf War. He admitted that he did not, and that he was not stationed overseas during the Gulf War.

Wakim did say that he is in fact a veteran of the war under definitions stipulated by federal law. U.S. Code defines a ’’veteran of any warî as a member of the U.S. Armed Forces who served in the active military, naval, or air service during a period of war.

The Gulf War is listed as having begun Aug. 2, 1990.

Wakim was commissioned in the military after his graduation from West Point on May 18, 1980, and he served until Oct. 18, 1991.

Wakim said he is a member of both the American Legion Post 1 in Wheeling and of the Disabled American Veterans organization.

He added that he is considered ‘‘70 percent disabled’’ by the U.S. Veterans Administration.

While with the 4th Infantry, Wakim said he sustained a broken back, a broken elbow and sustained injuries that led to his knee having to be reconstructed. He attributed the injuries to the training of the 4th Infantry.

‘‘As a leader, I knew those things happen,’’ Wakim said. ‘‘I was medically discharged...

Frankly, this looks like a sloppy campaign mistake. Wakim may be accurate in his defenses to both of these charges, but he knew - or ought to have known - how they would be read. It would have been easy (and impressive) to claim a Master's in Government (if that is in fact, what it would be called) from Harvard, and to call himself a disabled Army Veteran. That phrasing would likely have saved him from this controversy. In a tough race against a longtime incumbent, the last thing Wakim needs is to become a distraction from the serious charges against Mollohan.

Back to the top.

DeLay Running for Re-election

At least, that's the way it seems, according to the Houston Chronicle account of a hearing before the three-judge panel that is considering DeLay's appeal:

July 31, 2006, 1:26PM
Appeals court hears from lawyers in DeLay ballot battle
By R.G. RATCLIFFE
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

NEW ORLEANS — A federal appeals panel indicated today that the ability of Republicans to replace former U.S. Rep. Tom Delay on the ballot rests on whether there was "conclusive" evidence that he had moved to Virginia.

The three-judge panel of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals did not indicate when it would rule. But questions from the panel seemed to favor the Democrats' position that Republican officials could not declare DeLay ineligible for office based on residency prior to election day.

Republican lawyer James Bopp Jr. told the panel that DeLay had given Texas Republican Chairwoman Tina Benkiser enough evidence that she could make a "reasonable prediction" that DeLay would not be a resident of Texas on election day. That evidence included a change of driver's license and voter registration, plus a letter stating he had moved to Virginia.

Bopp said that gave her the power to declare DeLay ineligible to serve if elected and opened the door for replacing him on the ballot.

But Judges Pete Benavides and Edith Clement noted that a candidate like DeLay could move back to Texas by election day and be eligible for office. They said the U.S. Constitution would prohibit a state party official from throwing a candidate off the ballot in such circumstances.

"How can it be conclusive if you can always change your voter registration," Clement asked.

Bopp said a candidate who wanted to be on the ballot could win such a case. "He has to say, No, I am going to come back." DeLay, however, has said he plans to remain a resident of Virginia indefinitely, Bopp said.

Benavides said the evidence proves where DeLay lives now but not necessarily on election day.

"I can see how it informs a decision that Mr. DeLay will not be in Texas on election day, but how is it conclusive?" Benavides said.

The U.S. Constitution says to be eligible to serve in the U.S. House a candidate must be an "inhabitant" of the state from which he is elected on election day.

At one point, Benavides also quipped: "I lost a campaign for the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals when my opponent was in Europe, but he was still a resident of Texas."

Attorneys for the Texas Democratic Party said the evidence showed that DeLay and Benkiser "manufactured" his move to Virginia so they would replace him on the ballot in violation of Texas election law.

"This is a case where the district court found manufactured evidence, a manipulation of the system, and therefore a fraud against the voters," said Democratic attorney Chad Dunn.

Under state election law, political parties are not allowed to replace nominees once opposing political parties have chosen their nominees for office.

In this case, the Democrats already have chosen former U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson as their nominee, and the Libertarian Party has Bob Smither running for the seat.

Because of that, Dunn said the Republicans tried to make DeLay ineligible by changing his residence from his home in Sugar Land to his long-time condominium in Virginia.

U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks last month agreed with the Democrats and enjoined Benkiser from replacing DeLay on the ballot for the general election.

Benavides and Judge James L. Dennis are Democratic judicial appointees, and Clement is a Republican appointee.

If DeLay does end up running for re-election, expect it to be a $10 million race. And expect it to increase pressure on Bob Ney to step aside in favor or a more competitive candidate, so Republicans don't wind up endangering two 'gimme' seats.

If DeLay is forced to seek re-election, he has several options for how to go about it. He can say that he intends to serve his full term, or he can say that he intends to step down and create a special election to fill the seat. He might draw more votes by campaigning for a new election - effectively - than he would for campaigning for himself.

If the ruling comes down against DeLay's team, it will be interesting to see what he decides to do. Either way, it will be fun to see DeLay campaigning as a victim of Democratic vindictiveness - refusing to let him walk off into the sunset, but insisting that he run again.

Back to the top.

Check Out Tim Chapman Blog

By the way, I am cross-posting this week at the blog of Tim Chapman, of the Heritage Foundation. Tim is taking a well-deserved rest while I enjoy the balmy temperatures here in DC.

Definitely take a look at Tim's blog daily, especially if you're interested in good reporting of what is going on in the Congress.

Back to the top.

Democratic Party Falling Apart

According to the Washington Post, DNC Chair Howard Dean and DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel don't speak anymore. Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, and the Congressional wing of the Democratic party seem to think that Dean is an idiot, and that he's wasting money on the 'Fifty State Strategy.' They're increasingly frustrated that Dean is redirecting money that has traditionally gone to Get Out the Vote efforts - money which they need to make up.

It's clear that the Democrats are suffering across the board from their disorganization and lack of unity. They do not agree on Iraq, on election themes and messaging, on impeaching the President, on Murtha vs. Hoyer for 'Majority Leader,' on fiscal policy, on the role of the Netroots and the direction of the party, or on how to win elections. You would think that with the greatest opportunity in 14 years to enhance their position in Washington, they could bury their differences and work together to win. But you would be wrong.

If Democrats fail to win at least a House majority this year, the bloodletting after Election Day will be fierce. There are so many lingering brushfires that even victory can only help contain them. If Democrats head down to defeat again, Dean, Emanuel, Pelosi, Murtha, Schumer, Reid, and many others will all be called to account. The only question is whether they will wait until election day, or whether some heads will start to roll before.

Democrats Scrambling To Organize Voter Turnout
By Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, August 2, 2006; A01

Top Democrats are increasingly concerned that they lack an effective plan to turn out voters this fall, creating tension among party leaders and prompting House Democrats to launch a fundraising campaign aimed exclusively at mobilizing Democratic partisans.

At a meeting last week, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) criticized Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean for not spending enough party resources on get-out-the-vote efforts in the most competitive House and Senate races, according to congressional aides who were briefed on the exchange. Pelosi -- echoing a complaint common among Democratic lawmakers and operatives -- has warned privately that Democrats are at risk of going into the November midterm elections with a voter-mobilization plan that is underfunded and inferior to the proven turnout machine run by national Republicans.

The Senate and House campaign committees are creating their own get-out-the-vote operations instead, using money that otherwise would fund television advertising and other election-year efforts. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) -- who no longer speaks to Dean because of their strategic differences -- is planning to ask lawmakers and donors to help fund a new turnout program run by House Democrats. He has recruited Michael Whouley, a specialist in Democratic turnout, to help oversee it.

"I am not waiting for anyone anymore who said they were going to" build a turnout operation, Emanuel said. "It has got to be done."

Many Democrats said that despite a favorable political climate and record-setting fundraising, the campaign to recapture the House and Senate could fall short if the organizational problems persist. "What the party really needs is to get serious about local, volunteer-based" operations, said Jack Corrigan, a longtime Democratic operative. "The last-minute, throw-money-at-it approach . . . does not really solve the fundamental failure to organize that is there. The DNC is moving in the right direction, but needs to do more, fast," he said.

Democrats consider the 2006 elections their best chance in a decade to recapture the House, with widespread unease over Iraq and with Republicans lagging in polls. Rep. Charles B. Rangel (N.Y.), who would become chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee if Democrats picked up the 15 seats needed to regain the majority, said in an interview yesterday that he will quit Congress if the party does not capitalize on an unparalleled opportunity.

Democrats' organizing has been slowed by a philosophical dispute between Dean, who argues that the party needs to rebuild its long-term infrastructure nationwide while trying to win back the House and Senate, and congressional Democrats, who want to use party resources for an all-out push this fall.

Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is less concerned about the Dean approach than House leaders are. "We are obviously concerned," a senior Senate Democratic strategist said, but Schumer moved ahead two months ago with a plan to fortify get-out-the-vote operations in 15 states, including targeting disgruntled Republicans. Democrats sympathetic to Dean said that Emanuel and Pelosi are trying to blame the DNC chairman in case they do not win back the House.

Republicans are far more united in their approach, building on what both sides said worked well in 2002 and 2004. They are routing all turnout efforts through the Republican National Committee, which had $45 million in the bank -- four times as much as the DNC -- as of June 30.

The RNC runs a strategy known in political circles as the 72-hour program. It focuses on using phone calls, polling data and personal visits to identify would-be GOP voters and their top issues early in the cycle. The information is then fed into a database, allowing party leaders to flood them with pro-Republican messages through e-mail, regular mail and local volunteers. On Election Day, they receive a phone call or a visit to remind them to vote.

A GOP strategist involved in the effort said the RNC did a post-election review of every person it contacted, looking at how many times they were reached, which issues were discussed and whether they voted. This information was supplied to about 30 targeted states earlier this year, and RNC officials track the states to see whether they are reaching goals for adding new names and contacting old ones.

Both parties credit this program with putting Bush over the top in Ohio in 2004 by exceeding GOP turnout projections in key parts of the state. "I think the best 21st-century turnout operation was Bush-Cheney '04," said Thomas M. Reynolds (N.Y.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. But the political landscape has changed dramatically. Conservatives are less enthused about GOP lawmakers, polls show, and therefore may be less likely to vote in high numbers.

...Compounding concerns, liberal donors such as financier George Soros, who helped fund a $100 million for a get-out-vote program in 2004, have soured on what they regard as short-term fixes offered by party leaders, several major donors said. They refused to fund efforts similar to one by Americans Coming Together, which spent more than $100 million to identify and turn out voters in 2004. ACT helped increase turnout significantly in key states, including Ohio, but donors thought most of their money was wasted because the Bush-Cheney operation did better...

It's really amazing to think that they have let things get this bad.

Back to the top.

Can the GOP Lose in November

All the polls say it's possible - even likely - but when you're running against a party whose leaders won't condemn Hezbollah, is there any chance that the American people will put them in power?



Powerline posts a longer transcript, with this as the key exchange:

DINGELL: Well, we don’t, first of all, I don’t take sides for or against Hezbollah or for or against Israel.

ANCHOR: You’re not against Hezbollah?

DINGELL: No, I happen to be—I happen to be against violence, I think the United States has to bring resolution to this matter. Now, I condemn Hezbollah as does everybody else, for the violence, but I think if we’ve got to talk to them and if we don’t — if we don’t get ourselves in a position where we can talk to both sides and bring both sides together, the killing and the blood let is going to continue.

The interview is with Representative John Dingell, who will chair one of the most powerful committees in the House of Representatives (Energy and Commerce), if Democrats retake the majority.

Back to the top.

Castro Dodging the Reaper

It appears that the news of Fidel Castro's surgery last night led to unfouded hopes. It seems that Castro's trip to Hades is delayed just a little longer, and that I'm not the only one who got ahead of the news cycle.

Ever since the first reports arrived suggesting that Castro's end might be near, I've been thinking of Monty Python's dead parrot. I've decided not to wait for the news that Castro is dead to post it.



I guess Castro didn't have the salmon mousse...

And for what it's worth, Castro's padwan Hugo Chavez is worried about him as well.

And lastly, Scrappleface picks up on the dark horse candidate to succeed Castro.

Back to the top.