I missed the 22nd Annual Pumpkin Regatta!
Look what people do when they have too much time on their hands.
Or is it because they have too big pumpkins?
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Saturday, October 21, 2006
I Think I Saw this on Northern Exposure
Barron's: GOP Will Hold Both Houses
Courtesy of Powerline comes this prediction from Barron's, which suggest that the GOP will have their majority narrowed, but will retain both Houses on election day. I hope that's right, but I don't know that the Barron's piece adds much to the debate.
Barron's bases its projection on who's raised the most money in each individual race. They note that the candidate with the most cash wins 92% of the time. Based on that, and how much GOP candidates have raised, they project GOP majorities.
This has some value I suppose, but I think it puts the cart before the horse.
Very few races are seriously contested nowadays - only about 30 or so a year since the 2000 redistricting, it seems. In the other 400 House races, the person who is certain to win almost invariably raises more than the person who's certain to lose. 400 out of 435 equals a 92 percent success rate.
Barron's notes that their rule - he who has the most money, wins - operates for every election except 1958, 1974, and 1994 - which were all big wave years. (Democrats gained 49 seats in 1958 and 1974; the GOP gained 54 in 1994.)
To me, the Barron's piece leaves us with the same question we had before: is this a big wave election or not? If it is, then some better-funded candidates are going to lose. If it is not, those who have the most money will likely hold onto their seats.
Barron's argues that this year is not like 1994, because at that time the economy was bad, and now it's good. Of course, the economy was not all that bad at that time - and I don't recall people thinking it was. Now the economy is great, and people tend to be pessimistic about it. So even if the strength of the economy made this year different from 1994, the perception of the economy is probably no better today than it was then.
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Weller Clarifies
Jerry Weller has apparently decided to do what he can to shut down the rumor-mongering. He says that one of his interns (not a page), whose identity they did not know, was invited to the home of another congressman for some type of party when that intern was 21. Apparently nothing happened.
I have said that the GOP needs the whole page story to go away. I suspect that reporters will do some digging around this (those that have not done so already). This account of Weller's raises questions: did nothing really happen, why do they not know the intern's identity, and how did this transform into the other page rumor that went around a few days ago? However, if reporters find nothing more to it than this (and I am told the NYT found this to be a dry well), and if the person was indeed 21, hopefully the story will die without further attention.
Weller clarifies intern incident
DISSPELLING RUMORS
October 21, 2006
By Ken O'Brien STAFF WRITER
Intern invited to party by another lawmaker
JOLIET -- Acting on the advice of an election attorney, the staff for U.S. Rep. Jerry Weller is contacting the U.S. House Ethics Committee about an incident involving a male former intern and another congressman.
The staff took that action as rumors swirled Thursday about potential trouble for Weller, R-Morris, in the wake of the page scandal.
Weller is not being investigated, campaign spokesman Steve Shearer said Friday.
Shearer said "there is nothing" to the rumors, noting that those have been circulated on Democratic-leaning blogs. He said some blogs have since changed their postings about Weller.
Shearer said the incident occurred two to four years ago when an intern of Weller's intern, then 21, was invited to the home of another congressman for a social function. Weller's office does not know the identity of the intern, he said.
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Friday, October 20, 2006
Weller Rumor Set to Boomerang on Dems?
Illinois's Daily Journal reports that Representative Jerry Weller has informed the House Ethics Committee that a page - one evidently sponsored by him - was inappropriately invited to a social function by another Congressman.
Following on the heels of The Rumor, this represents an interesting twist. Where rumor had it that he had acted inappropriately with regard to a page, it seems that rather, he knew of another lawmaker who has done so. Is that individual a Democrat or Republican? Well, I hope it's a Democrat. And I also hope that nothing more is involved here than 'an invite to a social function.' That sounds far less serious than the Foley affair.
More directly on politics however, I hope that this story DIES. The GOP gains nothing at this point from a Democrat answering ethics charges. It just makes voters more anti-Congress, and convinces them that something needs to change. No matter how it appears on the surface, that can't be good for the GOP.
Republicans need an end to these ethics stories now, so they can return in the scarce days remaining to topics like economic growth, immigration, and national security.
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Mehlman: The Base is Motivated
Ken Mehlman has shared a summary of why the GOP believes their base is sufficiently motivated to do well in the midterms:
Friday, October 20, 2006
Memorandum From RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman To Republican Activists And Interested Parties On Republican Motivation
TO: REPUBLICAN ACTIVISTS AND INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: KEN MEHLMAN
DATE: OCTOBER 20, 2006
RE: REPUBLICAN MOTIVATION
In recent days and weeks, the mainstream media have repeatedly claimed that the Republican base is suffering from “low voter enthusiasm.” It is easy to believe a story that is repeated so frequently, but in fact there is ample evidence to the contrary. By many measures, there are strong indications of a right-of-center base that is engaged and committed.
First, numerous polls clearly indicate near parity in intensity between Democrats and Republicans. Three recent national surveys—Gallup, Cook/RT Strategies, and our most recent RNC survey conducted by Voter/Consumer Research—all show partisan interest is approximately equal. The details of those polls are below:
Voter/Consumer Research (Oct. 8-10)
The RNC’s internal research shows election interest at 7.7 on a 10-point scale among Republicans and 7.6 among Democrats, unchanged from late September and in line with this year’s overall trend.
Gallup (Oct. 6-8)
To quote from Gallup’s voter turnout projection, “Gallup's latest analysis suggests Republicans and Democrats are now roughly even in terms of anticipated turnout in the midterm congressional elections. The voting intentions of the large pool of registered voters is now similar to the voting intentions of the smaller pool of likely voters, showing no disproportionate impact of turnout in either direction”
Gallup asked, “How motivated do you feel to get out and vote this year -- extremely motivated, very motivated, somewhat motivated, not too motivated or not at all motivated?(% “extremely” or “very” motivated)” The following table shows that the GOP in fact now holds a slight lead, up from just a few months ago:
[Graphic doesn't work on this page; please see link for this data - The Editor]
Cook/RT Strategies (Oct. 5-8)
On a scale of one to 10, Republicans and Democrats have almost equally high mean election interest scores (8.2 for Republicans, 8.1 for Democrats), but Democrats hold a slight edge in the percentage of their voters who are “highly interested”—47 to 51 percent.
However, keeping in mind the local nature of midterm elections, it is more important to consider intensity by state or congressional district. RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics (conducted Oct. 8-10) released district-by-district polling showing Republicans have a slight edge in partisan intensity. GOP “voter motivation” is higher than Democratic motivation in 19 of 32 competitive House races, in some cases by as much as a full point on a 1 to 9 scale. Democratic intensity is higher in the remaining 13, and in none of those races is the difference higher than 2/3 of a point.
Additional Data
A recent Pew study (9/21-10/4) found that while roughly similar numbers of Republicans (41%) and Democrats (39%) are “regular” voters, more Republicans (25%) than Democrats (20%) vote intermittently—meaning there are more of our voters for us to turn out in a midterm election. Furthermore, Democrats (20%) are substantially more likely than Republicans (14%) to not be registered to vote at all.
Other Measures of Intensity
There are ways besides polls to measure the intensity of the Republican base, and those also indicate that GOP voters are strongly engaged. Fundraising, for example, is often called the ‘first ballot’ for the simple reason that supporters only donate when they are involved and enthusiastic. That is why we are excited that the RNC received support from 362,000 new donors this cycle. We’ve averaged 8,256 contributions for each deposit day so far this year. We just announced that September has been our best financial month of the entire cycle. Our supporters know how important this election is, and their financial support shows it.
Volunteer enthusiasm is another key measure of intensity. Again, every indication here is that our base is working hard for victory in the 2006 election. Republican volunteers have contacted more than 14 million voters this year, and more than 7 million since Labor Day alone. We have made 1 million voter contacts every week for the past five weeks, and for six weeks we have surpassed the number of contacts we made at comparable times in 2004, a presidential election year.
The Bottom Line
Despite the media hype, an examination of all the facts makes it clear: the Republican base is active and engaged. No matter how you measure it—whether by record-breaking fundraising, unprecedented volunteerism, or scientific polling—the numbers show that Republicans understand the importance of the choice we all face on November 7.
I'm not sure how one can reconcile this data and this argument with the tendency of pollsters to sample more Democrats than Republicans this year, because (it is said) the electorate this year will be disproportionately Democrat. Is there a way they can both be right, or is one in for a surprise on election day?
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Some Questions for CNN
Have you seen the ads around the web (and on the air) for CNN anchor Lou Dobbs (wish I could find some examples)? What office is he running for?
And is there any doubt who CNN wants to win the midterms? If so, it was answered when CNN decided to air a 6-part series entitled "Broken Government" in the last days before the election.
But does a network that defends its teaming up with snipers killing Americans have any credibility left?
If this is impartiality and responsible journalism, give me Fox any day.
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One Stop Shopping
There are a number of good sites to read the latest prognostications on what will happen on election day. For easy reference, I've created a short list of the ones I use most frequently at the top of the column to the left ("Election Forecasts"). From here you can quickly check on what some of the best election analysts are predicting.
I know I'm missing some sites; I'll add them as I can.
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Sabato's Latest
He predicts a 20-25 seat (or more) gain for the Democrats in the House. He rates the Senate as a 50-50 proposition.
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Lieberman Leads Lamont Big
Lieberman can start to focus on which party he wants to caucus with next year.
It's looking like the Senate will be awfully close next year. It's possible that Lieberman could be the one who decides whether the Democrats or the Republicans control the Senate.
Why would he choose to sit with the Democrats? He is young enough to run for re-election in six years, and unless he has already decided not to seek re-election, he ought to begin to plan as if he will run. So why would he choose to try to rebuild bridges with the MoveOn/DailyKos base in Connecticut, instead of sticking with the Republicans who will deliver him a victory? The DailyKos crowd will only hate him more after his independent candidacy, and the only way to win them over will be to move to the left of Teddy Kennedy.
Plus, even if the Democrats gain 5 seats in the Senate, then he would still be in the Majority if he switched sides. In fact, in such a circumstance, he could probably write his own ticket.
Update: This is the sort of thing that ought to help Lieberman decide to conference with the Republicans. His home-state colleague and old friend Chris Dodd has taped a commercial with Lamont, even when it seems clear that Lamont is headed for defeat. What would motivate Dodd to do that?
He's thinking about running for President in 2008, and he knows he'll need the DailyKos crowd to win the primary. So if it comes to making Joe Lieberman happy or making the Fever Swamp happy, it's no contest.
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Speaker... Hoyer?
No, won't be Speaker Hoyer. Frankly, if the Democrats win the House, it's almost impossible it would be anyone but Nancy Pelosi. However, the Washington Times (registration required) hits the topic only a few days after the Influence Peddler.
Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's prospects for becoming the nation's first female House speaker depend not only on a Democratic victory in November but also on her ability to prevent any Democrats from voting against her -- primarily centrists opposed to her liberal stances.
At least one Democratic House candidate has pledged not to support Mrs. Pelosi, and others in conservative districts have refused to commit their support -- potentially leaving Mrs. Pelosi shy of the 218 votes required for the chamber's top post.
Democrat Charlie Stuart, who hopes to unseat Republican Rep. Ric Keller in Florida, already has said he opposes Mrs. Pelosi and would prefer Rep. Steny H. Hoyer, the more conservative No. 2 Democrat in the House whose strained relations with Mrs. Pelosi have been well-chronicled on Capitol Hill.
"He's a centrist," Stuart spokeswoman Sultana Ali said of the Florida Democrat. "His values really are more in line with Steny Hoyer than Nancy Pelosi."
At least three other Democrats contacted by The Washington Times refused to commit their support to Mrs. Pelosi, whose San Francisco district is far more liberal than the districts that are up for grabs in this election.
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Some Nice GOP Polls...
Courtesy of Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.
Survey USA finds Tom Reynolds back in the lead. By the way, this is a longtime Republican district. Since the Foley scandal broke, I've felt that it should at least be competitive for Reynolds. Hopefully this is a sign he's through the worst.
Siena College shows Sweeney back in control.
Lamborn doing well in GOP stronghold.
And in a surprising poll, Eric Dickerson (no, not that one) leads Julia Carson. Count on the NRCC quickly doing another poll in this district to see if it produces the same results. If so, Eric Dickerson is about to get a million or two.
By the way, is Taegan the name of a man or a woman?
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Where the NRCC is Putting Its Money
AKA: Putting Away Occam's Razor
According to CQ, lots of the NRCC's late spending is going into defending GOP held seats. In a year like this, that makes a great deal of sense.
It's disturbing that so far, the polls don't seem to show consistent improvement for the candidates who are benefiting from the spending. But there could be several reasons for that - district-by-district polls are spotty, not all the money has been spent, etc.
I have decided that this is the appropriate time to let readers know that in explaining why so many GOP candidates are doing poorly in polls, I have officially decided to set aside Occam's Razor. Between now and election day, my theories will be based on what I will call Bonhoeffer's Razor. It will be guided by this Bonhoeffer quote:
The essence of optimism is that it takes no account of the present, but it is a source of inspiration, of vitality and hope where others have resigned; it enables a man to hold his head high, to claim the future for himself and not to abandon it to his enemy
Sekptics should be aware that Bonhoeffer's Razor is already in use elsewhere in the blogosphere.
Anyway, for those keeping score at home, here are the 10 districts where the GOP is spending the most money:
Since Sept. 1, the single district receiving the most such attention from the NRCC, with $2.4 million in expenditures, is Ohio’s 18th District — the seat where the Republicans’ hold has been put at dire risk by the conviction on corruption charges of retiring six-term Republican Rep. Bob Ney. The NRCC is extending itself to help Republican state Sen. Joy Padgett, who became the party’s nominee last month after Ney acknowledged guilt in a case involving convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and renounced the nomination for re-election that he won in May.
The $2.4 million exceeds the total amounts raised by either major party candidate — Padgett or Democratic nominee Zack Space, an elected municipal attorney — as October began (key House race fundraising).
The NRCC has also divided $6.2 million almost evenly among three districts in the suburbs of Philadelphia where GOP incumbents face difficult races: the 6th, where two-term Rep. Jim Gerlach is opposed by Democratic lawyer Lois Murphy in a tossup race; the 7th, where 10-term Rep. Curt Weldon is an underdog against Democrat Joe Sestak, a retired Navy vice admiral; and the 8th, where freshman Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick is opposed by Democratic lawyer Patrick Murphy, an Iraq war veteran.
The House GOP campaign unit also has independently spent $1.8 million since Sept. 1 in Florida’s 22nd District, where 13-term Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. and Democratic state Sen. Ron Klein have been raising substantial sums on their own in a contest that is too close to call.
The top 10 districts in which the NRCC reported the most independent expenditures since Sept. 1 are rounded out by:
• Iowa’s 1st ($1.57 million): Republican businessman Mike Whalen faces Democratic lawyer Bruce Braley for the seat of eight-term Rep. Jim Nussle, the Republican nominee for governor, in a district that leans Democratic in presidential races.
• Minnesota’s 6th ($1.50 million): Republican state Sen. Michele Bachmann faces Democrat Patty Wetterling, a child safety advocate. Though the district typically leans Republican, Wetterling had a strong candidate debut in 2004 as the challenger to Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, who left the seat open this year to run for the Senate.
• Connecticut’s 2nd ($1.47 million): Republican Rep. Rob Simmons faces Democrat Joe Courtney, a former state House member, in an eastern Connecticut district that normally has a decided Democratic lean. Courtney is viewed as running a stronger campaign than he did in 2002, when he lost to Simmons by 8 points.
• Indiana’s 9th ($1.42 million): Freshman Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel is opposed by Democratic former Rep. Baron P. Hill, who beat Sodrel as the incumbent in 2002 but was then unseated by him in 2004 by a razor-thin margin.
• New York’s 24th ($1.40 million): GOP Rep. Sherwood Boehlert’s moderate views easily kept this competitive upstate district in his party’s hands over 12 terms, but the seat is up for grabs with Boehlert’s retirement. Republican state Sen. Ray Meier, who is more conservative on some issues than Boehlert, is defending the seat against a vigorous challenge by Democrat Michael Arcuri, a county district attorney.
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What do Bored Reporters Do?
They tell you what the House Ethics Committee has for lunch.
...Trandahl’s testimony went on for so long that an ethics committee employee bought lunch for lawmakers in the cafeteria in the Capitol’s basement. She ordered four hotdogs, two tuna sandwiches on rye bread, and a turkey sandwich on wheat bread.
I regard this is another example of how the Republican majority has lost its way. If the Spirit of 1994 still prevailed, the GOP would have shut down the Capitol cafeteria and eaten the egg salad sandwiches and string cheese that they brought from home.
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Biggest 'Sorry' in History
I've said sorry for lots of things: sorry I stayed out so late, sorry I forgot to put dinner on, sorry I didn't get the car serviced... People say it takes a big man to say I'm sorry, so good for me.
But if I am a big man, Kim Jong Il is Goliath and Paul Bunyan rolled into one. He's issued the biggest 'sorry' the world has ever seen: 'sorry I detonated that nuclear weapon.'
Can you imagine what a paragon of virtue he'll be if he says sorry for the missile tests, the hair cut, and starving his people?
On the subject of big apologies, it reminds me of the Kids in the Hall clip below. It's great if you like Kids in the Hall, but don't watch if you won't laugh at a joke about cancer.
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Thursday, October 19, 2006
A Close Run Thing
Bob Novak says that if the election were held today, Democrats would gain 20 House seats and 4 Senate seats. He says however, that there's a chance for a runaway Democratic victory if the Republican base becomes dispirited.
Of course, projecting a 20 seat House gain implies that the House is still in reach for the GOP.
I think that sounds about right. Let's see what the next few weeks hold.
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Good GOP Senate News
The latest poll numbers at The Corner show improvements for Republican Senate candidates across the board. Yesterday's Survey USA poll shows Cardin and Steele tied (although the WSJ/Zogby result today shows a Cardin lead).
WSJ/Zogby also shows Talent and Allen at 50%, Kean leading Menendez, and Corker leading Ford. And if you're a 'glass-half-full' type, then DeWine and Santorum trail their Democratic challengers by somewhat less dauting numbers...
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For a Laugh
What if Al Qaeda recruited like the Mormons (although I've only ever seen Jehovah's Witnesses recruit like this; do Mormons do it too?):
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Ugh...
Is this what waterboarding is like? The constant drip, drip, drip, that leaves you feeling like you're being drowned? I thought Democrats all agreed that it was inappropriate and unacceptable.
It will be extremely hard for the GOP to pull out a win if the Foley story stays on the front pages through election day.
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Stingrays Continue Their Assault
Clearly some sort of coordinated attack has begun. First they took out the guy that they thought was our leader, then they take out a Massachusetts man, and now they're coming for the rest of us.
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