Immigration Endgame

Fred Barnes writes about a coming Republican victory on immigration. He says that polling clearly shows strong support for 'earned citizenship' for illegal immigrants in the US, causing Republican leaders to stand firmly with the President for a comprehensive bill. He says that latino activists were sufficiently angry with Senate Democrats for blocking the Senate's comprehensive bill before the Easter recess, that they are now compelled to work honestly for the compromise they claim they want.

Under this scenario, when Congress comes back to Washington the week of April 24, Senate Democrats will join with a majority of Republicans to pass a bill that includes border enforcement and an earned legalization program. The House has already passed an enforcement only bill (search for "HR 4437" here). The two bills will be merged by a conference committee, and Republican leaders will make sure the bill includes earned legalization. Then that consensus product will be passed by both Houses, and sent to the President for signature.

Assuming Senate Democrats 'play ball,' the big question is: can the bill pass the House? Thirty-six House Democrats voted for the enforcement-only bill, and more might join a bill that includes earned legalization. Only 17 Republicans voted against HR 4437, but how many more will join them if the bill contains an amnesty? Tom Tancredo (R-CO) claims to have more than 20 Republicans who are dead-set against such a bill. How many will actually vote 'no' on a top issue against their leadership and their President?

As I have noted before, standard operating procedure for House Republicans is that they do not vote on controversial measures that require Democratic support to pass. This will clearly be one of those situations. I bet Majority Whip Roy Blunt is working hard to figure out where the votes are, in case it comes to that.

I'll stick with my prediction that House Republicans won't do it, and that there will not be an immigration bill this year.