Whither Amnesty?

Opponents of the Senate immigration deal shouldn't lose sight of the fact that this is far from becoming law. While it may pass the Senate (although today's vote calls that into question), and it has the support of the President, House passage is a huge question mark.

House Republicans have become extremely concerned about motivating their base for this November's mid-term elections. That base will clearly not be motivated by a bill they perceive as an amnesty. In fact, they are much more likely to be motivated by a fight against such a bill.

And what was the response from House Republican leaders to news of the Senate deal? Silence.

The media has hit House Republicans for running roughshod over the Democratic Minority, and there's truth to that. The management style has been not to pass bills that significantly divide House Republicans - or to put it another way, not to consider bills that need significant Democratic support to pass. And how many House Republicans support an amnesty? Go to the Congressional information website Thomas, and look up H.R. 884. This is the most significant 'amnesty' bill introduced in the House this Congress. I count about a dozen Republicans cosponsors.

Certainly given the relatively small margin of control in the House, and the strong opposition of a majority of House Republicans, there is no way to pass this bill without many Democratic votes. And for what it's worth, there are about 200 House Democrats who reflexively vote against any bill brought to the floor by House leadership. I have to agree with Tom Tancredo: there is no way to pass anything like the Senate bill.

My prediction: the House will not consider a bill that includes anything close to the current Senate compromise - at least not before the November elections.