Thursday, May 25, 2006

Without Tom Davis...

Great catch by Rich Lowry over at National Review. You can bet the farm that whatever decision House Republicans ultimately make on immigration, Tom Davis will be on the 'winning' side. He is a bellwether Member among the 'moderately conservative,' and his views on Congressional campaigns are seen as gospel.

Look at it this way. There are 30-50 House Republicans who are guaranteed to vote against any amnesty bill. Probably all the rest of the House Republicans are people who could vote either way, depending on circumstance. Among those, Tom Davis is a major figure - one whose instinct is to be with the leadership, and to help the leadership look good - he is not a bomb thrower.

The upshot is that he will be looked to for counsel, and he will make every effort to back the decision of the leadership team. As negative as he sounds about an amnesty, it will be hard to swing a large group of GOP Members to back one. I can't imagine more than 50 Republicans would back an amnesty bill that Tom Davis opposes.

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