Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Electoral Map Gets Redder in 2012

Polidata crunches the numbers from the latest census estimates, and reports that Texas and Florida will gain as many as 6 House seats after the 2010 census, with new seats as well for Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Utah. New York and Ohio are likely to lose 2 seats each. While Ohio has been fertile ground for GOP Presidential candidates, we'll take that trade - particularly if Iowa, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania are among the states losing seats, as well.

Are the Republicans a regional party or a national party? Are Democrats still in the ascendancy? Neither will matter as much if about 10 electoral votes just moved straight from the 'safe Democrat' column to the 'safe Republican' one.

Update: Welcome KausFiles readers!

Mickey wonders whether the new districts added will 'invariably' be Republican. I don't assert that they would be; I'm just saying that they will add electoral votes in states that consistently vote Republican (not necessarily House seats). Of course, a given Democratic candidate could certainly win Florida - or Arizona, or Nevada, for that matter. But for the next few elections at least, those appear to be pretty strong GOP states.

And as to what 'Republican' will mean in 2010, it could certainly be different from today - particularly if Giuliani is somehow the GOP nominee in 2008. But I suspect it will mean largely what it means today.

Update II: Guess I should have been clearer the first time! Michael Barone has linked me for the first time, but he too, thought I was talking about additional House seats! The good news however, is that Barone does think that the shift of 10 House seats from the North and East to the South and West will benefit the GOP - but perhaps not by as many as ten seats. Still, I'll take it.

Back to the top.

No comments: