Key Republicans Improving Position

The Hotline picks up polls of three bellwether races for determining House control. They show Clay Shaw, Rob Simmons and Peter Roskam all leading in their races. Although anything is possible, you'd think that if all three of those people win their races, the chances of Democrats taking the House are rather slim.

Democrats currently count about 10 Republican seats that are certain gains. Simmons and Shaw probably fall into the tier right after that - seats they'll need to get to a 15 or 20 seat gain.

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