White House Shakeup

Looks like we can count on a shakeup of the President's team. Josh Bolten and Scott McClellan signalled as much today, as reported everywhere. The New York Times finds a way to twist the dagger, even as they try to describe such shakeups as normal:

Staff changes are common in a president's second term, as he and his most trusted associates try to preserve their influence and ward off the impression that they are sliding toward lame-duck irrelevance. President Bush has been beset by sagging support for the war in Iraq, as reflected in public-opinion polls, and has lost momentum on some of his domestic-policy goals as well.

The obvious likely change is John Snow at Treasury, since the administration has not gotten any credit for a strong economy on his watch. Snow has little to do with that of course, but if you're going to have a shakeup you have to dismiss someone. Rob Portman is an obvious rising star in the party, and would be a good pick. Supporters of expanded trade would be disappointed to lose him from USTR, but at least the Treasury Secretary has substantial infuence on trade discussions, so Portman could continue to push for progress in the Doha Round and in trade talks with China.

It appears that Rumsfeld is not going anywhere, but we'll need to get rid of another Secretary or two for this to qualify as a shakeup. We can probably rule out changes at HHS, DHS, Energy, State, Education, Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, and the VA. All of those Secretaries assumed their duties in 2005, and none is really regarded as doing a bad job. That leaves Elaine Chao at Labor, Norm Mineta at Transportation, and Alphonso Jackson at HUD. Any or all of those three could be candidates for replacement. The first two have been in their jobs for the whole of the Bush Presidency, and Jackson has been at HUD for a little over 2 years. None is a star, and Mineta in particular has been criticized for the failure to increase airline security under his watch. Replacing Mineta might help Bush energize his base and promote turnout in the Fall. I would bet heavily on Mineta's moving on.

Since the White House is looking for a shakeup to generate some excitement - or at least to change the headlines for a few weeks - you'll try to find interesting and capable replacements, rather than just retreads. In a challenging election year, the White House will look to people who are not currently running for re-election in swing states or districts. That typically means retiring officials, but I don't see any likelies there. Names like Kenny Guinn, Dirk Kempthorne, Bill Frist and Henry Hyde don't work.

Moving past retirees on the list, the names that jump out at me as having potential are:

Bobby Jindal (LA) - a rising star
To raise a brilliant and successful young South Asian to a position of prominence would help generate buzz, while strengthening the President's team.

John Cornyn (TX) - close to the President
Cornyn is extremely bright, and has built a strong following in his short time as a national figure. Plus, there's almost no chance that a Democrat would win his seat in Texas.

Paul Ryan (WI)
Another bright candidate and good communicator, popular with the Right