Big Week for Katherine Harris

Next Friday, May 12, is the Florida filing deadline for Bill Nelson's Senate seat (the primary is scheduled for September 5). Polls suggest that Harris' race against Nelson is hopeless, and with the approach of the filing deadline, there's a steady drumbeat of calls for another candidate to jump in. It also doesn't help that her former staffers have asserted that she had a real devotion to the interests of the lobbyist who bribed Duke Cunningham and who also donated to her. For her part, Harris says she's in the race to stay, and will spend a fortune to win.

The focus is clearly on State House Speaker Allan Bense, whom I had never heard of a few weeks ago. Congressman Mark Foley (subscription required) recently called for him to declare for the race:

SENATE RACES - Foley Touts Substitute For Harris In Senate Race
© National Journal Group, Inc.

Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., said Wednesday the chances are "very, very ... slim" he would enter the Republican primary for the right to chance to challenge Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, but enthusiastically noted that state House Speaker Allan Bense might enter the GOP primary against Harris."He is a multimillionaire who can self-fund. It shifts the race to competitive instantly," Foley said.Foley, who dropped out of the 2004 Senate race, said that Nelson's campaign warchest, which had $10.3 million on hand as of March 31, makes the race out of reach for most other Republicans.He said a Bense challenge to Harris, who won notoriety among Republicans for her role in the 2000 presidential race, would be "formidable."The end of the Florida legislative session is today, one week before the state's May 12 filing deadline. GOP Gov. Jeb Bush, who has ruled out a Senate bid, has urged Bense to consider the race.The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which last year expressed doubts about Harris' general election viability, has since acknowledged Harris as the race's dominant GOP candidate.An NRSC spokesman today declined to comment about a possible Bense candidacy.

It looks like the other shoe is about to drop. After all this talk, it looks like Bense will get in some time in the next week - probably sooner rather than later. Harris will have the opportunity to step aside. I really doubt that she will, as she fell on her sword for now-Senator Mel Martinez in 2004, when she had originally intended to run for the Senate. If she drops out now, why would she ever run again? Particularly since a Bense victory would likely mean that no Florida Senate seat would come open for at least a decade? The question will become whether - at some point down the road - Harris decides that she can't beat Bense, and stops active campaigning.

I feel badly for Katherine Harris. She did the right thing in the 2000 Presidential race, and her political career was probably forever hurt because of it. She went from unknown to instantly-recognized in the blink of an eye, and the nature of the defining event was such that she could probably never change the impression that voters had formed of her - for better or worse. She became such a vilified and polarizing figure that she can probably never be elected to higher office.

I hope that she steps aside gracefully, but it will be difficult to do.

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