National Review's Rich Lowry makes a valid point about the May Day protests. He says they contribute to a sense that things are out of control, which hurts the President. That may be true as far as it goes.
At the same time, those marches call more attention to the issue of immigration generally, and I think that helps Congressional Republicans. For better or worse, there are lots of Republican voters out there who are very upset about illegal immigration. They're some of the same people that helped deliver House Republicans a 54-seat pickup in 1994. By standing firmly against an amnesty, I believe House Republicans are giving their conservative base a real reason to come out in support this fall. I'll need to watch the polling data to see if the conservative base is starting to improve its view of Republicans in Congress.
If this is correct, I think Bush's standing is likely to improve as well, as the base 'comes home' for Republicans generally.
I'm starting to wonder whether this may be the year of the Lou Dobbs voter. Dobbs is a demagogue who either underwent an epiphany when space.com failed, or doesn't believe half of what he says. Nevertheless, he stands for some causes that look pretty popular right now: wariness of international trade, opposition to illegal immigration, and throwing the bums out of Washington. Now take a look at the latest CBS News Poll on voter priorities:
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" Open-ended
War in Iraq 23%
Gas costs/Heating oil 13%
Economy/Jobs 12%
Immigration 8%
Terrorism (general) 3%
What is Congress debating this month? Lobbying reform, foreign investments like the Dubai Ports World deal, gas prices, immigration restrictions, China's unfair trade practices... sound like anyone we know? It seems that Lou Dobbs has his finger on the pulse this year.
As the party in power, Republicans are poorly-positioned to 'take advantage,' but Democrats have weaknesses on ethics, immigration, and the war on terror. It'll be interesting to watch.
Welcome Instapundit readers, and thanks, Glenn for the traffic. As long as you're here, please look around the site. Or, just take a look at Kristin Kreuk.
Welcome again, Instapundit readers. Feel free to check recent posts (at the top left), including an explanation of how Congress will enact a border-enforcement-only immigration bill before the midterms.
Thursday, May 04, 2006
Soccer Moms, Security Moms... Lou Dobbs Moms?
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7 comments:
Dobbsd may not be your cup of tea but he takes a stand and stays with it, unlike those we voted into congress, who waver with each and every cause till they are told by Bush which way to go or remian confused, like the Democrats. At the moment, gas prices top priority for voters. Bush--now repeat--is not going to get his support back. Simple: he is no longer viewed as a guy who tells the truth.
In Bush's mind, he's not classically lying, he's modifying indenfensible positions. Additionally, Bush is moving into fanaticism every bit as much as Bin Laden and Zarqawi are. He is obviously in a different part of the religious spectrum, but nevertheless he's become a fanatic in his way. That's likely why he seems to 'understand' the threat they prrsent: he's one with them.
Thanks for your comments!
My only point on Dobbs is that he doesn't 'take a stand and stay with it.' He was a different person when he was on CNN before 1999, and since his return, he's told his TV audience one thing and subscribers to his investment advice another:
http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001397.html
I think you are right about immigration protests helping the Republicans. The biggest problem that Republicans may be facing this fall is the number Republican voters who stay home because they don't feel today's party represents their concerns. Immigration may be the issue that convinces them it is still important to keep Democrats out of power.
However, this assumes that immigration is still a major issue come fall elections. By that time, the May Day protests will be a distant memory. If there aren't any new major actions this fall, immigration probably will not be a significant issue.
Well, I, for one, am just turning 18 and will be voting Republican in Virginia. I sure would like it if the GOP got back to its conservative, term-limit-enforcing, line-item-veto-pushing, tax- and spending-cutting base, though.
Here is a great article on exactly this subject. It makes the case the the climate is ripe for a 3rd party candidate in 2008, as there is no clear left-right divide on this issue. The political map has been divided into four quadrants, rather than just 2 sides.
Bush is the main reason why there are millions more illegal aliens here than there would be even if the Clinton administration had continued. Many or most of those who oppose illegal immigration fully realize that Bush is on the other side. IOW, there will be no coming home for millions of former Bush supporters.
It's good to see BushBots like Hugh Hewitt holding on though.
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