Bush Recognizes Inevitable

The New York Times reports that the President is backing down on his insistence that Congress send him a comprehensive immigration bill. This is merely a recognition of political reality, and is no surprise.

The question now is what a compromise might look like. It appears that there is substantial support for a 'phased-in trigger' for a guestworker program - from the President, in the Senate, and even in the House. But a trigger like the one currently being talked about has to balance enforcement with a guestworker program. Most House Republicans want to make sure that enforcement happens - or no guestworker program. The President and his allies in the House and Senate don't want the guestworker program to be held hostage to enforcement which - let's face it - has never worked in the past. How do you split this baby?

A trigger-based deal is a lot easier to talk about than nail down.

I talked about this at length about a week ago, here.

My bet is that the trigger mechanism specifies milestones for the implementation of the enforcement measures - sections of fence built, Border Patrol agents deployed, employment raids conducted - and links them to phases of the guestworker program. It will give the President the authority to go ahead with parts of the guestworker program if - after consultation with Congressional leaders - he is satisfied that enforcement is succeeding, considering the criteria named in the bill (fencing, apprehensions, workplace raids, etc., etc.). Would something built around this framework satisfy all concerned? Well, the ball is in the House Republican court.

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