Don't Look Now...

But the GOP appears to have a chance at Mark Foley's seat:

Poll: Democrat Leads In Former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley's District

Oct. 16 - The Democratic candidate running for the House seat once held by Mark Foley has a slim lead over a Republican rival, according to a newspaper poll published Sunday.

Democrat Tim Mahoney led Republican state Rep. Joe Negron 48 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided, according to the poll commissioned by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers.

Negron is filling the campaign vacancy left after six-term congressman Foley resigned amid reports that he exchanged sexually explicit Internet messages with teenage boys who worked on Capitol Hill.

Foley's name will remain on the ballot, with any votes cast for him going to Negron.

The poll also found that many voters in the 16th Congressional District in South Florida say their voting plans will not be influenced by the scandal.

According to the poll, 71 percent, including two-thirds of Democrats, said the scandal would have "no effect" on whether they would cast ballots for Mahoney on Nov. 7. And 72 percent said the page scandal would not influence their voting patterns in other races.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Maryland-based Research 2000 conducted the telephone survey of 600 likely voters in District 16 Wednesday through Friday for the newspapers.

If Negron is within 7 points, he has a chance.

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