Handwriting on the Wall for Congressman Doolittle?

Roll Call reports that House Republican leaders are pushing California's John Doolittle to decide not to seek re-election:

With polls showing his presumed Democratic opponent beating him in 2008, embattled Rep. John Doolittle (R-Calif.) is under pressure from House Republican leaders to retire at the end of this term.

House GOP leadership held its fire until some time after Labor Day, hoping Doolittle would see the political writing on the wall over the summer and voluntarily choose retirement. But with the Congressman digging in and promising to run for re-election, the leadership of his Conference — urged on by some rank-and-file Members — has held private discussions with Doolittle in an effort to convince him to retire.

Leadership “is telling him that the financial resources are not going to be there, at least from Members, and that he should step aside,” said one Republican House Member. “Everybody likes John. He’s a very likable guy, and there’s no animosity toward him whatsoever. But he’s not — rightly or wrongly — going to be able to win...”

A survey conducted over the summer by Republican pollster Chris Wilson found Brown with a 20-point lead over Doolittle, 51 percent to 31 percent. Doolittle’s favorable-to-unfavorable was 28 percent to 56 percent, with 50 percent of respondents saying the Congressman should either retire or resign. Only 33 percent of those polled thought Doolittle should run for re-election...

Some Republican Members believe Doolittle might do more than jeopardize what should be a safe GOP seat. They worry that the ongoing federal investigation into his dealings as a Congressman could drag down the party by reminding voters of the unethical behavior that helped defeat several of their colleagues last year.

“I went to leadership and said you have to send message, and they said they did,” a second Republican House Member said.

This individual added that Doolittle’s appeals for donations to his legal defense fund have gone largely unanswered while GOP Members wait to see if the Congressman will follow through with his pledge to run for re-election.

The Republicans interviewed for this story say the grumbling over Doolittle, both on Capitol Hill and in California, is likely to remain private until sometime in January.

Not only is there pressure from Capitol Hill for Mr. Doolittle to step aside, but one of his primary opponents has outraised him so far -- a very rare thing for a challenger:

Doolittle raised only $50,308.00 with more than half of that coming from PACs. He now has cash on hand of $37,995.10.

Compare that to Eric Egland.

With our help, Eric raised $79,000.00 and he now has cash on hand of $70,000.00!

Without help from DC Republicans, that's not likely to get a lot better for Doolittle.

Hoekstra: 'Purge the Party; Purge the Institution'

Read it at the Standard.

Hillary Clinton: Albatross or Millstone?

That's the finding of Democratic pollster Celinda Lake:

A recent survey by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, however, showed Clinton and Obama trailing former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani (R) in the 31 Democratic-held House districts regarded as most imperiled in 2008, and even potentially serving as a drag on those lawmakers' reelection chances.

The poll was conducted in August but has not been previously reported. It paints a "sobering picture" for Democrats, according to a memo by Lake and Daniel Gotoff that accompanies the poll report.

Giuliani takes 49 percent to Clinton's 39 percent, while the former mayor's lead over Obama is far smaller, 41 percent to 40 percent. "Despite Obama's relative advantage over Clinton, both candidates are significantly underperforming against the generic Democratic edge in the presidential and even against party identification," Lake and Gotoff wrote.

The news gets worse for Obama and Clinton as one delves deeper into the survey.

While the average lead of Democratic House members stands at 19 percentage points in the 31 vulnerable districts -- all but two of which are part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's incumbent-protection program known as Frontline -- that number sinks considerably when the lawmakers are linked to either front-runner.

"Some people say [your Democratic incumbent] is a strong supporter of Hillary Clinton and will support her liberal agenda of big government and higher taxes if she becomes president," the poll stated, before asking respondents whether they would still vote for their incumbent or choose a Republican candidate.

Whether the question named Clinton or Obama, the Democratic incumbent's lead shrank to an average of six points: 47 percent to 41 percent with Clinton leading the ticket, 44 percent to 38 percent with Obama as the nominee.

Recall too, that this is the finding in the 31 most endangered Democratic seats -- most of them held by freshmen who won last year. As Members seeking their first re-election, they are inherently vulnerable.

But if this is the outcome in the Democratic seats, what will it be in the GOP-held seats? Right now Democrats speak confidently of expanding their majority; they're looking at the open seats of retiring Members like Ray LaHood, Deborah Pryce, Jim Ramstad, and others. But if Hillary or Barack is a drag in those seats held by Democrats, they will be a millstone around the necks of challengers in GOP-leaning seats.

It all calls to mind that wonderful Hillary 'defense' from Representative Earl Pomeroy:

“It’s way too early to conclude that Hillary would be a disaster downballot for the party”

I'm not sure it is too early.

Cynthia McKinney Ponders Another Run for Congress

Read it at the Standard.

With Craig on His Way Out, Who Will Follow?

For years liberals and Democrats have whispered that Larry Craig is gay, and tried to get someone in the MSM to run with the story. Now there's a hook. I won't reproduce unpleasant details that you can read at any of several other sites. Check out HotAir, Sister Toldjah, the Politico, and Captains Quarters.

It seems just a matter of time before Craig steps down -- particularly since Idaho has a Republican Governor, and he would appoint a Republican successor. That person would likely be favored to retain the seat in Fall, 2008.

But the Craig scandal is a reminder of the numerous Republican incumbents still operating under ethical clouds -- Ted Stevens, John Doolittle, Jerry Lewis, Don Young, and others. Republican leaders in Congress have been pleased to see a few step aside whose re-election runs would have been made much tougher by ethical questions. Will this lead to a full-court press to get some other Members to spend more time with their families?

It'll be interesting to see if any of the other Members under investigation soon announce that they are leaving public service. Certainly if you are John Boehner or Mitch McConnell, this is a wake-up call that the ethics issue may still cut against Republicans in 2008 -- and may cost you more seats -- if embarrassing incumbents are running for re-election while making headlines for corruption.

Pryce to Step Down

We covered here the other day the news that Dennis Hastert was preparing to announce his decision not to seek re-election. Now Deborah Pryce will announce the same.

Pryce's district has a PVI of just +1 Republican. That means on the average, the Republican candidate runs just 1 percentage point better than the Democratic candidate. It's a classic swing seat.

Give the huge year Democrats had in Ohio in 2006, you can bet the seat will be heavily targeted. In a presidential year, coattails could prove decisive.

Where's Nancy?

The guys at RedState are looking for volunteers to head to a fundraiser in New Hampshire.

Freshman Democrats Plan Ethics Action

According to Roll Call, they're frustrated that House Democratic leadership has been slow on ethics reform. They recognize that if they cannot tell the voters that they did something to clean up Washington, they'll be behind the 8 ball come election day:

Frustrated that the House task force assigned to review the ethics complaint process has yet to issue an official recommendation after nearly six months, freshman Democrats are mulling the introduction of their own proposal, lawmakers said...

Nonetheless, several freshman Democratic lawmakers — many of whom campaigned on anti-corruption platforms in the fall — said they have discussed moving ahead with an independent proposal to reform the ethics process, potentially before the House begins its monthlong August recess.

“It could include a new proposal,” said one Democratic freshman who discussed the issue with other House freshmen last week and asked not to be identified...

Many freshman lawmakers had earlier endorsed a proposal by Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) that called for abolishing the Committee on Standards of Official Conduct and replacing it with an independent, bipartisan commission, but it is not clear if that legislation will be up for consideration when freshmen meet to discuss an ethics proposal.

First off, you can interpret this article as a shot across the bow of leadership. The Freshmen want something done, and talking to Roll Call about it is a clear sign to the Speaker and other leaders that they take this very seriously.

Second off, if they are politically astute, they will endorse the idea of an outside, impartial ethics review body. The voters are likely to regard any ethics reform cynically, but giving authority to investigate and discipline Members to an outside body is one thing that might make a substantive difference -- particularly if such an entity was actually up and running by election day next year.

Mac Collins Preparing for House Comeback

Roll Call reports that one of the few Democrats who almost lost last year may face another chellenge from former Representative Mac Collins. For Republicans, that may not be good news:

Collins, who lost to Marshall last year by fewer than 2,000 votes, has made clear he is considering running again. However, many observers have believed — or better yet hoped — that ultimately Collins would pass after seeing much of the state and national Republican establishment coalesce behind retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard (R), who already is in the race.

Goddard, on paper at least, appears to be the GOP’s dream candidate in a district that tilts heavily toward Republicans in national elections. Goddard has been recruited to run before, and party leaders were ecstatic when he decided to get in the race this time.

But if Collins were to enter the race, there is little doubt the move would cause a debilitating primary — one that would produce a battered and cash-strapped nominee.

An embarrassment of riches is not always a good thing.

Marginal House Democrats Failing to Meet Fundraising Targets

The Hill:

Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who raised $560,000 over the last six months in his rural Indiana district, was confident that his fundraising levels, though below the DCCC goals, were on track to defend his seat.

“I’m spending my time focusing on representing the 8th district,” Ellsworth said. “But I’m right where I need to be to communicate with voters when the campaign begins.”

Rep. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) raised about the same amount.

“Anytime somebody sets out a goal for you, you want to do everything you can to attain it,” Walz campaign spokesman Richard Carlbom said. “We got to $565,000; we’re incredibly proud of that number.”

Freshman Frontline Reps. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) and Ron Klein (Fla.) led the pack, each exceeding the goal with more than $1 million. Rep. Steve Kagen (Wis.) had the lowest fundraising total, at $420,000, and Reps. Michael Arcuri (N.Y.) and Ciro Rodriguez (Texas) also raised less than $500,000.

Most Democrats fell just short of the fundraising goals. In addition to Ellsworth and Walz, Reps. Heath Shuler (N.C.), Zack Space (Ohio), Nick Lampson (Texas), Paul Hodes (N.H.) and Chris Carney (Pa.) raised more than $500,000.
Rep. John Yarmuth (Ky.) raised $600,000.

They may have failed to meet the goals, but many of these Representatives should probably feel the same way Ellsworth does. Their total may not meet the $600K target, but it suggests that by next year they will have enough to defend their seats -- particularly since targeted Democrats are likely to have more help from the national parties than do their Republican challengers.

It points up the importance of efforts like this.

Cindy Sheehan's First Campaign Commercial

Heh, heh.

GOP Looking at Wealth of Candidates Against Carney

We've looked before at the vulnerable Democratic freshmen whose re-election races will help determine whether Nancy Pelosi remains Speaker of the House, or returns to her former job as Minority Leader. The Politico reports that the GOP looks likely to have two great candidates against one of the most heavily-targeted of the new Democrats -- Chris Carney:

From the outset of the 2008 cycle, Republicans have viewed U.S. Attorney Tom Marino as their favored candidate to run against freshman Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.). As a political outsider with law enforcement credentials, Marino seemed well-positioned to craft an independent image and emerge as the party's front-runner.

But within the past few weeks, a possible second candidate has impressed Republican officials and could create a battle for the nomination against one of the Democrats' more vulnerable freshmen.

Dan Meuser, the president of Pride Mobility Products, a wheelchair manufacturing company in Exeter, Pa., is leaning toward entering the race. He is no stranger to Washington, having spent time before Congress lobbying on behalf of his company and advocating for disability rights. And he is positioned to announce his candidacy before Marino, sometime within the next month.

I'll be attending a session at the NRCC today, organized by Rob Bluey. Hopefully I'll learn more about some of the races to watch for 2008.