Hooray! Weak Dollar Means Higher Prices, Less Choice

For years politicians have worried about the trade deficit. The answer from the economist has been two-fold:

1. Don't worry; it won't last forever; and,
2. The trade deficit will 'solve itself' when the dollar gets weak enough to drive up import prices so Americans can't afford as many imports.

Looks like politicians are getting their wish:

Weakness in the dollar means prices of imported goods, particularly oil, will go up, raising the risk of inflation. American consumers will be paying more soon, with the looming threat of paying even more later on.

"The inflation risk from higher import prices will be the dominant initial effect," said Howard Chernick, an economics professor at Hunter College in New York. "The most immediate effect is imports denominated in dollars -- mainly oil. We already saw a spike in oil prices. So a bit down the line, that's 10 to 15 cents more per gallon of gas at the pump."

A weaker dollar can help narrow the U.S. trade deficit by making America's exports more affordable abroad...

On the other hand, the pressure on the dollar is increasing the international buyout appeal of American companies and real estate -- and Main Street itself might end up on the auction block.

The weaker dollar will also affect Americans in the long term in ways they might not have even considered, if companies here have trouble affording capital goods.
Chernick cites as an example Europe's leadership in producing wind power technology. It's a cutting-edge niche market that is suddenly even more expensive for the U.S. energy industry as the euro gains more muscle.

"The cost of increased reliance on renewable energy just went up -- so more pressure to build more coal power plants," he says. The dynamic can have far-reaching consequences.

To be sure, the effect is not all one-sided. American exports become cheaper and more expensive, and foreign tourism to the US is likely to increase. However, a weak dollar and a narrowing trade deficit isn't something consumers should look forward to.

Influence Peddler on XM Radio

I'm pleased to let you know that I will make my first appearance on XM Radio's POTUS 08 Channel next Tuesday morning (October 9), at 7:45 am Eastern Time. The appearance should run about 15 minutes, unless I embarrass myself badly and get kicked out of the studio.

Whether or not you have the chance to listen, please call up afterward and tell them that I was witty and entertaining.

Doesn't Doctor Dean Know any Sick Kids?

Here's something funny. Go to istockphoto.com ('the world's preeminent collection of member-generated royalty-free images'), and enter the search term 'sick kid' -- with no quotes. What photo do you see on the second row of the search results, third from the left. Is it this one?



















Then head over to the Democratic Party site. Here's the front page -- in case it gets changed:




I thought the Democratic party had its hand firmly on the pulse of the neediest in our society? Kind-hearted Democratic activists have intimate knowledge of the health insurance challenges faced by the poor and near-poor in America.

Couldn't they get a real person for the picture on their website?


This isn't the first time the Democrats have showed a lack of familiarity with the inside of a doctor's office.

Major Hat Tip: Patrick Ruffini discovered this but didn't have time to write it up. Bookmarks his site and head over there often.

Gallup: Americans Back White House Plan for Iraq Drawdown

Read it at the Standard.

Is Mickey Kaus 'Twisted?'

If you enjoy Mickey Kaus, and if you enjoy the diavlogs that he does with Bob Wright, then check out this one. In particular, watch the segment labeled 'Mickey Upbeat on Iraq.' There's a 'Felix & Oscar' vibe going on, starting around the 12:50 mark, when Bob tries to diagnose Mickey's psychosis.

Bob: You say you oppose the war, but you spend all your time looking for evidence that the war is going OK. That's just weird.

Listen beyond that point for predictions about movie successes, and a discussion of whether Americans go to movies to be entertained, or reminded of their nightmares.

Story of the Day

Professional athletes are often seen as vain, greedy, primadonnas. The Colorado Rockies -- who seem poised to advance to the National League Championship Series -- have gone against type.

When a team makes the playoffs, it earns a 'bonus' from Major League Baseball, tied to how far the squad advances. The players decide among themselves who's entitled to a share of the pot. They award shares among players who spent the entire year with the team, players who were traded, trainers, etc.

The Colorado Rockies have voted to award a playoff share to the widow of a coach on one of the team's minor league affiliates, who was killed by a line-drive during a game:

On July 22, Double-A Tulsa coach Mike Coolbaugh, 35, died after being hit in the neck with a line drive while coaching.

Few players on the Rockies knew Coolbaugh, who joined the organization in early July, but last week, they unanimously voted his widow a full playoff share that could be more than $350,000 if the Rockies win the World Series.

"I'm completely shocked in a good way," Coolbaugh said. "I don't even know the correct words to use. I know Mike would feel very honored and proud. This would mean a lot to him, and it means a lot to our family."

Coolbaugh said her due date is in two weeks, but her "doctor was saying with stress and everything," the baby could arrive sooner. Mandy also is the mother of two sons, Joseph, 5, and Jacob, who turned 4 last month.

The boys will throw out the first pitch before Game 3 of the National League Division Series on Saturday at Coors Field...

Teams with a chance to play in the postseason typically meet late in the regular season to decide whom to allot full shares, partial shares and cash awards.

Rockies player representative Josh Fogg brought up the possibility of giving Mandy Coolbaugh a full share, although Fogg would not take credit for the idea.

"We felt as a team it was the right thing to do," Fogg said. "We're obviously happy with the decision."

I'm not sure that it's about the money -- although the pregnant widow of a career minor leaguer can probably use it. To me it's more about the fact that the team remembered and honored a guy that few of them ever met.

Good for the Colorado Rockies.

Kirk & Scotty (RIP) for Britain's PowerGen

Funny:

Congress to Allow New Internet Taxes?

Read it at the Standard.

Netroots Nightmare: O'Hanlon Teams Up with HRC

Read it at the Standard.

Something Light

Entertainment Weekly says that Peter Jackson may be about to agree to do the long-awaited 'Hobbit' movie:

At this writing, no agreements have been announced and details of the negotiations are sketchy (neither New Line nor Jackson's camp would comment to EW on any aspect of this story), but sources close to the talks tell us that they're detecting a lot less frost in the air, and that a deal may be reached that could help usher J.R.R. Tolkien's maiden Middle-earth masterpiece to screens before the end of the decade. ''There has been a détente,'' says one insider. There is now the beginning of a discourse between Peter Jackson and New Line that's running parallel to the litigation proceedings.''

That provides a pretext for me to post the most bizarre video you'll see for a while:

Expect Craig to be Around for a While...

Senate Republicans look like they're split on calling for his resignation. And if Senator John Ensign is one of just a handful calling for him to leave, there's no reason for him to go:

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign (Nev.) on Thursday called for Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) to honor his original resignation speech and his personal commitment to Republicans that he would resign if the judge did not vitiate his guilty plea.

“He gave us his word that he would resign. ... I’m calling on Sen. Craig to keep his word,” said Ensign. “If he loves his party, and he loves the Senate, the honorable thing to do is to resign...”

However, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) applauded his home-state colleague’s decision, saying he expected the Senate Ethics Committee to delay any probe until after Craig has exhausted his opportunities to appeal the judge’s ruling today.

“Like all citizens of this country, he has the right to vigorously defend his case,” said Crapo. “I look forward to working with him in the Senate...”

But Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), an early supporter of Craig’s legal strategy, said Craig’s offense was not “moral turpitude, and it’s not a basis for leaving the Senate.”

Senate Republican leaders, however, continued to deflect questions.

“This whole matter is before the Ethics Committee. So it will be dealt with I assume by Sen. Craig and the Ethics Committee,” Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said.

So John Ensign says he should quit, Arlen Specter and Mike Crapo say he should stay, and Mitch McConnell won't take a stand yet. According to The Hill, Trent Lott says essentially the same thing. If you're Larry Craig, do you feel any more uncomfortable than you did yesterday? I don't think so. If you're Craig, and you don't see 15 or 20 colleagues saying you should quit, there's no way you resign.

And if you're not going to resign -- if you think that Senate Republicans and the people of Idaho can live with you staying in the Senate -- then why rule out running for re-election? Why not test the appetite of the American people for redemptive stories?

The filing deadline for federal races in Idaho in 2008 is in March. So if Larry Craig doesn't quit now, why wouldn't he string this along until March -- at least -- to see if it looks like he might have any chance? Sure, Craig now says that he won't seek re-election but then, he said he was going to resign until he was surprised by the degree of support he received. Want to bet he'll be surprised by the support he receives in the next few months, too?

I fear this is going to go on for a while. If Larry Craig's Republican Senate colleagues aren't comfortable with that, the better follow John Ensign's lead.

Update: Read Michelle as well.

Update II: Mickey has the quote of the day:

It looks like the only Republican who's not quitting the Senate is Larry Craig.

Great.

Arthur C. Clarke on the Anniversary of Sputnik

A fascinating interview. Read the whole thing for insights into why it can be argued that we landed on the moon 50 years too early. Some other great items:

SPECTRUM: You, Frederick Durant, and Ernst Stuhlinger were all in Barcelona at an International Astronautical Federation meeting on 4 October 1957. What was your reaction when you got the news about Sputnik?

CLARKE: Although I had been writing and speaking about space travel for years, I still have vivid memories of exactly when I heard the news. I was in Barcelona for the 8th International Astronautical Congress. We had already retired to our hotel rooms after a busy day of presentations by the time the news broke. I was awakened by reporters seeking an authoritative comment on the Soviet achievement. Our theories and speculations had suddenly become reality!

I was a toddler when Neil Armstrong walked on the moon, so Sputnik is decidedly before my time. I find it fascinating that Clarke at least, views Sputnik as a 'where were you when Kennedy was shot' moment. I recall vividly where I was when Reagan was shot, when the Challenger exploded, when Mark McGuire hit number 62, and when the 9/11 attacks occurred. Does it say more about Sputnik or Clarke that he recalls the circumstances so clearly?

[CLARKE]: The growth of space tourism will see not just quick orbital hops, but facilities for accommodation and recreation. In October 2006, the Arthur Clarke Foundation selected the American budget-hotelier Bob Bigelow for the Arthur C. Clarke Innovator Award for 2006—in recognition of his work in the development of space habitats. With the successful Russian launch of Bigelow Aerospace’s Genesis 1, Bob is leading the way for private sector individuals willing to advance space exploration with minimum reliance on government programmes. Bob firmly believes in bringing space closer to people’s lives, and Genesis 1 represents the first step in expandable habitats suited for industrial, commercial and recreational purposes.

SPECTRUM: You have lived to see one of your key ideas—geosynchronous satellites—come to fruition. Another idea of yours—the Space Elevator—is coming closer to reality. Do you have any further thoughts on the Space Elevator?

CLARKE:

...What makes the Space Elevator such an attractive idea is its cost-effectiveness. A ticket to orbit now costs tens of millions of dollars (as the millionaire space tourists have paid). But the actual energy required, if you purchased it from your friendly local utility, would only add about hundred dollars to your electricity bill. And a round-trip would cost only about one tenth of that, as most of the energy could be recovered on the way back!

Once it is built, the Space Elevator could be used to lift payloads, passengers, pre-fabricated components of spacecraft, as well as rocket fuel up to Earth orbit. In this way, more than 90 per cent of the energy needed for the exploration of the Solar System could be provided by Earth-based energy sources. When the Space Elevator becomes a reality in the coming decades, the most expensive components of orbital travel will be in-flight movies and catering.

I believe him.

I consider myself blessed that I will (God willing) live to see much more of this accomplished than will Clarke. But there's no doubt that he will have dreamed and imagined far more than my eyes will behold.

Larry Craig Resignation Watch Back On

(Update: Expulsion Watch!)

The Politico reports that a Minnesota judge has denied the request of Senator Larry Craig to withdraw his infamous guilty plea:

"Because the defendent's guilty plea was accurate, voluntary and intelligent, and because the conviction is supported by the evidence, the defendent's conviction for disorderly conduct occuring on June 11, 2007 in the men's public restroom at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in Bloomington, Hennpin County, Minnesota, is valid," Judge Charles A. Porter wrote in a 27-page opinion released at 1:40 p.m.

Senator Craig intended to resign September 30, but deferred while his attempt to overturn the plea was pending. Does this mean his resignation is forthcoming?

It's my understanding that Craig is entitled to appeal the decision, but he's given no indication as to whether he would. Hopefully this can be merciful and quick.

Update: More at CNN.

Update II: Larry Craig is not resigning:

Idaho Sen. Larry Craig defiantly vowed to serve out his term in office on Thursday despite losing a court attempt to rescind his guilty plea in a men's room sex sting.

"I have seen that it is possible for me to work here effectively," Craig said in a written statement certain to disappoint fellow Republicans who have long urged him to step down.

This is sure to bring a push for explusion.

Ogonowski for Congress

Michael Barone would not be surprised if Jim Ogonowski upsets Niki Tsongas in the special election to succeed Marty Meehan:

If this election had been held in November 2006, Tsongas would have won by a solid margin. And she may still do that October 16. The SurveyUSA poll result would translate to a 53-to-42 percent Tsongas victory. A closer result would signal that the political environment has changed since November 2006, that the poor job ratings of the Democratic Congress have become more important to voters in House elections than the poor job ratings of the soon-to-depart George W. Bush.

I have written that we are in a period of open-field politics, a period like that of 1990-95, when incumbency became a liability more than an asset, when people crossed party lines back and forth and supported independent candidacies, when old rules of thumb no longer applied. Much of Washington would be stunned if a Republican won a House seat in Massachusetts. If that should happen, that's not necessarily a forecast of 2008: Voters in special elections know that they're voting for just one member and that their vote won't change which party controls the House. But it would signal that we're in a period of turbulence, as we were in 1990 and 1992, when incumbents of both parties saw their percentages fall. And it would suggest that the issues of taxes and immigration, which didn't work for Republicans in 2004 and 2006, might work for them in 2008.

HuffPo Hates the Troops

Read it at the Standard.

2008 Convention Logos

Jim Geraghty evaluates the GOP and Democratic logos for their 2008 conventions. Go read the whole thing; I want to make just one observation.

Look at the Democratic logo and tell me what jumps out at you
















I think they did a great job on the zero in '08.' It was the first thing that drew my eye -- a nice subliminal message.

Who mocked up the graphics for them -- Karl Rove?

Update: More on the GOP logo here.

Congratulations to John Murtha!

The most powerful porker in Congress!


Check the report from CNBC.

Yesterday in a conversation with several Members of Congress, I criticized House Republicans for failing to do more to reduce or eliminate the number of earmarks in legislation, and the total value of such earmarks. That criticism is valid, I think. But while I want Congress to 'run' when it comes to disclosing and debating earmarks, the Democrats are making it nearly impossible to walk.

And frankly, Democrats have in nine months in the majority already racked up an impressive number of stories about abuses of power -- from earmarks, to fundraising, to perks... It seems that it won't be difficult next year to use noteworthy Democrats like Speaker Pelosi and John Murtha to drive up turnout. Their names are quickly becoming as infamous on the Right as Newt and DeLay were on the Left. That ought to scare Democrats.

A little more for your viewing pleasure:

Guns Prevent Crime

Gotta love a story with a happy ending like this one:

Always carrying a gun because this is the third time in three months, Rob's home has been broken into. One window is still boarded up from the last time it happened.

“Why me? I don't know,” said Rob. “There are no street lights out here; it's pretty desolate.”

And it was pretty quiet early this morning until around 3:15 a.m. when a burglar broke his living room window and climbed in. Little did he know Rob heard the noise and was inside waiting.

“So I step out from behind the wall and say ‘you're a dead man.’ He screams as loud as he can, drives through the window and takes off running,” said Rob.

He ran so fast he left his car in the driveway, the engine still running.

The would-be thief was arrested a little while later.

Fred Thompson: A Gaffe, or a Joke?

MSNBC's First Read captures what looks like a slip by Senator Thompson:

“The president called me up and asked me to help shepherd judge John Roberts’ nomination through the Senate confirmation process. I was honored that I got that call. I was honored that he thought I had enough friends on the Democratic side that they wouldn't run me out of town!

“We fought hard against each other, but I always thought that we had mutual respect. And that's what it takes.
“Even though the other party controlled the Judiciary committee, we got some votes there. For a good, sound, what I would call conservative justice.”

Obviously, the GOP controlled the Senate in 2005. They had a 10-8 majority on the Judiciary Committee. The Committee Chair was Arlen Specter, who infuriated conservatives with his handling of the committee. Many felt that Specter let Pat Leahy (the ranking Democrat) and other Democrats run roughshod over the Republican majority.

If you don't recall this, check out National Review's the Corner for the period in question. Look at this post from John Miller in November, 04:

Republicans increased their control of the Senate this week, but if they make Arlen Specter chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, they may effectively lose control of the judicial nominating process. It's amazing how President Bush pulled this guy over the finish line in April, when he was nearly defeated in a primary, and now Specter is issuing threats to the White House on judges. Specter is probably entering his final term now, which means that he's completely unaccountable to anybody. Watch out.

Or from Mark Levin in October 2005:

Specter on 10/11/05 (AP): "Conservatives are giving President Bush an unfair 'pummeling' over his selection of Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court, Senate Judiciary Chairman Arlen Specter said Tuesday. ... The nomination has drawn criticism from conservatives who say Miers lacks proven conservative credentials and a judicial background. They want more information on whether she would vote to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion. 'I'm really sorry that on doctrinal grounds they don't understand that she cannot tip her hand on Roe. I really think ... they're failing to understand a very basic constitutional principle of judicial independence,' Specter, R-Pa., said in an interview with reporters and editors from The Associated Press."

And this from Kathryn Lopez -- January, 2005:

Arlen Specter makes the wife of a former Pa. Democratic congressional candidate general counsel for the Judiciary Committee.

I look to National Review because they were the clearest voice in 2005 about how conservatives viewed Specter's leadership of the Committee. If you ask the team at the Corner, they will tell you that Fred Thompson is absolutely right. It might have been a mistake on Thompson's part, but he could be forgiven for not remembering that the Republicans were nominally in control.

The Complex Situation In Nigeria... or Niger

'I don't agree with what I just said'


In The Know: Situation In Nigeria Seems Pretty Complex