Light Christmas Blogging

Blogging will be pretty light for the next few days, for obvious reasons. I'll be spending a happy Christmas with loved ones, including my sister-in-law, who is due with her first child in a few weeks.

In anticipation of Christmas, a few timely old-school reminders that the most important things in life really are things that you cannot touch.

First, O Henry's classic "Gift of the Magi."

And next, a favorite of mine - Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus:

"DEAR EDITOR: I am 8 years old.
"Some of my little friends say there is no Santa Claus.
"Papa says, 'If you see it in THE SUN it's so.'
"Please tell me the truth; is there a Santa Claus?

"VIRGINIA O'HANLON.
"115 WEST NINETY-FIFTH STREET."

VIRGINIA, your little friends are wrong. They have been affected by the skepticism of a skeptical age. They do not believe except [what] they see. They think that nothing can be which is not comprehensible by their little minds. All minds, Virginia, whether they be men's or children's, are little. In this great universe of ours man is a mere insect, an ant, in his intellect, as compared with the boundless world about him, as measured by the intelligence capable of grasping the whole of truth and knowledge.

Yes, VIRGINIA, there is a Santa Claus. He exists certainly as love and generosity and devotion exist, and you know that they abound and give to your life its highest beauty and joy. Alas! How dreary would be the world if there were no Santa Claus! It would be as dreary as if there were no VIRGINIAS. There would be no childlike faith then, no poetry, no romance to make tolerable this existence. We should have no enjoyment, except in sense and sight. The eternal light which childhood fills the world would be extinguished.

Not believe in Santa Claus! You might as well not believe in fairies! You might get your papa to hire men to watch in all the chimneys on Christmas Eve to catch Santa Claus, but even if they did not see Santa Claus coming down, what would that prove? Nobody sees Santa Claus, but that is no sign that there is no Santa Claus. The most real things in the world are those that neither children nor men can see. Did you ever see fairies dancing on the lawn? Of course not, but that's no proof that they are not there. Nobody can conceive or imagine all the wonders there are unseen and unseeable in the world.

You tear apart the baby's rattle and see what makes the noise inside, but there is a veil covering the unseen world which not the strongest man, nor even the united strength of all the strongest man that ever lived, could tear apart. Only faith, fancy, poetry, love, romance can push aside that curtain and view and picture the supernal beauty and glory beyond. Is it all real? Ah, VIRGINIA, in all this world there is nothing else real and abiding. No Santa Claus! Thank GOD! He lives, and he lives forever. A thousand years from now, nay, ten times ten thousand years from now, he will continue to make glad the heart of childhood.

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Obama Already In; Conservatives for Giuliani

Novak is a must-read today, both for the topics mentioned above and for an account of a Howard Dean misstep that may handicap Hillary's Presidential run. Conspiracists will ask: was it an accident, or was it sabotage!?

OBAMA RUNS

Contrary to reports that Barack Obama is still trying to make up his mind whether to seek the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, sources close to the first-term senator say he is unequivocally committed to making the race.

The word has spread through political circles that Obama's wife, Michelle, is resisting the campaign out of fear for her husband's physical safety as an African-American candidate for president. But an Obama insider dismissed that as a problem. "We took care of that last summer," he told this column.

A footnote: Obama advisers were surprised how much the prospect of his campaign has shaken front-running Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. For the first time, she has asserted that she would have voted against going to war in Iraq if she knew then what she knows now...

RUDY'S AGENT

California conservative Republican Bill Simon has begun building a network of support in the Golden State for the prospective presidential campaign of his old boss, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Simon, son of the late Secretary of the Treasury William Simon, was Republican nominee for governor of California in 2002. He was a prosecutor working for Giuliani, then U.S. attorney in New York City, in 1986-88.

Simon has been arranging get-acquainted meetings for Giuliani with prominent California conservatives to show them he is not all that liberal and really is a Republican.

Read the whole thing.

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Dems Wrong on Trade

Check out the NAM blog.

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Left-Right Agreement: Deficit No Big Deal

Greg Mankiw covers it.

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TSA Missing 3,719 Badges & Uniforms

Allah covers a story I find deeply troubling - particularly since I plan to be flying tomorrow.

If Congressional Democrats plan more aggressive oversight of the administration, I hope that stuff like this is near the top of the list.

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An Irreverent Christmas

If you like Scrubs, then check out this butchering of the Charlie Brown Christmas special. It's very funny.



(Taste and content warnings!).

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The Power of the Internet

Not many people pay attention the NHL (National Hockey League), or its All Star Game. However, it's garnering more attention this year because an internet campaign is about to land a virtual nobody in the starting lineup:

Much like Sylvester Stallone has done with Rocky, Rory Fitzpatrick campaigners have taken a charming story and launched it into the realm of the ridiculous -- and the NHL couldn't be happier.

The league is embracing the 'Vote for Rory' efforts which now seem poised to elect to the all-star game a bottom-roster Canucks defenceman who has as many points as the fans voting for him (zero).

"I hope that from a human standpoint, for once, we can all just have a moment of fun with something without sentencing ourselves to paralysis by analysis," said NHL spokesman Frank Brown. "I have a pretty strong feeling that everyone who has played this year at an all-star calibre will end up on the ice in Dallas.

Fitzpatrick is an unlikely champion, which is what makes this great. He has played for 5 teams in a 10 year career, and he's currently 12th on his team in playing time.

It started on a chat board, expanded to a website (voteforrory.com), and now includes 'ads' for Fitzpatrick's bid on Youtube. Here are two very funny political style attack ads:





With Major League Baseball also allowing fan voting for the All Star Game (I don't know about the other major sports), look for copycat efforts.

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Picture of the Day

Someday I need to see the Northern Lights in person...

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Weird Story of the Day

Murder suspect apparently survives being shot in forehead, and fights court order to have the slug removed.

Hat Tip: Volokh

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So Much for Earmark Reform...

And so the hope that the incoming Democratic majority would be 'better' than the Republican majority on earmark reform goes up in smoke. The New York Times reports that the House Democratic Leadership is helping the vulnerable incoming Freshman Democratic class with key committee assigments:

The 110th Congress has not even been sworn into office. But in a measure of the determination not to surrender the majority in two years, Representative Nancy Pelosi, the presumptive speaker, has instructed aides to begin acting immediately to help Democrats who won by small margins in districts where President Bush did well in 2004 or who coasted in because their opponents were mired by controversy. Those new members are methodically being given coveted spots on high-profile committees, in particular the Financial Services Committee, a magnet for campaign contributions, and the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a platform from which to send money for projects back home.

Apart from generally putting the lie to Democratic promises to change the culture in Washington, it demonstrates that Democrats are perfectly happy to accept earmarks for political gain. And if vulnerable Freshmen are going to be the beneficiaries of earmarks, you can bet they won't be the only ones. Veteran Democrats will insist on equal treatment.

And for those not familiar with Congressional rules, transportation earmarks are generally not subject to the appropriations process. That is, while almost all Congressional authorizations for spending must subsequently be approved in an appropriations bill, most transportation spending is done in the form of direct obligation, meaning that it only needs to be in the transportation bill for the money to be spent. As a result, reform of earmarks in appropriations bills has no effect on transportation earmarks.

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Why Rudy Can Win

American Spectator notes a wealth of speculation recently that just maybe, Giuliani can win the Republican nomination with at least some support from social conservatives.

Derbyshire says that everyone hates Giuliani for something; I suppose there's some truth to that. Since I am a practicing Catholic, I will state for my part that while Derbyshire says that Catholics hate Giuliani because of his divorces, it's no deal-breaker with me. And of the Catholics I know, no one regards it is a serious obstacle. In fact, I know many Catholics - primarily from New York - who accept his personal failings, but marvel at the job he did as Mayor. His leadership counts for a lot.

Plus, no one really loves any of the leading contenders. And if your choices boil down to Rudy Giuliani, the volatile John McCain, and the uncertain Mitt Romney, Giuliani seems a pretty good option.

Read in particular Michael Barone, who's probably forgotten more about right-center voters than I will ever know. He finds that Giuliani scores very wellamong conservatives, specifically because of 9/11. Giuilani may wither, as opponents air commercials about his personal history and his views on social issues, but I bet it won't be that easy.

Further and importantly, if the first rule of politics today is to get all the negative stuff out in the open first - so it's 'neutralized' as an issue - then Giuliani is well-served by the attention he's getting in the blogoshpere. His views on abortion, gun control, and gay rights are all getting aired now, and the audience in the blogosphere probably approximates the core primary voters. Come January 2007, when the commercials are aired, many may respond by saying 'yes, we know all that.' If so, Giuliani may be the front-runner.

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More Details on Sandy Burglar

What could motivate someone to risk a security clearance, a reputation, and jail time? Mr. Berger must have thought there was something extremely damaging in the documents he sought to hide (or did hide) from the 9/11 Commission.

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In Fact, They Don't Know It's Christmas

Nearly fifteen years after the fiasco of the U.S. withdrawal in the aftermath of the Battle of Bakara Market, events in Somalia give us a low-budget model of what the world could expect from a similar no-fault withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. Ethiopia and Eritrea (as well as other, Islamic, states) back opposing factions which have for the last 3 days been shelling each other around the town of Baidoa in the country's interior. Ethiopia's support of the putative national unity government has escalated over the past year to officially-denied division-level military engagement in support of their proxies, and the situation may now have passed the point of no return, as the Islamists declare a state of war.

The prospects of parallel developments in Iraq, should the Blame-America-First Left succeed in a near-term withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, cannot be ignored. Iran has already made its support of al-Sadr's Mahdi Army an open secret, and the prospect of direct Iranian military backing of his forces in the event of U.S. withdrawal can be regarded as a practical certainty. The recently expressed Saudi intent to prevent further erosion of Sunni influence in the country could be expected swiftly to assume military form as well.

The one certainty is that the key distinction between Somalia and Iraq is the poverty of Somalia compared to Iraq's oil wealth: the slow-haemorrhaging, low-level, lone-technical-machine-gunning-through-a-village carnage of Somalia's last decade is certainly a pale shadow of the swift and industrial-strength destruction two proxy armies backed by Saudi Arabia and Iran could wreak in Iraq.

In the Holiday Mood

I offer one of my Christmastime guilty pleasures:



It's worth a look just to see the '80's hair, and to see how much Sting looked like Francis from Malcolm in the Middle.

And obviously, Band Aid begat USA for Africa:



Watch it just to see if you can identify everyone in it.

And because I know the audience here includes masochists, a link to Allah's take on the Star Wars Christmas special.

But you know what, if it's Christmas, I always think about Groundhog Day:



Umm... I have no reason why.

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Defending Bush on Trade

I have commented in the past that the Bush administration doesn't seem all that dedicated to free trade. The Economist offers a strong and surprising defense of the President, and a gloomy look at the incoming Democrats.

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Ethnic Relations in UK - Redux

Drudge features an eye-catching headline:

MOHAMMED OVERTAKES GEORGE IN LIST OF UK'S MOST POPULAR NAMES...

This reminds us of how the western world is changing. But if you look at the data, it appears that it does not represent a dramatic change from the last few years.

While 'Mohammed' is more popular than 'George' or 'Joseph,' it is less popular than 21 other names, including 'Alfie' and 'Callum.' Further, it comes in at 22nd place - a fall of 2 spots from 2004 (although 'Muhammad' climbed from 54 to 44 in that time). So while the UK has clearly changed, it may not have changed so much in the last few years.

What's shocking is the paucity of the numbers - at least for us Americans. The most popular boy's name in the UK is 'Jack,' which is the given name for just 6,928 British children in 2006 (so far). Mohammed and Muhammad by contrast, combined for a total of 4,255 children.

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Goode Needs to Revise and Extend

Republican Congressman Virgil Goode (R-VA) needs to clear up his views on Muslims in America. It's reported that he sent the following letter to a constituent:

Thank you for your recent communication. When I raise my hand to take the oath on Swearing In Day, I will have the Bible in my other hand. I do not subscribe to using the Koran in any way. The Muslim Representative from Minnesota was elected by the voters of that district and if American citizens don’t wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration there will likely be many more Muslims elected to office and demanding the use of the Koran. We need to stop illegal immigration totally and reduce legal immigration and end the diversity visas policy pushed hard by President Clinton and allowing many persons from the Middle East to come to this country. I fear that in the next century we will have many more Muslims in the United States if we do not adopt the strict immigration policies that I believe are necessary to preserve the values and beliefs traditional to the United States of America and to prevent our resources from being swamped.

The Ten Commandments and “In God We Trust” are on the wall in my office. A Muslim student came by the office and asked why I did not have anything on my wall about the Koran. My response was clear, “As long as I have the honor of representing the citizens of the 5th District of Virginia in the United States House of Representatives, The Koran is not going to be on the wall of my office.”

Thank you again for your email and thoughts.

Predictably, CAIR has picked up on this faster than anyone. They can probably be counted on to go overboard.

Nevertheless, I don't think it ought to be the explicit policy of this country to prevent an increase in the Muslim population. I hope that Goode doesn't either, and states it.

Hat Tip: TPMMuckraker.

Update: In the comment section, Philo questions whether Mr. Goode might merely be a victim of sloppy staff work. I thought that might be the case, but this would seem to answer that question: Lawmaker won't apologize for 'Islamophobic' letter.

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Neophytes Handed Congress to Democrats

Charlie Cook posts a note from an interesting political conference - one where representatives of the House Democratic and Republican Campaign Committees talked about why the election turned out the way it did. Apparently there was agreement that for this year at least, conventional wisdom was wrong; first-time candidates were an asset to the Democrats:

History tells us that the best congressional challengers have already won elective office. Experienced candidates are more likely than the uninitiated to understand the fundamentals of a strong campaign, especially organization, strategy, and fundraising. Experienced candidates tend to have a better grasp of the issues, and to know how to effectively articulate their message and stay on it. This doesn't mean that first-time candidates can't do these things and can't win, just that experienced candidates usually do them better.

In 2006, Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and his team moved heaven and earth to get experienced candidates to run. But many of the blue-chippers, the experienced would-be candidates, were not convinced that it would be a good Democratic year. As a result, Democrats ended up with many more first-time congressional candidates -- or people who had run before but had never won, or people who had never won a tough race -- than they would have liked. To be sure, some first-timers, such as Heath Shuler in North Carolina and Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania, turned out to be surprisingly good candidates.

At the conference, Jonathan Poe, the National Republican Congressional Committee's deputy political director, argued that the Democrats' large number of novices was precisely the problem for the GOP in many races. Unlike experienced candidates, the first-timers had scant voting records or other experiences that their opponents could use as fodder for negative ads. Republican incumbents and the NRCC thus had to resort to far less effective and convincing attacks. In many cases, the attacks simply didn't work. Either by design or by luck, the Democrats' presumed liability of lacking experienced candidates turned into an asset this year. Poe's counterpart on the panel, DCCC Executive Director Karin Johanson, wore a smile that couldn't be missed.

A good point, but I'm not sure how useful it is. The preference for an experienced candidate is likely to hold in all but big anti-incumbent elections. In rare cases like 2008, when voters are so heavily predisposed to support a challenger, it might be better to have no record to attack. But it's hard to predict during which elections those will be one year out - when much of the 'recruiting' is done.

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Labor Disrupts Democratic Convention Plan

The DNC had hoped to announce before January 1, the location for the 2008 Democratic Convention. The RNC has already announced Minneapolis-St. Paul for the location of the Republican Convention, and a convention in Denver would have the DNC also holding its get-together in a swing region that leans to the other party.

However, the DNC can't get a commitment from the local stagehands union to not call a strike that affects the convo:

Denver's bid to host the 2008 Democratic National Convention hit a serious snag Monday after a union leader refused to sign a no-strike pledge, with a decision due anytime.

City and union officials confirmed Monday that Jim Taylor, head of the local stagehands union, is refusing to sign a mandatory agreement with national Democrats pledging not to strike if the convention comes to Denver.

Debbie Willhite, executive director of the host committee, said not having full union support is "probably a deal breaker" for the DNC.

But Denver's director of theaters and arenas, Jack Finlaw, said he was "optimistic" that Taylor and the stagehands would sign on.

"There is still time," Finlaw said.

The alternative site is New York. And while I am a New Yorker and love the City, it's not likely to offer the Democrats any political gain. After all, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are all 'safe' Democratic states - so the (arguable) political benefit of holding the event in that region is small. I suppose the only way that region is winnable is if Rudy Giuliani is on the GOP ticket - in which case holding a convention in New York is unlikely to help much.

On the other hand, the Democrats are two-for-three in recent Presidential elections where they met in New York City. Bill Clinton was nominated at the 1992 convention in New York, and the Democrats nominated Jimmy Carter there in 1976 and 1980 - with mixed results.

Hat Tip: CQ Political Wire

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Ari Fleischer for Congress

Human Events reports that New York politicos are talking about the possibility of Ari Fleischer running for Congress in 2008:

Will Ari Run?

The Westchester-county-based 24th District could be a focus of national attention if one Republican in particular makes the race: Ari Fleischer, one-time press secretary to George W. Bush, left the White House in 2003 and returned to his home county to do communications consulting (at one point, he advised major league baseball teams on public relations matters), write his memoir of the Bush White House and take on speaking engagements and TV commentary.

Friends of Fleischer note that the Westchester native has done just about everything congressional—managed campaigns, worked as a press secretary in both houses of Congress and served as a field operative for the National Republican Congressional Committee—except run for Congress himself. Kelly’s defeat at the hands of Hall now opens up that opportunity for him.

Fleischer isn’t saying anything about any political plans, but fellow New Yorkers who know him well bet that he will make the House race in ’08. As Larry Casey, onetime top aide to former New York Republican Rep. George Wortley and a canny political operative, told me: “Ari is the natural and best candidate for Congress from Westchester and, if he chooses to run, the obvious Republican candidate.”

Would this be unprecendented? I can't think of any former White House Press Secretaries who went on to run for Congress.

Fleischer is comfortable in front of the cameras and his name and connections guarantee that he would have all the money he needed to run. At the same time, the district only has the slightest Republican edge ('+1 Republican,' according to Charlie Cook). If Bush is as unpopular in November 2008 as he is today, Fleischer could have a hard time shaking the association of him with an unpopular President.

Further, if Hillary or Giuliani lead the ticket (or both do), it could have a significant effect on coattails in New York State.

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