Why Rudy Can Win

American Spectator notes a wealth of speculation recently that just maybe, Giuliani can win the Republican nomination with at least some support from social conservatives.

Derbyshire says that everyone hates Giuliani for something; I suppose there's some truth to that. Since I am a practicing Catholic, I will state for my part that while Derbyshire says that Catholics hate Giuliani because of his divorces, it's no deal-breaker with me. And of the Catholics I know, no one regards it is a serious obstacle. In fact, I know many Catholics - primarily from New York - who accept his personal failings, but marvel at the job he did as Mayor. His leadership counts for a lot.

Plus, no one really loves any of the leading contenders. And if your choices boil down to Rudy Giuliani, the volatile John McCain, and the uncertain Mitt Romney, Giuliani seems a pretty good option.

Read in particular Michael Barone, who's probably forgotten more about right-center voters than I will ever know. He finds that Giuliani scores very wellamong conservatives, specifically because of 9/11. Giuilani may wither, as opponents air commercials about his personal history and his views on social issues, but I bet it won't be that easy.

Further and importantly, if the first rule of politics today is to get all the negative stuff out in the open first - so it's 'neutralized' as an issue - then Giuliani is well-served by the attention he's getting in the blogoshpere. His views on abortion, gun control, and gay rights are all getting aired now, and the audience in the blogosphere probably approximates the core primary voters. Come January 2007, when the commercials are aired, many may respond by saying 'yes, we know all that.' If so, Giuliani may be the front-runner.

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