Many Good Targets for House GOP in '08

Congressional Quarterly notes that there are now 68 Congressional Districts that 'split their votes' in the 2004 Presidential race and the 2006 House races. (That is, who backed Kerry for President but elected a Republican to the House, or who backed Bush and a Democrat). Of those 68 seats, 60 are districts that backed Bush but are now represented by a Democrat in the House. This includes 21 seats that flipped from Republican to Democrat this year, meaning the House Member is a Freshman.

This represents a huge opportunity for the House GOP in 2006. The GOP will only need to gain 16 seats or so to retake the House, and that list of 21 new Members in 'GOP seats' could wind up representing all the targets they need to regain the majority. Remember too, that several of those are basically accidental Representatives, with poor re-election prospects in 2008 - Members like Nick Lampson (DeLay seat), Nancy Boyda (Jim Ryun), Zack Space (Bob Ney), and Tim Mahoney (Mark Foley).

On the flip side, if Democrats run a strong Presidential race, the 8 seats that backed Kerry but are now represented by Republicans will be heavily targeted.

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