Sunday, November 05, 2006

Something's Happening Here (II)

And what it is, definitely looks like a GOP surge. Check out RCP.

I'll play the skeptic again: I find it hard to believe that the race would change this dramatically, this late. And what would explain it? The GOP vote 'coming home?' John 'Gift Horse Face' Kerry?

Still, if it's showing in two major polls, it's likely not a mirage. Hopefully the surge is as big as it appears...

Pollster.Com's Charles Franklin pinpoints the Democratic peak as 10 days ago. Heh.

He still projects a Democratic House, but says that now the 'big wave gains' - in the 30s and 40s - seem out of reach. Now he pegs it as in the 20s. Note too, that Franklin wrote this before the Washington Post and Pew Research generic polls were released.

Update: Jim Geraghty notes that Gallup has reported a narrowing of the Dem advantage as well. It went from 13 to 7 points in the last two weeks. Three national polls seems to confirm the surge. Now will it peter our before Tuesday, or keep narrowing?

Update II: Newsweek is not buying the GOP Kool Aid - if that is in fact, what it is.

Update III: If there is a surge, I have a thought as to where it might be coming from - here.

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