Monday, November 06, 2006

Why the Surge?

I suspect that a major reason for the apparent GOP 'surge' is that there are lots of disgruntled GOP voters who were unwilling to admit to themselves that they could not vote for the Democrats. They were dissatisfied with spending, immigration, ethics, and other issues, so they could not admit that at the end of the day, they were still going to vote Republican. But as the election approached and the coming vote became more 'real,' they acknowledged that there was no way they could vote for the Democrats - who they know will not make any of these things better.

And note that as Mickey points out, the surge started before Kerry spouted his insulting comments. According to Charles Franklin, the Democrats peaked right about Thursday, October 26. Hhmmm... did anything happen on or about October 26? Oh wait! I know!

I wonder if that decision, which attracted a lot of attention and then went 'under the radar,' was really taken to heart by the social conservative community. Perhaps that was the trigger that led the GOP base to realize the importance of a Republican victory. Perhaps those who were thinking about staying home or voting Democratic, to send a message about their displeasure over a range of issues, decided both to come to the polls and to vote on the issues that have been most important to them.

Just a thought.

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