Monday, November 06, 2006

The Pros Are Against Us...

If you make the rounds of predictions by the major election analysts and predictors, it's going to be a great day for the Democrats tomorrow. Charlie Cook's analysis offers little in the way of a specific prediction:

With just over 72 hours to go before the polls close, it's very hard to imagine how the House majority does not turn over, it's a question of how big this thing will be. As the magnitude of the House wave began growing a month or so ago, and the prospect of a 20 or more seat gain became increasingly probable, I decided that no matter how big it got, I was not going to say or write a number bigger than 35. After a certain point, you aren't really counting or even estimating, you're pulling numbers out of the air. I didn't and don't see any point in that. Let's just say it's 20-35, but that the possibility of this getting bigger, is very real. I'm just not going to throw any higher numbers out...

The bottom line is that it is more possible today than a couple weeks ago that Republicans could hold their losses to just four, or it could end up being the six that seemed more likely to many then. Seven seat gain seems pretty much out, but then again three isn't very likely either. Republicans would need a lot of breaks to keep losses to four, a 51-49 majority, but it is quite plausible. Some may be very close, but all but Missouri and Montana are east of the Mississippi River, which doesn't necesarily mean an early evening, but that the story lines of the evening will develop early.

It's not quite like nailing jello to the wall, but it's not far off.

Larry Sabato says the Democrats will net six Senate seats, and take 29 seats in the House.

Stu Rothenberg predicts Democratic gains of 34-40 in the House and 5-7 in the Senate.

The Washington Post yesterday reported the forecasts of the last 13 winners of the 'Crystal Ball' competition that they run prior to each election. Only Mary Matalin predicted that the Republicans would keep the House.

The top election prognosticators in Washington are giving the GOP no shot to retain the House, and put the Senate at more or less even money. Anything less than a complete Republican meltdown tomorrow will qualify as a major shock to the DC punditocracy.

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