The Hotline received an E-mail from 'Republican Pollster Steve Lombardo,' who says that the apparent GOP surge is probably too late to help House Republicans keep their majority.
I've reproduced the note below:
A Republican's Take
Republican pollster Steve Lombardo e-mails the Hotline his final overview.
The Republican "surge," he writes, may have come too late.
"Tomorrow’s election will take place in what may be the greatest time of voter discontent in the last 30 years. Six in ten voters believe the country is on the “wrong track”. They are angry and they know who is in charge. When you look at a Gallup poll question on satisfaction nearly two thirds of voters say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. This is very close to 1994 levels and just a bit better than 1982."
On the Congressional Generic Ballot (CGB):
"Republicans have not closed the GCB gap far enough. We believe that the narrowing of the GCB is in part a natural occurrence (Republicans and some swing voters coming home) and also some improvement in the environment for the GOP, but it remains a huge hurdle for the Party. In 1994, eve of the election polls showed Republicans with anywhere from a 4 to 7 point GCB lead. The two most recent polls in this election show Democrats with a similar 4-7 point lead."
Also:
"Democrats do better in polls than they do on Election Day. Simply put, Democrats under-perform because a large segment of their core vote is made up of Independents and young people -- both of whom are less likely to actually vote on election day."
This is the lay of the land with 24 hours to go.
An Abundance of Good News for Democrats:
· Tomorrow’s election will take place in what may be the greatest time of voter discontent in the last 30 years. Six in ten voters believe the country is on the “wrong track”. They are angry and they know who is in charge. When you look at a Gallup poll question on satisfaction nearly two thirds of voters say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. This is very close to 1994 levels and just a bit better than 1982.
· This election has become a referendum on the President and the war in Iraq. The election is undoubtedly nationalized.
· The war in Iraq is far and away the most important issue in this election. A majority of voters (53% in the latest Washington Post poll) say that the war was “not worth it”. More than 6 in 10 voters disapprove of the war and the President’s performance in the war. Iraq is the driving factor in this election. It literally will propel voters to the election booth on Tuesday to vote against the President and his party.
· National security has greatly diminished as a major issue. Yes, some voters cite it as an important concern but it is not nearly as strong as the Republicans need it to be. In the same Washington Post poll, only 11% of voters cite national security as the most important issue in their vote for Congress this year. The diminution of the national security issue in this election has really hurt Republicans. Democrats de-coupled Iraq from national security and it will benefit them tomorrow.
· The economic numbers are better (stock market doing well, unemployment showing improvement and gas prices are down substantially) but the GOP is getting little credit and in the parts of the country where it is bad (Ohio, Michigan) it will hurt the GOP.
· According to our analysis of all public polls, the President’s approval rating is at 39% -- well below the level needed to make him a neutral factor in this mid-term election. As we have said in the past, the disapproval of the President and his Iraq policy represent a 2-4 point drag on every Republican candidate for Congress.
· History is on the side of the Democrats. This is the 6th year election of a two-term President and it is almost always bad for the party of President. Throughout the 1900’s the party of the President in his second term lost dozens of seats. In fact, in Reagan's second mid-term election (1986) Republicans managed to lose six House seats as well as the Senate, even though his approval rating stood at 63%.
· Finally, Democrats have led in the generic congressional ballot by significant margins -- some polls showing a 10-15 point lead for the last 6 months (though there is some tightening -- see below).
A Little Good News for Republicans
· A new poll by the Pew Research Center released Sunday shows that the Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot among likely voters has shrunk to 4 points (47% to 43%). While we knew the GCB gap would close, this is a substantial change from late October when Democrats held an 11-point lead among likely voters in the same poll.
· More importantly, the same poll shows that Republican engagement in the election has risen dramatically in the last 30 days.
· John Kerry is back. In the Pew poll, 84% of voters said they heard a lot or a little about Kerry’s remarks -- although a majority said it would be a non-factor in their vote.
We have some hypotheses that we think will be determinants in the election tomorrow:
1. Republicans have not closed the GCB gap far enough. We believe that the narrowing of the GCB is in part a natural occurrence (Republicans and some swing voters coming home) and also some improvement in the environment for the GOP, but it remains a huge hurdle for the Party. In 1994, eve of the election polls showed Republicans with anywhere from a 4 to 7 point GCB lead. The two most recent polls in this election show Democrats with a similar 4-7 point lead.
2. Democrats do better in polls than they do on Election Day. Simply put, Democrats under-perform because a large segment of their core vote is made up of Independents and young people -- both of whom are less likely to actually vote on election day.
3. The above means that Democrats will win on Tuesday but not by the margins that many people think.
Projections:
What most prognosticators do not want to tell you is that most of this is all about guessing. The polls are too close to tell us with any degree of certainty who is going to win. The national data gives us some insight on the mood and how it might push the vote in one direction or another. Ultimately we do not know who will show up to vote on election day and that will drive who wins and who loses.
We inventoried all of the pundit predictions we could get our hands and averaged those. The average Dem gain based on an analysis of 31 pundits was a 25.2 seat gain. When the pundit provided a spread (e.g. 20-30, we took the mid-point -- i.e., 25).
We are inclined to go a bit lower and are projecting that the Democrats take the House with a net gain of 21 seats…making the new makeup 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans).
We are projecting that the Republicans hold the Senate and actually perform better than expected.
Here is how we see the individual races:
Allen will beat Webb in Virginia. The data over the last 7 days has showed Allen’s vote start to solidify. He did everything possible to give this one away but it may not be enough. VA is a Republican hold.
Burns will come from behind and win in a very close race in Montana. MT is a GOP hold.
Corker wiill beat Ford in Tennessee. This has been trending the Republican’s way since early last week. TN is a GOP hold.
Democrats will hold Maryland and New Jersey.
Democrats will pick up Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Ohio.
In the closest election in the country…and one in which making a projection is really down to a hunch….we now believe that McCaskill will narrowly defeat Jim Talent. The result: Democrats pick up 4 and fall two short of winning the Senate. The new Senate makeup will be 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats.
I don't know anything about Steve Lombardo beyond what I get in a google search. What he says however, certainly seems reasonable. I just hope it's wrong.
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