Sunday, November 05, 2006

Something's Happening Here

What it is ain't exactly clear...

Be aware that there are a number of polls showing things improving for the GOP here in the final days. I'm not sure what to make of them, but you should be aware of it.

For example, Jim Geraghty looks at the narrowing of the Dem advantage in the Washington Post poll. He also sees signs of progress in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Further, some key Republicans have seen their numbers improve in the last few days, including Charlie Bass and Jeb Bradley in NH, and Mike DeWine in the latest Ohio Senate poll. (Check out RCP's poll page for the data).

Obviously, Conrad Burns has closed dramatically in the last few weeks, and is tied in the latest poll. Given that this is something that's been going on for a while, I suspect it is real, and I think at this point, you have to favor him for re-election given the Republican tilt of the state.

Keep in mind that notwithstanding these improvements, the numbers are still pretty bad overall. Also, they may just be a sign of Republican voters coming home. There is probably a fair-sized segment that was never going to vote Democratic, but was always too disgruntled to admit that they would eventually vote GOP. Now that the election is here, they are swallowing their anger and frustration, and indicating that they're going to 'suck it up' and vote for the Republicans. If just 3 or 4 percent of likely voters fit that description, then the movement in the polls could reflect that.

Update: NR's Sixers notes a GOP surge in Iowa, and in an article that's worth reading if only for the headline ("GOP on the rebound"), it's noted that Lincoln Chafee is within one. And over here at NR's the Corner, note a 'beltway watcher' who seems aqfully excited about one poll.

I hope that these are all indicative of a real surge - of undecideds considering what it would mean to put Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in charge of the War on Terror. We'll know soon enough if that's what this is about.

Update II: For the best spin on the good news, check out Lorie Byrd over at Wizbang. Count me skeptical, but I'd be thrilled to be wrong.

Update III: By the way, one of the more dependable predictors of election results is Tradesports. As of this writing, I don't see any uptick in the betting on the GOP retaining the House.

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