Tuesday, November 07, 2006


What a long, strange trip it's been. But at last we're here.

First off, please get out and vote - regardless of how long you have to wait. And as you cast your vote for Congress and Senate (if applicable), remember that the most important vote your official will cast during his or her term will be for Speaker or Majority Leader. If you vote Republican, you will be voting for action rather than passivity in protecting us from terror, for lower taxes, personal responsibility, and respect for individual rights and religious practice.

Equally as important, if you vote Republican today - when Democrats think they have a great chance to retake the House and Senate - you will be sending the Democratic party a message. You will be telling the Democratic leadership that they will not win majority support until they change their agenda. You'll be telling them to give you a real choice on election day, instead of a false one. If Democrats realize that the American people want fiscal repsonsibility, personal responsibility, and aggressiveness in protecting us from the terrorist threat, they can compete for your vote. Tell them that with regard to Iraq, this and this are not good enough.

And if you don't believe that the Democratic party can change, just look at gun control. Or rather, the lack of it. The Democrats realized it was a loser issue, and finally have dropped it from their agenda. There's no reason that over time, they can't come to realize the other reasons that they are not trusted. After all, even if they only go so far as to return to being the party of Clinton, weren't we as a nation better off when we had a choice between Clinton and the GOP? If you think the answer is 'no,' just remember how much better the GOP was when it competed against Bill Clinton, than it is today.

Even a partisan like myself will admit that America is better off when it has a choice of leadership on election day. So today, vote the only real choice you have. And cast that vote because you WANT a choice in the future.

Now, the predictions.

I have a really hard time figuring what is going to happen with the House of Representatives. I look at the polls, and those who interpret them, and I have a hard time thinking that every poll we have seen for months now (with the exception of a few upticks in the last days) is wrong. Unless the polls have been far off from Day 1, the Democrats will win the House. As much as I want to do otherwise, I have to predict a Democratic takeover of the House - with a little breathing room. I predict a Democratic gain of 21 seats. That will bring the breakdown in the House to 224 Democrats, 211 Republicans.

In the Senate, I think the GOP will have a better day than has been expected for a while. I expect Mike DeWine, Rick Santorum, and Lincoln Chafee will lose. But I think that Conrad Burns, George Allen, and Jim Talent will win. I expect Michael Steele will pull off a miracle, and be elected to the Senate in Maryland. The net will be a Democratic gain of 2 seats. For a 53-47 partisan breakdown.

And if the Democrats do take the House, George Bush will get the immigration amnesty he has been pushing for. But apart from that, he's likely to become a lot more popular as he finally has the chance to contrast himself with Nancy Pelosi, every day for the next two years. When Democrats pass rules to require dramatic new tax increases, and fight for higher spending levels than Bush requests, and hold hearings to scrutinize everything the White House does, conservatives will like George Bush a whole lot better than they do today.

And I sure hope I'm wrong.

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