Dean's Wasteful Spending

I'm one of many who's criticized Howard Dean's '50 State Strategy,' which holds that Democrats can't win nationally if they can't compete in Red States. It led Dean spent millions in states like Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Mississippi. I've said it was silly to spend scarce dollars on an effort likely to prove futile, and the DNC is now borrowing money to spend on competitive races.

So how does Dean's investment look so far? There are clearly a number of competitive races in previously safe GOP states and districts. Did Dean's money help create today's environment?

Let's look at the competitive races:

SENATE
Montana
Tennessee
Virginia
Ohio (Arguably 'purple,' but red at a statewide level)

Tennessee is probably the only Senate race that 'shouldn't' be competitive. Conrad Burns has shot himself in the foot, George Allen is still answering 'macaca' questions, and the Ohio GOP is in meltdown. And the only reason Tennessee is competitive is that Harold Ford is a great candidate.

For the House , I will look at Charlie Cook's latest rating of competitive races. Cook provides the Presidential Vote Index (PVI) for each House district. The PVI indicates how much redder or bluer the district is than the nation as a whole, in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential races. I'll list the competitive House districts which are more than 5 points redder than the entire country:

Likely Dem Seats
John Salazar (CO-3) Bush +6
Stephanie Herseth (SD-AL) Bush +10
Jim Matheson (UT-2) Bush +17

Lean Dem Seats
Jim Marshall (GA-8) Bush +8
John Spratt (SC-5) Bush +6
Chet Edwards (TX-17) Bush +18
Open (TX-22 DeLay) Bush +15
Alan Mollohan (WV-1) Bush +6

Toss Up Seats
John Hostettler (IN-8) Bush +9
Mike Sodrel (IN-9) Bush +7
Geoff Davis (KY-4) Bush +12
Charles Taylor (NC-11) Bush +7
Open (OH-18 Ney) Bush +6
Don Sherwood (PA-10) Bush +8
Thelma Drake (VA-2) Bush +6

Lean Republican Seats
John Doolittle (CA-4) Bush +11
Marilyn Musgrave (CO-4) Bush +9
Open (ID-1 Otter) Bush +19
Ron Lewis (KY-2) Bush +13
Open (NV-2 Gibbons) Bush +8

Likely Republican Seats
Open (CO-5 Hefley) Bush +16
Jim Ryun (KS-2) Bush +7
Jeff Fortenberry (NE-1) Bush +12
Jean Schmidt (OH-2) Bush +13
Barbara Cubin (WY-AL) Bush +19

We won't really know anything concrete until after November 7, but so far it doesn't look like Dean's gamble is paying off. I count only 8 competitive districts that probably 'shouldn't' be: Schmidt, Doolittle, Musgrave, Lewis, Sodrel, Davis, Taylor, and Drake. To me, that looks like 'the wave,' and not Dean's money.

The GOP is weak in three districts for obvious reasons (DeLay, Ney, & Sherwood). Seven seats are held by Democratic incumbents who've already won in hostile territory (Marshall, Edwards, Salazar, Herseth, Matheson, Spratt, Mollohan). At least one seat is held by someone who is a weak campaigner, and who always has close races (Hostettler). The rest are open seats (which are always more competitive), and seats that probably aren't actually competitive (Ryun, Fortenberry, Cubin).

Howard Dean says that his spending was a long-term investment - one that won't necessarily pay off in one cycle. That's good, because I don't see any payoff yet. And of course, if Democrats win the House, all sins are likely to be forgiven - at least for a little while.

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Campaigns Borrowing Money

I've alluded to the point that Democrats have taken out a loan to help fund Senate races. The Hotline's Chuck Todd reports that those funds are intended primarily to help Jim Webb and Robert Menendez:

DNC Takes Out Loan For DSCC

The DSCC's optimism about winning the Senate is apparently contagious as the DNC is going to pony up an extra $5-10M for the Senate committee, according to sources familiar with the previously reported arrangement between the two campaign orgs.

While the DNC doesn't have $10M to just toss around to another campaign committee, the DNC apparently has decided to go into debt to come up with the extra cash DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has been pleading for from DNC Chair Howard Dean. The actual amount of the loan the DNC is taking out is not known as the committee holds out hope they can raise nearly everything they need before the election. But a line of credit has been opened.

The money is not designated for specific Senate races, however, sources tell us that two races in particular were used as leverage in negotiations between the DSCC and the DNC. Those two races: New Jersey and Virginia. Apparently the extra DNC money will help soften the financial blow the DSCC was taking by incurring the extra cost of saving Sen. Bob Menendez from the challenge of Republican Tom Kean Jr. as well also trying to target Virginia. New Jersey and Virginia sport three of the most expensive media markets in the country (NYC, Philly and DC). In addition, TN was also a factor in the DNC-DSCC discussions as the investment the DSCC is making is possibly more than they expected.

A national party committee taking out a loan toward the end of an election cycle is not unusual, particularly on the Democratic side of the aisle. In '04, the DCCC took out a loan in an attempt to save the Texas Democratic House incumbents. In the end, four of those five Texas Democratic incumbents lost.

There has been some speculation (driven a bit by Democratic pundits like James Carville) that the DCCC might take out another loan this cycle in order to spend money on some of these new House seats that have come into play over the last few weeks.

The RNC is proving to be an important cog to the Republicans' efforts to hold the House and Senate, particularly the Senate. It's been something that's gotten under the skin of Schumer and DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel. It'll be interesting to see if Dean's decision to go into debt will finally get Schumer and Emanuel off his back. [CHUCK TODD]

As a Virginian, I suspect that the money on Webb will wind up being poorly spent. No matter how well the Democrats may do this year, I don't think they'll be able to beat George Allen - unless something new pops up. I'm hopeful that New Jersey voters will finally reject a criminal running for office, and vote Kean.

Of course, if the Democrats win one chamber of Congress, they'll be able to raise the money to repay this loan. So it might be a good bet.

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Dash of Cold Water

Because I've posted too much optimistic stuff recently, today I have the requisite dash of cold water. Mickey notes that the latest Majority Watch Robopoll shows Democrats leading outside the margin of error in 222 House races. And Today's piece by Mort Kondracke in Roll Call (subscription required) has a simple and straightforward title:

Practically No One Thinks Republicans Can Hold the House
October 19, 2006
By Morton M. Kondracke,
Roll Call Executive Editor

Except at the White House and the top reaches of the Republican National Committee, I can hardly find a single politician, consultant or pollster, Democratic or Republican, who thinks the GOP can retain control of the House.

And even at the White House, the messages are mixed. Strategist-in-chief Karl Rove is proclaiming that Republicans will pull out a victory. On the other hand, one aide also told me that the chances of Republicans retaining narrow control is in the 40 percent to 45 percent range — that is, less than a 50-50 shot — while Democrats’ chances of winning either narrowly or with a bigger margin are greater.

Republicans are more optimistic about the Senate, where they think retaining contested seats in Arizona, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia will leave them with a 51-seat majority, assuming they lose in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, and fail to pick up New Jersey...

Republican consultants I’ve talked to say they expect House losses to range anywhere from 20 seats — five more than Democrats need to take over — up to 30 or more.

Democrats say they frantically are trying to keep up with new House opportunities that previously were deemed second- or third-tier contests — as many as 60 seats potentially in play, up from 50 a few weeks ago. “The field is vast,” one consultant told me...

Among the seats Democrats now consider in play are Colorado’s 5th district, which came open with the retirement of GOP Rep. Joel Hefley. President Bush carried the district with 66 percent of the vote in 2004. Also considered in play is Michigan’s 7th, where Bush won 54 percent and moderate Rep. Joe Schwarz lost the GOP primary to conservative Tim Walberg.

Other potential new targets are Reps. Jim Leach in Iowa’s 2nd district; Jean Schmidt in Ohio’s 2nd; Gil Gutknecht in Minnesota’s 1st; Mike Ferguson in New Jersey’s 7th; Charles Bass in New Hampshire’s 2nd; Robin Hayes in North Carolina’s 8th; and Cathy McMorris in Washington’s 5th, plus Nevada’s 2nd, an open seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons.

Bush carried those 10 districts by an average of 54.7 percent...

Bush’s overall approval rating in the latest Gallup Poll was 37 percent, 4 points below what former President Bill Clinton’s was in 1994. Dealing with North Korea’s nuclear threat may help him marginally, but it hurts that the threat is worsening on his watch.

The latest RealClearPolitics.com generic ballot gives Democrats a 14-point edge in House races. In 1994, Republicans outpolled Democrats by just 7 points, and Democratic experts calculate that, factoring in gerrymandering of House districts, they need a national vote margin of just 7 points to 8 points to capture 15 seats.

In a joint survey for National Public Radio, the first-rate GOP and Democratic polling firms Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner reported this week that in the 48 most-contested House districts, when voters were asked, by name, which candidate they favored, 50 percent chose the Democrat to 43 percent for the Republican. Six percent were undecided...

One GOP pollster told me that the Democratic tilt of swing voters — especially independents and white women — is the main factor operating against his party this year. “They are frustrated with the lack of success in Iraq. They are scared about the future of the economy. They doubt us on social issues. And, they say, ‘We let you run things for 12 years. We want something different...’”

The result, he said, is that “Democrats are sitting on our three-yard line. It’s first and goal. Maybe we can hold them, but they’ve got four plays to score. If they don’t, it’s their fault.” The bottom line is that Republicans need to be better at defense than the Chicago Bears.

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More GOP Incumbents in Trouble?

Amidst reports that the DCCC is considering taking out a big loan to fund the expanding field of competitive races they see, is this report that Melissa Hart is one Republican whose race has suddenly turned into a good opportunity for Democrats:

NRCC nervous about Rep. Hart's race
By Jonathan E. Kaplan

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) bought nearly $200,000 in television airtime on Tuesday to defend Rep. Melissa Hart’s (R-Pa.) seat while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has reserved airtime in the race that had previously been considered a safe seat for Republicans.

The sizable television buys indicate that the field of competitive House races is expanding; Democrats are finding opportunities in places where they had not expected to be competitive. In Hart’s district, there are 55,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, "We seek to solve potential problems before they become problems," said Carl Forti, the NRCC’s spokesman...

This story probably doesn't really indicate any trouble for Hart. Note that the DCCC 'reserved' airtime. They have not bought it, and might well never air any ads.

Rather, this story illustrates where the race for the House is today: Democrats are talking about a wealth of potential new opportunities. Melissa Hart, Gil Gutknecht, Bill Sali (the GOP candidate in Idaho's open seat) have all been heavy favorites, but Democrats suddenly sense opportunity.

The race for Congress may soon look like a high-stakes poker game. Don't be surprised to hear soon that the DCCC is borrowing money to fund newly-competitive House races. And expect one of the GOP campaign committees to borrow money as well, if only to demonstrate its confidence.

Which side is bluffing?

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GOP Win in Foley Seat Gets Harder

For every piece of good news for the GOP, there's a piece (or two) of bad news:

'Vote for Foley is vote for Negron' signs may not be displayed, judge rules
By Vanessa Blum
Sun-Sentinel.com
October 18, 2006, 6:25 PM EDT

Election supervisors in Mark Foley's old district may not display notices informing voters the disgraced Republican congressman has been replaced by another candidate, a Tallahassee judge ruled Wednesday.

Information sheets stating a vote for Foley would go to Republican state Rep. Joe Negron might ease voters' confusion, said Leon County Circuit Judge Janet Ferris. However, they would violate Florida laws limiting what information can be provided to prospective voters at polling places, she ruled after hearing from lawyers Wednesday morning.

Supervisors in most of the affected counties had planned to display notices in their precincts stating: "A vote for Mark Foley [Rep.] will be counted for Joe Negron [Rep.], the Republican candidate."

The sheets would also say a vote for Democratic candidate Tim Mahoney counts for Mahoney and a vote for unaffiliated candidate Emmie Ross counts for Ross.

The Florida Democratic Party filed suit Friday claiming the proposed notice violated Florida law by referencing specific candidates and constituted favoritism toward the Republican Party.

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Best Reason Yet for GOP Optimism

All of us on the Right are debating whether the GOP majorities are gone, or whether they can be salvaged. We're wondering how important the GOP money advantage is, particularly when the Democrats are taking out big loans (effectively 'doubling down' on the elections), and we're trying to figure out how much of what Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman is saying is true, and how much is designed to cheer the base enough to make Speaker Pelosi's majority really narrow.

Well, here is the first evidence I've seen that Rove and Mehlman are giving us more than happy words. According to the Hotline, GOP voter outreach and Get Out the Vote efforts are looking more successful than ever:

Why The White House Has To Be Optimistic
Perhaps the biggest danger to Republicans in the wake of all these bad polls is that their volunteer base, so critical to victory in 2004, won't put their heart in their work. If volunteers become convinced that Republicans will lose control of Congress, what incentive do they have to work hard?

If you're ever read a profile of Ken Mehlman, you know he is obsessed with metrics. For him, one of the most important sources of data is a weekly e-mail his political team prepares called the "Weekly Grassroots Report." It meticulously records the work of tens of thousands of volunteers in targeted states, counties and congressional districts across the country. The data summary allows the RNC to determine which states are meeting goals and which states are falling behind.

The RNC declined to share the most recent report, which was issued Monday. But two independent sources who saw last week's report professed to be surprised: not only was their no drop off last week, 12 states broke new voter contact records.

In a month, the party completed more than a million phone calls and door contacts conbined. Bigger states are putting up big numbers -- even Ohio, which lagged behind its targets all summer, has caught up. The RNC is particularly pleased with their progress in New Jersey, where they've rapidly set up a more aggressive version of their 72 Hour Program in light of the state's more competitive Senate race.

These are the numbers that motivate Karl Rove's optimism. The spreadsheets show that Republican volunteers are working hard. There are plenty of volunteers and they seem plenty willing to knock on doors and make telephone calls. That's why it makes sense for Rove, for White House pol. dir Sara Taylor, and for Mehlman to exude uncanny optimism even while their brains pour [sic ]over pessimistic polls. Right now, a strong volunteer corps on election day working to turn out voters is the only hope they've got. If the volunteers detect a shred of defeatist cross-talk or come across a newspaper article suggesting that Rove is panicked, then they'll start to panic, too.

The point is that top-level Republican optimism is pragmatic, not ignorant. [MARC AMBINDER]

I think Ambinder ought to have changed his headline and shifted the tone of his piece. The real point here is the one I highlighted in the last line: GOP optimism is pragmatic, not ignorant. The point is not that they are being optimistic to keep volunteers working; it's that the work of those volunteers leads to optimism.

Is it possible that all those volunteers and all those phone calls are going to waste? Are GOP voters so dispirited that getting them to the polls will be like trying to wring blood from a stone? I suppose. But given that this is the same machine that took the dispirited base which expected a Bush loss in 2004, and turned it into record-shattering turnout, how likely is that?

After all, this effort doesn't need to elect a President, it only needs to limit losses to 15 seats in the House and 5 or so in the Senate. I think there's a decent chance it can do that.

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Why Does the Left Hate Gays?

As is often the case, I can't add much to the observations of Captain Ed. Except to ask a question: why are so many on the Left so obsessed with identity politics? It seems that white men are the only group in our culture permitted to have a variety of views. If you are black, or latino, or gay, or a woman, your political views must correspond neatly to your label.

Gays who oppose gay marriage, African-Americans who oppose racial preferences, women who oppose abortion, are all in one way or another traitors to their identity. If we required the same orthodoxy of white males, wouldn't the Kennedys be the ultimate traitors to the rich white male identity? Why am I - by virtue of the color of my skin - permitted to think for myself, but others are not?

Is this not the ultimate example of racism and sexism?

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Unrelenting Focus on the Border Fence

The White House and Congressional leadership are arguing over when to sign the Border Fence Bill. Leadership in Congress wants a signing with much fanfare, close to the election, while the White House wants a quiet event that won't grab as much attention:

"It's a timing issue: We want it signed closer to the election when folks are paying attention and those who want to take advantage of the messaging opportunity can do so, and the White House is aware of this," said an aide to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Tennessee Republican. House Republican leadership aides confirmed that strategy.

Mr. Bush has already signed a spending bill with money for some fencing, but has yet to sign the bill actually authorizing the double-wall fence along nearly 700 miles of the border. Congress passed both bills in the waning days of the legislative session last month.

Many blogs from across the political spectrum have speculated he is trying to scuttle the bill with a pocket veto, but Mr. Bush has said he will sign it, though in private, without a signing ceremony.

Congressional Republicans said that is a bad move at a critical political time.

"A public signing ceremony with the maximum amount of fanfare in a high-profile place would be the best thing the president could do to help out Republicans who are having trouble in their re-elections," said Rep. Steve King, Iowa Republican, adding that such a ceremony would go a long way to counteract cynicism from voters who question the White House's commitment to border security.

So the President wants a quiet ceremony without much fanfare. Sounds almost like the way Clinton signed the Defense of Marriage Act, huh? Where have I heard that before?

I wonder if it causes physical damage to pat oneself on the back...

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Experts Differ on Foley Impact

So how deeply will the Mark Foley scandal impact turnout among evangelicals and other conservative 'values voters?' My gut tells me not all that much.

Karl Rove agrees with me. (But of course, he's paid to say what he says).

On the other hand, the erratic Dick Morris says this is the whole ball game, and the GOP is out faster and uglier than the New York Yankees.

I must say, I take optimism from the fact that Joe Negron is doing well. As in the special electon to replace Duke Cunningham: if the issue isn't the be-all and end-all in the district where it happened, how can it be decisive in dozens of races in differnt states and political environments?

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The Vulnerable Tasmanian Devil

I believe I'm coming late to the party, but I learned only recently that Tasmanian Devils are dying at extraordinary rates due to Devil Facial Tumor Disease (mildly disturbing picture)

You can view footage of the Devil here, or listen to one here, both at the website of Tasmania's Department of Primary Industries and Water.

Wikipedia gives what I imagine to be an accurate summary of DFTD. But with Wikipedia, who knows...

Based on the traditional Warner Brothers rendition of the Tasmanian Devil, I would not have guessed that they look more like the highly-dangerous Rodents of Unusual Size (ROUS).

Hat Tip: Joe

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Pelosi's Nightmare

It's not all that unusual for a candidate for Speaker not to get all the votes of his (or her) conference. In fact, Nancy Pelosi herself did not get the votes of all Democrats when she ran for Speaker at the start of the current Congress. Gene Taylor of Mississippi refused to vote for her, because she was too liberal.

If his vote is needed to give Pelosi the speakership, will Taylor change his mind? And what about Henry Cuellar of Texas, who supported Bush for re-election, and whom Democrats tried to defeat because they viewed him as a closet Republican?

Pelosi had better hope for a margin of more than a seat or two.

Welcome Kaus readers, and thanks Mickey for the traffic. Feel free to look around, or read how the Secure Fence Act is like the Defense of Marriage Act.

Update: A commenter reports that Gene Taylor has indicated that he will vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker next year. An article in The Hill confirms that. The same article indicates that Henry Cuellar also voiced support. That definitely seems to remove the two most likely candidates to undercut Pelosi's Speaker bid.

Chavez Jumps the Shark

A few months ago Hugo Chavez was on the rise in Latin America. He busted his way into Mercosur, turned former allies against the US, flirted with North Korea and Iran, and generally fomented leftist revolution in the Americas. Now it looks like he's yesterday's news.

Today it looks like he'll fall short in his goal to win a spot on the UN Security Council. If he does indeed fail, then John Bolton will have done the UN a great service by keeping the Security Council from being the same sort of laughing stock that the General Assembly has become.

Meanwhile, back in Latin America, the conservative Felipe Calderon defeated Chavez's candidate in Mexico's Presidential race. Chavez's chief regional rival - Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva - appears on track to win re-election in Brazil. His candidate in Ecuador's Presidential race is looking very weak against his conservative opponent. And his candidate in Peru was defeated by a US ally.

And in what might be the most alarming development for Hugo, he may actually have to take domestic opposition to his re-election bid seriously - at least, if the huge rallies in support of his opponent are to be believed.

Just a few months ago, the dominant story in Latin America was the return of leftist populism. Now it looks like Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega may represent Chavez's only opportunity to salvage his reputation, in what was supposed to be a banner year for him.

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Team Hoyt: What Love Can Accomplish

A minimum of sappiness on my part. Please check out Wizbang's Kim Priestap over at her personal blog:

A Tribute to the Strongest Dad in the World
Wow. I found this at Barbara Curtis' site Mommy Life and it's awe-inspiring.

Strongest Dad in the World
Rick Reilly, Sports Illustrated

I try to be a good father. Give my kids mulligans. Work nights to pay for their text messaging. Take them to swimsuit shoots. But compared with Dick Hoyt, I suck.

Eighty-five times he's pushed his disabled son, Rick, 26.2 miles in marathons.

Eight times he's not only pushed him 26.2 miles in a wheelchair but also towed him 2.4 miles in a dinghy while swimming and pedaled him 112 miles in a seat on the handlebars--all in the same day.

Dick's also pulled him cross-country skiing, taken him on his back mountain climbing and once hauled him across the U.S. on a bike.

Makes taking your son bowling look a little lame, right?

And what has Rick done for his father?

Not much--except save his life.

This love story began in Winchester, Mass., 43 years ago, when Rick was strangled by the umbilical cord during birth, leaving him brain-damaged and unable to control his limbs. "He'll be a vegetable the rest of his life;"

Dick says doctors told him and his wife, Judy, when Rick was nine months old. "Put him in an institution."

But the Hoyts weren't buying it...

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Funny, Funny Movie...

I can't improve upon the comments of Jonathan Last over at Galley Slaves:

...You should click on that link. It's amazing. Like D.E.B.S. meets Van Damme's Street Fighter. You've never seen anything like it...

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Don't Look Now...

But the GOP appears to have a chance at Mark Foley's seat:

Poll: Democrat Leads In Former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley's District

Oct. 16 - The Democratic candidate running for the House seat once held by Mark Foley has a slim lead over a Republican rival, according to a newspaper poll published Sunday.

Democrat Tim Mahoney led Republican state Rep. Joe Negron 48 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided, according to the poll commissioned by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers.

Negron is filling the campaign vacancy left after six-term congressman Foley resigned amid reports that he exchanged sexually explicit Internet messages with teenage boys who worked on Capitol Hill.

Foley's name will remain on the ballot, with any votes cast for him going to Negron.

The poll also found that many voters in the 16th Congressional District in South Florida say their voting plans will not be influenced by the scandal.

According to the poll, 71 percent, including two-thirds of Democrats, said the scandal would have "no effect" on whether they would cast ballots for Mahoney on Nov. 7. And 72 percent said the page scandal would not influence their voting patterns in other races.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Maryland-based Research 2000 conducted the telephone survey of 600 likely voters in District 16 Wednesday through Friday for the newspapers.

If Negron is within 7 points, he has a chance.

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The '80s Rejoin

In honor of Alan Schlesinger, a Crazy Eddie collection:











By the way, I will make a substantive point. For all those who moan about declining standard of living, take a look at what TVs sold for during Crazy Eddie's ridiculous sales - $499, $599 - prices like that. Even ignoring inflation, you can buy a far better TV for the same price today. And I won't even get into how much better the programming is than it was in Crazy Eddie's day. (Although back then you could see Alf).

Wait a minute, am I rambling?

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Japan Prepares for DPRK Mischief

Japan Times: "'There are concerns that North Korea may launch large-scale terrorist attacks or sly and heinous activities in retaliation to additional sanctions,' said Hiroto Yoshimura, deputy director general of the National Police Agency."

Will Money Make a Difference

The Washington Post this morning spells out the biggest reason for Republicans to be optimistic about the race for control of the House: $$$$.

In 31 closely contested House races, Republican candidates have an advantage in cash-on-hand of more than 2-1. Anne Northup (R-KY) has three times the cash on hand of her Democratic opponent. Peter Roskam has 7 times as much as his opponent in the race for Henry Hyde's seat. Geoff Davis in Kentucky and Clay Shaw in Florida have advantages of about 4-1. Further, while the NRCC and the DCCC had roughly the same amount of cash on hand in the last filing (with a critical filing to be disclosed this week), the RNC had an advantage of about 4-1 on Howard Dean's DNC. (This is a topic I have written on almost ad nauseam).

So if campaign cash makes a difference, you can expect to see a whole bunch of close races tilt toward the GOP in the next few weeks. This is essential for the GOP, as even Ken Mehlman concedes that Democrats would win the House if the election were held today.

There is a critical question whose answer we may not know until election night, however: will cash make a difference this time? This might sound silly, but I bet that in 1994 no amount of money would have helped some Democrats win re-election. The wave was so big that some Democrats might have spent 4 or 5 times as much as they did and still lost. Will the GOP fall prey to the macrowave on election night, or will they be able to make headway in a range of districts where today they trail by a small margin, and still eke out a win?

I'll be watching polling indicators for the next few weeks, to see if there are signs of improvement. If we start to see analysts shift 'Toss-up' seats into the 'Lean GOP' column, it will definitely be a hopeful sign. Watch races like Chris Shays and Nancy Johnson in Connecticut, Clay Shaw in Florida, Geoff Davis in Kentucky, and Tom Reynolds in New York (which may also tell us how big the 'Foley Effect' will be). If many of those incumbents start to fight their way back to small leads, the GOP majorities definitely have a fighting chance.

I won't bet the house, but I think there's still reason to be optimistic.

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Why George Allen's Senate Race is Close

The Washington Post reports this morning that Virginia's proposed constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage looks likely to win statewide approval. And their indication of how different the view is in Northern Virginia from the rest of the state shows clearly why George Allen's Senate race is so close.

53% of Voters Say They Back Va. Same-Sex Marriage Ban
Only Area Against Measure Is N.Va., According to Poll
By Chris L. Jenkins
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 17, 2006; A01

A majority of Virginians support a proposed constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage and civil unions, although voters split on the measure when presented with interpretations of its potential impact, according to a new Washington Post poll.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters said they would vote for the amendment, and 43 percent would oppose it, the poll found, indicating that three weeks before Election Day opponents still have a long way to go to make Virginia the first state in the country to defeat a same-sex marriage amendment.

The only part of the state to oppose the measure was Northern Virginia, where voters rejected it 55 percent to 42 percent, further evidence that the Washington suburbs have become a political and social world apart from the rest of Virginia. Respondents in the rest of the state backed the measure 58 percent to 38 percent, according to the survey, conducted over three days last week.

Despite the overall results, the poll provided some hope for opponents of the measure. Their chief argument is that the language of the amendment is too broad and would endanger contracts between unwed heterosexual couples. Supporters contend that the measure is limited to declaring that same-sex marriages would never be approved or recognized in Virginia.

When respondents were read the arguments on both sides of the question, enough voters showed a willingness to reconsider that the gap narrowed to a virtual tie -- 48 percent said they supported the measure and 47 percent opposed it, within the poll's margin of error of three percentage points...

Several political scientists who have studied state ballot measures said the polling data from Virginia appeared to defy expectations, given the commonwealth's reputation as a conservative state.

"This is quite a surprise," said Daniel A. Smith, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida. "In an ostensibly conservative state like Virginia, you'd expect to see the numbers up around 60 or 70 percent."

The lower numbers in Virginia reflect a national trend of weakening support for state efforts to ban same-sex marriage, several experts said. Twenty states have passed similar measures since 1998, many with about 75 percent support. The lowest level of support an amendment received was 57 percent in Oregon in 2004.

But this year, poll results in several states with similar ballot measures show weaker support than in 2004, when 11 states passed constitutional amendments. Polls in Colorado and Wisconsin show results similar to Virginia's; poll results in South Dakota are mixed...

Among those who said they would vote for Democrat James Webb for U.S. Senate, 67 percent opposed the measure and 31 percent supported it. Allen favors the amendment, and Webb is opposed because he thinks the language goes beyond prohibiting same-sex marriage. Webb believes marriage is between one man and one woman.

The only group to significantly cross party lines was blacks. In the poll, blacks supported Webb by 81 percent to 11 percent, but they favored the amendment 61 percent to 34 percent. "I don't believe in gay relationships; I just don't believe that they are right," said Aaron Moore, 26, from Chesapeake, who added that he follows the Pentecostal faith and will vote for Webb. "Even though I'm a Democrat, it's just something that I disagree with most Democrats on."

Whites supported the measure 51 percent to 45 percent, the poll found...

The full poll data is here. It shows Allen leading Webb by a margin of 49-47%. I don't see the methodology for the poll, so I can't tell how many Republicans and how many Democrats were sampled.

Further, I am not sure how the poll defines 'Northern Virginia.' But if you consider Northern Virginia to consist of Arlington, Fairfax, Prince William and Loudon counties, as well as Alexandria and Fairfax cities, then it comprises slightly under 2 million of Virginia's population of 7.6 million. And the region is growing like crazy, and is considerably more liberal than the rest of the state.

And a ban on gay marriage is supported 58-38% through most of the state, and opposed in Northern Virginia 55-42%. If you needed any indication of why GOP candidates are no longer sure-fire winners, you have it here.

They say that grography is destiny. In California, the state traditionally had a Senator from the Bay Area, and a Senator from the South. In Pennsylvania, races cut along Pittsburgh/Philadelphia lines. In New York, former mayors of New York City do not win statewide races. And perhaps most famously, Democrats do best when they nominate conservative Southern Governors for the Presidency.

Well, since geography is destiny in Virginia as well, the GOP in Virginia will soon do best when it nominates Northern Virginia moderates for statewide office. We won't see that many more Senators like George Allen, and will instead see Senators like Tom Davis.

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Betting on Kolbe

AP reports that the House Page Board has discussed allegations against a second lawmaker. Speculation turns to Congressman Jim Kolbe (R-AZ):

Page board said discussed other charges
By LARRY MARGASAK, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 5 minutes ago

Allegations of improper conduct toward teenage pages that are unrelated to ex-Rep. Mark Foley are under discussion by House overseers of the program, according to a Democratic lawmaker involved in the talks.

Rep. Dale Kildee of Michigan, the only Democrat on the House Page Board, would not say Monday whether the allegations involved Republicans or Democrats, lawmakers or staff members. He said nothing has been proven.

In his unexpected remarks, Kildee — who is unhappy Republicans did not tell him about Foley's improper approaches to male pages — said the page board discussed the new allegations in a conference call Monday.

"It was about other allegations and I'd like to leave it at that," he said. "Let me just say, not about Mr. Foley. It's only been allegations."

If any Republicans are involved, new allegations could further damage the majority party in Congress less than a month before the election. Polls already show the GOP has been damaged by the scandal involving Foley, R-Fla., who sent former male pages too-friendly e-mails and sexually explicit instant messages.

While Kildee did not divulge details, it is known that federal prosecutors in Arizona have opened a preliminary investigation into an unspecified allegation related to a camping trip that Rep. Jim Kolbe (news, bio, voting record), R-Ariz., took with two former pages and others in 1996. Kolbe, the only openly gay Republican in the House, has denied any wrongdoing...

Good old AP! 'If any Republicans are involved, new allegations could further damage the majority party...' Not 'if any Democrats are involved, it could damage the minority party's effort to retake control...'

Well, anyway, Kildee could certainly be referring to Kolbe, because there reportedly are allegations against him:

Arizona lawmaker's '96 trip with ex-pages investigated
By DAN EGGEN
Washington Post

WASHINGTON — The U.S. attorney's office in Phoenix has opened a preliminary investigation of a 1996 camping trip that included Rep. Jim Kolbe, R-Ariz., and two 17-year-old boys who participated in the congressional page program, law enforcement officials said Friday.

One official cautioned that the inquiry was based on allegations from one unidentified source that has not been substantiated. The allegations involve Kolbe's behavior toward one of the ex-pages, the official said.

The trip down the Grand Canyon also included several Kolbe staffers and National Park Service employees, according to NBC News, which first reported the investigation. Kolbe's office said in a statement to NBC that "there is absolutely no basis and no truth" to any allegations of inappropriate behavior.

This said, I really doubt Kolbe has done anything wrong. Having had a fair amount of interaction with him over the years, he is friendly and somewhat physical. He will clap your shoulder, or grab your elbow, or slap you on the knee if he's joking. Everyone who deals with him knows it. But I've never gotten the sense that there was anything more than that. And where Foley was regarded as somewhat creepy, people are comfortable with Kolbe. I've never heard a suggestion of inappropriate behavior from him - certainly not toward pages.

If the Page Board is discussing allegations against him, I bet it amounts to nothing.

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Bump in the Road for Lieberman

Polls have shown Joe Lieberman with a healthy lead in his race for re-election as an Independent in Connecticut. In the recent debate between Lieberman, Ned Lamont, and the Republican candidate Alan Schlesinger, a potential threat to Lieberman's re-election has emerged. That threat is Alan Schlesinger:

The ghost of Crazy Eddie was channeled Monday by a man who would be Connecticut's next senator -- and whose name is neither Lieberman nor Lamont.

This candidate's name is Alan Schlesinger. He is the official candidate nominated by the Republican Party to replace Joe Lieberman in the U.S. Senate. He trails both Lieberman -- who's now running as a "Connecticut for Lieberman" candidate -- and Democrat Ned Lamont by far in this fall's Senate race; Republicans are overwhelmingly backing Lieberman instead. Schlesinger has been drowned out by all the attention on the other two candidates.

So Schlesinger came out swinging -- literally, with his hands at times -- when he finally got to debate his two opponents in a televised debate. He injected a new factor into the race. Lieberman sought to focus attention, and criticism, on Lamont, his closest rival. But Schlesinger pounced on them both throughout the debate, and sought to establish himself as the conservative alternative to two "liberal Democrats."

He made his pitch to conservative and moderate voters on issues ranging such as flag-burning (only he supports a constutional amendment against it). “Don’t listen to Joe’s rhetoric," Schlesinger declared. "Watch his voting record.”

The 1-2 p.m. debate, the first of three scheduled over the next week in this home stretch of the too-close-to-call race, took place at the Stamford Marriott Hotel. It was sponsored by the Business Council of Fairfield County. Channels 12 and 30 carried the debate live.

...Schlesinger arrived pumped, too... During the debate he raised his voice, cracked up the audience with exhortations like, "Look out Ned and Joe, here I come baby!"...

Schlesinger set himself apart from both Lieberman and Lamont on issues like immigration. "Joe favors amnesty… Ned Lamont he actually wants to give them scholarships," Schlesinger said. "Alan Schlesigner is the only one on this stage who has a tough policy. I want to build the walls. I want to make sure there is no road to residency. I am the son of a legal immigrant. There are people today who attempted to come here as legal immigrants and died. Now we’ve got people flooding into this nation for no other reason than they want a better life for themselves. … We have to secure the borders… “We have to use drones.“

Similarly, while Lamont and Lieberman bickered about whether Lieberman is weak on preventing privatization of social security, Schlesinger called for investing some of the social security trust fund in home mortgages.

“Both of these gentlemen stand for social security and medicare bankruptcy," Schlesinger said. "I call the United States Senate the ostrich club… It [social security] is the greatest iceberg this nation is facing. Social security is so underfunded they make the national debt look like a litle walk in the park...”

Schlesinger's chance of winning is nearly zero. But Lieberman is depending on a substantial portion of the Republican vote to win. A recent Hartford Courant poll showed Lieberman with an 8 point lead over Lamont, and Schlesinger with just 4%. And surely Schlesinger's support comes almost entirely from Lieberman. If Schlesinger were to increase his support to just 10 or 15 percent, Liberman would probably have no chance.

With the New York Times and others set to toss dirt on Lamont's grave, his tactic becomes clear: he has to help Schlesinger win GOP votes. Note the compliments for Schlesinger from Jane Hamsher at Firedoglake:

...why has the GOP been allowed by those who call themselves "true conservatives" to abandon the candidate who supposedly represents their values? And why has the media so slavishly accepted all the narratives coming out of the Lieberman4Lieberman campaign, to the complete exclusion of the guy who legitimately won the GOP nomination?...

Alan Schlessinger kicked Lieberman's ass for the GOP vote he so critically needs to win, and Lamont gave him no quarter on the Democratic side (and looked very senatorial in the process). While there are many good things to say about both Lamont and Schlessinger in the debate today, the loser was clearly — Joe Loserman.

Expect to see more Schlesinger cheerleading from the Lamont camp. And it will be interesting to see if Schlesinger is raising money from that camp. The most recent campaign filing I see on the FEC website shows Schlesinger having raised a total of $113K. I wonder if the next report will show more donations from those who want to build Schlesinger up in order to tear Lieberman down.

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Left Brain Rules!

You Are 90% Left Brained, 10% Right Brained

The left side of your brain controls verbal ability, attention to detail, and reasoning. Left brained people are good at communication and persuading others. If you're left brained, you are likely good at math and logic. Your left brain prefers dogs, reading, and quiet. The right side of your brain is all about creativity and flexibility. Daring and intuitive, right brained people see the world in their unique way. If you're right brained, you likely have a talent for creative writing and art. Your right brain prefers day dreaming, philosophy, and sports.

Are You Right or Left Brained?

Hat Tip: ALa

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Another One Bites the Dust...

By most accounts, Curt Weldon is trailing in his race for re-election against Democrat Joe Sestak. It looks like the Fat Lady is singing, in the form of an FBI raid on the home of his daughter, who is a highly-compensated lobbyist with Russian and Serbian clients who apparently benefit from her father's actions in Congress.

With all the talk about pre-emptive post-mortems of the Republican failure on election day, I'll toss my two cents in on a side that has gotten little attention: Larry Sabato's. If the GOP loses its House majority, it will be for many reasons: arrogance in power, loss of the reformist mantle, the 6 year itch, and others. But despite the litany of complaints against Republicans over how they have run the Congress, a fatal flaw may prove to be that they have given away too many seats.

Consider how the GOP has shot itself in the foot in slam-dunk GOP districts. Tom DeLay's seat is probably gone. Bob Ney's seat looks lost. Don Sherwood reportedly had an affair and choked his paramour, (he's run ads apologizing for it). Mark Foley's is likely lost. Curt Weldon's appears headed for a Democratic takeover. Tom Reynolds has an easy seat, that may be lost solely because of Foley. That's at least 6 easy-win GOP seats that the majority party has given away! If Democrats retake the House, it will probably be by a margin of 6 or less.

Like the basketball team that misses free throws, House Republicans may see their majorities lost by unforced errors that were entirely in their own control.

And another point: Jim Geraghty comments out that whatever else happens, the next set of Congressional GOP leaders are likely to be more aggressive conservatives, as moderate GOPers are defeated for re-election. While it is almost always true that swing districts tend to elect moderate Members of Congress, who are the first ones defeated, that's probably not the case this year. Look at the endangered Republicans, and their lifetime ratings from the ACU:

Rob Simmons -- 54%
Chris Shays -- 47%
Clay Shaw -- 82%
Chris Chocola -- 95%
John Hostettler -- 90%
Mike Sodrel -- 92%
Geoff Davis -- 88%
Heather Wilson -- 82%
Tom Reynolds -- 88%
Steve Chabot -- 98%
Deborah Pryce -- 79%
Jim Gerlach -- 67%
Curt Weldon -- 70%
Don Sherwood -- 87%
Henry Bonilla -- 91%
Thelma Drake -- 92%
Dave Reichert -- 64%

If that's representative of the group that ends up losing on election day - which seems likely but is not a sure bet - it definitely doesn't qualify as the liberal wing of the GOP. Rather, it looks more like the conference as a whole - one or two at the left end of the party, a few moderates, and about half of them legitimate conservatives.

I suspect that the next set of GOP leaders will be more aggressive reformers, and perhaps more conservative, but it will be because they have seen that it is political suicide to ignore Republican principles. I don't think it will be because moderates have been culled.

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Saddam Verdict on November 5

Well, assuming that Saddam is convicted and sentenced to death on November 5, what will the impact be on the elections two days later? Will there be a series of attacks by insurgents, that the media will portray as increased signals of a coming civil war? Will Americans voters regard it as a sign that Iraq is 'turning the corner?'

Is this Karl Rove's Ace in the Hole?

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Replacing Immigrant Labor

Will a border fence stanch the flow of illegal immigrant labor? It's work that Americans will do, given the right business model.

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Studds Dies a Timely Death; Fishing Highlighted

The GOP is still trying to figure out why Gerry Studds was a some kind of gay superhero for secretly having sex with underage Congressional pages, while Mark Foley seems to be the antichrist for having sex chat with them. But while Studds's actions were deplorable, and his refusal to acknowledge that was disgusting, at least he picked a useful time to shuffle off the mortal coil. Even some Democrats might be shamed into silence over Foley, when Studds's death proves a reminder of their moral bankruptcy on the whole issue.

Here's what Nancy Pelosi had to say about Foley:

"The children who work as Pages in the Congress are Members’ special trust...

The children, their parents, the public, and our colleagues must be assured that such abhorrent behavior is not tolerated and will never happen again."

So far no comment on Studds (at least that I have seen).

John Kerry remains the picture of shameless hypocrisy. With regard to the Foley scandal, he recently said:

"This issue is here because of a Republican cover-up," he said. "And those from the party that preach moral values that covered this up have no right to preach moral values any more."

Of Studds, Kerry had this to say:

Gerry was a stalwart champion of New England's fishing families as well as a committed environmentalist who worked hard to demonstrate that the cause of working people and the cause of the environment go hand in hand with the right leadership. When he retired from Congress, he did not retire from the cause, continuing to fight for the fishing industry and New England's environmental causes.

Kerry apparently thinks that Studds still had legitimacy on 'moral values' issues like supporting New England's fishing families. It'll be funny if someone corners him and forces him to explain the contradiction.

Ted Kennedy reportedly called for an investigation into who knew about Foley's behavior. But he too, seems to have been unfazed by the actions of Studds. His statement also focuses on fisheries:

"Gerry's leadership changed Massachusetts forever and we'll never forget him... His work on behalf of our fishing industry and the protection of our waters has guided the fishing industry into the future and ensured that generations to come will have the opportunity to love and learn from the sea. . . . Gerry's work in Congress can still be seen in the towns and cities he fought for, in the constituents who became friends, and on the waters he worked tirelessly to protect."

I suppose maybe I'm being too harsh. Perhaps the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy has committeed serial truncation of the Democrats' reaction quotes. Because if you look at this list, there's not a mention of behavior that Democrats seemed to think was so deplorable when we were talking about Mark Foley.


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GOPer Shows Mexico's Weak Border Security

Maybe I'm just in grumpy mood, but I didn't find this commercial as funny as others have. Further, while the candidate gives the impression that he has just entered the US illegally, the caption on the news story says he just entered Mexico illegally.



Now I support border enforcement as much as the next guy. But really, illegal entry by Americans into Mexico is not a big problem. If this news story is accurate and that is what this guy in fact did, I'm not especially impressed.

Hat tip: Ace

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Election Day Turnout

In recent years, the perception is that the GOP has been helped on election day by folks turning out to vote on important social questions, such as gay marriage and affirmative action. This year the GOP base is widely regarded as dispirited and less likely to come to the polls. Indeed, when pollsters produce samples that are heavily weighted toward Democrats, they sometimes explain that their measure of voter interest indicates that voters this year will be heavily Democratic.

Now this all might be true.

Yet in this discussion, I hear very little mention of ballot initiatives - and there are a ton this year. Are social conservatives not going to come out to vote on them? Or are they going to come out and vote Democratic? or leave the ballots for House and Senate blank? None of those seems very likely to me. Or is it something different - that these initiatives activate more liberal voters than in the past, so the GOP advantage is washed out?

Stu Rothenberg compiles a list of ballot initiatives here. The list includes polls for the initiatives where they are available.

It shows that for ballot initiatives on abortion, what might be called the 'GOP Position' leads in Oregon, while the 'Dem position' leads in South Dakota, and there's a virtual tie in California. On stem cells, Democrats lead in Missouri. On affirmative action, the GOP leads in Michigan. There are same-sex marriage initiatives in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin. Polls show the 'GOP position' leading in Wisconsin and Tennessee, with what you might call a tie in Colorado. On drug legalization, the GOP leads in Nevada and Colorado.

There are a raft of other initiatives on a range of issues. There are several states with measures raising the minimum wage and education spending; these might benefit Democratic candidates.

But overall, I have to think that GOPers will be helped in states with favorable ballot measures and close races. I'm thinking about people like George Allen, Mike Bouchard, Bob Corker, JD Hayworth, and the GOP candidates in Colorado. Where those races (or others) are close, I would think that the GOP candidate is likely to receive a 'turnout boost' worth a few percentage points.

Can anyone provide more info on how pollsters are accounting for this?

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Spoof Sites

National Journal (subscription required) has an interesting piece on the increasing use of 'spoof sites' in congressional races:

www.DoesThisSpoofSiteReallyWork.com
Politicos Get Creative And Aggressive In Posting Opposition Research On The Web

By Erin McPike and Patrick Ottenhoff, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2006

In early September, the Republican National Committee launched AmericaWeakly.com to take a humorous jab at what Congress would look like if the Democrats gained control. Mocking the minority party, the site features funny snapshots of notorious liberal legislators and satirical accounts of what their agenda might resemble. It's like the Onion -- but an Onion in which every joke is on the Democrats.

And Democrats aren't the only party being ribbed online. AmericaWeakly was a kind of counterpoint to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's FudgeReport.net, a site modeled after the Drudge Report that skewers Republicans.

Cheap to run and easy to put together, Web pages like these "spoof sites" are popping up in a number of competitive races this cycle. They first surfaced in Senate campaigns, but are trickling down to House races, too...

But Washington-based campaign committees aren't the only groups producing spoof sites. Internet-savvy campaigns themselves are also in on the act.

Virginia Davis, campaign spokeswoman for Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., said the spoof site targeting Democratic opponent Bob Casey, WheresCasey.com, has "become part of our messaging strategy." Indeed, Santorum continues to ream Casey for ducking debates, along with his duties as state treasurer, during his campaign...

The sites listed by NJ:

America Weakly
The Fudge Report
The Pryce is Not Right
Where's Casey?
George's Journeys
The Real Steele
Fancy Ford
Clueless Claire
Far Out Brown
Pedersons Liberal Express
Very Fancy Frist
Double Talk Express
Too Junior for Jersey
George Allen for Prez

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Tracking the Congressional Election

So how big is the wave that's going to wipe out the GOP on November 7? Why do Republicans act as if they still have hope? Will Democrats top 400 House seats and 80 Senate seats? How do I keep track?

Well, Roll Call has made available a free tracker of the House and Senate races that take place in a few weeks. They list the number of safe, likely, and leaning races for each party, and tell you where the tossups are, and how they look.

As of the morning of October 12, they list the GOP as having 206 House races at least leaning their way, and the Democrats with 208. They identify 21 tossup races. Simple math tells you that the GOP needs to hold all their safe/likely/leaning races, and then win 12 of the 21 tossups to hold the majority. The Democrats need to retain their own, and win 10 of the tossups.

Looks like the map is updated frequently, so it might be worth a bookmark.

Looking at the specific races identified as tossups, it looks to me like the GOP definitely has a reasonable shot at winning 12 of the 21. Is that the outcome I would bet on? Check back on election day.

Also, not to get too far down into the weeds, but don't forget about party-switchers. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are party switchers after election day. Will Steny Hoyer stay a Democrat if Nancy Pelosi backs John Murtha in his leadership race? Will Democrats in conservative districts - like Charlie Melancon in Louisiana and Jim Marshall in Georgia - stay Democrats? Will Henry Cuellar of Texas prove that his endorsement of George Bush was not a fluke, and become a Republican - as many Democrat critics have said he really is?

And what of Joe Lieberman, or Lincoln Chafee (if he survives)?

We'll learn more, as the world turns...

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Bush to Sign Border Fence Bill

Mickey has written some more about speculation that the President intends to veto HR 6061, the Secure Fence Act. Based on a lot of what the President has had to say, and even what some spokespeople have had to say, you can make a good case that he sounds like he's not committed to it.

However, it seems to me that after his comments at yesterday's press conference - where he did not challenge a reporter who assumed he would sign it - and particularly after Tony Snow's E-mail to the guys at Powerline - it's pretty clear that the President will sign the bill.

I think if you want to delve into this further, the question at this point is how the President will handle this. It's clear from his comments yesterday that he remains committed to comprehensive reform and some form of (*ahem*) earned legalization. Will he continue to stand proudly with what polls say is the overwhelming majority of Americans who favor this view? Will he sign the bill, but say it's a disappointment, and only a marginal improvement from the status quo (kind of like Clinton did when he signed the Defense of Marriage Act)? Will he do so without fanfare, allowing Members of Congress to tout the achievement?

Or will the President identify himself with the Republican base, which likes this bill and will actually decide this election?

Also, while Mickey has been painstakingly reading tea leaves like an old-line Sovietologist going over May Day photos, I don't think he's patted himself on the back where he proved prescient. To wit, where are all the stories about how immigration has torn the GOP apart, and is threatening their standing in many key races? I've actually heard a few reporters describe this as a strong issue for the GOP - something that few were predicting just a few months ago.

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Fence Bill Cleared for White House

According to Thomas, the Secure Fence Act has been cleared for the White House (as of September 29).

And by the way, in his press conference this morning, the President said he will sign the bill.

Update: The White House posted the transcript of the President's press conference this morning. He sure doesn't seem excited about HR 6061, but I don't see any way he can veto it, given that he clearly implicates he's going to sign it. But it sure is funny that he doesn't say something like 'I'm looking forward to signing this bill!'

Anyway, the relevant portion of the transcript:

Q Thank you. On a different topic. You've said you will sign the border fence bill to build 700 miles of fence along the U.S. border, but DHS has said it prefers a virtual fence of sensors and cameras rather than an actual wall. Are you committed to building the 700 miles of fence, actual fencing?

THE PRESIDENT: Yes, we're going to do both, Joe. We're just going to make sure that we build it in a spot where it works. I don't -- DHS said they want a virtual wall. I don't believe that's the only thing they've said. I think you might have truncated their statement, because we're actually building fence, and we're building double fence in particular -- in areas where there is a high vulnerability for people being able to sneak in.

You can't fence the entire border, but what you can do is you can use a combination of fencing and technology to make it easier for the Border Patrol to enforce our border. I happen to believe, however, that in order to make sure the border is fully secure, we need a guest worker program, so people aren't sneaking in in the first place.

And so I look forward to not only implementing that which Congress has funded, in a way that says to folks, the American people, we'll enforce our border, but I'm going to continue to campaign and work for a comprehensive bill so that whatever we do in terms of equipment and manpower works better. If somebody is not trying to sneak in to work, in other words, coming through in a way where they're showing a temporary worker pass, where they're not using coyotes to smuggle across, where they're not going through tunnels, it's going to make it much easier for us to do our job, Joe, and that's enforce the border.

And so my judgment is, if the people want this country secure, we've got to do -- have a smart border, which we're in the process of developing now. It's a combination of fencing and technologies -- UAVs, sensors. I don't know if you've ever been down there, but it's a pretty vast part of country down there. It's hard to enforce that border. You've got some rugged country; you've got stretches of territory where you don't even know where the border is. You've got urban areas, like El Paso, or Southern California, where people have been able to sneak in by use of urban corridors. And so, therefore, fencing makes sense there.

I went down to Arizona, the Arizona sector, and saw a place where there's literally neighborhoods abutting the border, and people come -- a hundred of them would rush across the border into a little subdivision, and the Border Patrol would catch two or three, and 97 would get in. And they're asking, what are you going to provide to help us do our job? And in this case, those who are in charge of coming up with the proper strategy to enforce the border said, we need double fencing with space, so that the Border Patrol can use that fencing as leverage against people rushing into the country.

And my only point to you is that the strategy to develop this border requires different assets based on the conditions -- based upon what the terrain looks like. And that's what we're doing.

But I repeat to you, when you've got a situation where people are sneaking in to do jobs Americans aren't doing, it's also going to keep a strain on the border. And so, therefore, a temporary worker plan, to me, makes sense, and it's a much more humane program -- approach, by the way. It will certainly help stamp out all these illegal characters that are exploiting human beings. You know, these coyotes that stuff people in the back of 18-wheelers for money is just -- that's not in character with how this nation works. And I think we ought to -- I think a good program that helps us enforce our border also will see to it that people are treated more humanely.

Thank you for your interest.

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Madeline Albright - Friend to Terrorists

I was waiting until this video was available somewhere other than YouTube. It's pretty funny; check it out.

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Plane Crashes into Belaire Building in NYC

According to CNN, this was a twin-engine, fixed-wing aircraft. (BTW, looks like there are some units available, and it seems like it must have a great view of the East River).

It sounds like an accident and there is no indication that this is a terrorist incident. Nevertheless, it is reported that fighter aircraft are being scrambled over a number of US cities, to offer protection just in case.

Wizbang is doing a good job of keeping updated on the incident. Or follow it on New York's WABC television.

Not to jump to the political angle, but between Foley, North Korea, and events like this, you can see why the election this year is so volatile. If (God forbid) this were an act of terrorism, it would likely have some effect on how people view the election.

Update: It's been widely reported that Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle was killed in this accident. According to his bio on the Yankees website, Lidle is married with a six-year old son. Condolences to his wife and son obviously; our prayers are with them.

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The Hail Mary Play

It's by no means certain at this point that the Democrats will gain control of the House of Representatives in 27 days, but you certainly have to like their chances. Looking at recent polling, I think you can identify 8-10 House seats that are very likely Democratic takeovers. And given the inability of the GOP to focus debate and discussion on 'their issues' (national security, taxes, immigration), and the possibility that the media will continue to focus on the Foley mess, you can't be particularly optimistic of a change in fortune. All-in-all, I suspect that the Democrats are closer to a 25 seat gain than they are a 15 seat gain.

Which begs the question: what can the GOP do to change the dynamic?

I have a solution: one of those ideas that's too inventive and brilliant ever to be tried. Four words: House Speaker Rudy Giuliani.

Now before you laugh me out of the room, hear me out. As Roll Call explained yesterday, if Dennis Hastert vacates the speakership, the Speaker pro tempore will be the first person named on the list of successors he has placed in the trust of the House Clerk. Here is the relevant House rule:

3) (a) In the case of a vacancy in the office of Speaker, the next Member on the list described in subdivision (b) shall act as Speaker pro tempore until the election of Speaker or a Speaker pro tempore. Pending such election the Member acting as Speaker pro tempore may exercise such authorities of the Office of Speaker as may be necessary and appropriate to that end.

(b) As soon as practicable after his election and whenever he deems appropriate thereafter, the Speaker shall deliver to the Clerk a list of Members in the order in which each shall act as Speaker pro tempore under subdivision (a).

(c) For purposes of subdivision (a), a vacancy in the office of Speaker may exist by reason of the physical inability of the Speaker to discharge the duties of the office.

Since Hastert can change the names on the list any time he wishes, why doesn't he name Giuliani as his successor, and then vacate the office? Speaker pro tempore Giuliani would serve until the House met again to name a successor - some time after the election.

The only glitch here is that House rules specify that the successor shall be a Member [of the House], but of course, the Constitution does not require that ("The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker..."). It's probably an oversight in the drafting of the rule. I doubt it matters much anyway.

Speaker Giuliani could promise to stand for election as Speaker again in the new Congress. He'd be a better public figure than Hastert as the face of the Congressional GOP. People would be more likely to trust him to root out corruption in Congress (although that's not a slam dunk). And he'd be a strong and credible figure on terrorism and national security. It's a win-win-win!

And what would Giuliani get? Well, a few years as Speaker would give him a chance to build up chits for a Presidential run. He could take credit for legislative accomplishments in the House on his watch, and demonstrate to wary social conservatives that given a position of responsiblity, he would not use it to advance a liberal agenda on gay rights or abortion.

What do you think?

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Damn That Global Warming!

Responsible for Katrina last year, and undoubtedly responsible for the warm winter we're expecting this year! Storms, snows, warm fronts, and record crops - what can't global warming do - apart from get Al Gore elected President, that is...

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Hastert's Successor Already Selected

Update: Can anyone tell me why so many people are searching 'Hasterts Successor?'

Roll Call (subscription required) points out that if Dennis Hastert resigns his speakership, his succesor has already been selected. Purusant to a House rule change designed to ensure continuity in Congress, Hastert has already selected him (or her):

Next Speaker? Check the List
October 10, 2006
By Susan Davis,
Roll Call Staff

While the current page scandal and the possibility of a change in House control on Election Day have prompted plenty of speculation about who the next Speaker will be, the real answer might just be locked away in a safe in the office of the House Clerk.

Inside that vault is a list of Members — known only to a handful of people — who would take over the Speaker’s post in the case of an immediate vacancy.

First written into House rules in the 108th Congress during the continuity of Congress reforms necessitated by the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the line of succession provision could be triggered for the first time if Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) — under fire from the still-unfolding scandal surrounding former Rep. Mark Foley’s (R-Fla.) interaction with House pages — took the unlikely step of resigning his office before the start of the next session.

If Hastert left the Speaker’s office immediately, for whatever reason, the first Member on the list — which was written by Hastert himself — would be elevated to Speaker Pro Tem and could act with all of the constitutional authority vested in the office, until the Congress could convene to duly elect a Speaker by the full House.

After weathering a scathing week of criticism piled on him and his top aides over how Republican leaders handled their response to a 2005 e-mail exchange between a former House page and Foley, Hastert appears secure to hold onto his office at least through the end of the 109th Congress...

If Hastert were forced out before the elections, the vacancy would trigger the succession provision and a Member, who is not known to the public, would be elevated to the office. Sources, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the topic, said it was unlikely the House would reconvene before Nov. 7 and a Speaker Pro Tem could preside over the House because the chamber is in recess until Nov. 13.

Presumably, a new Speaker would be determined by the Republican Conference if the GOP retains the majority on Nov. 15, when leadership elections are scheduled, and would be duly elected by the full House on the first day of the new session in January...

Even if Republicans retain the majority, it remains to be seen if Hastert can hold on to the office. The Speaker must be elected by a majority of the full House, and it would take only a handful of GOP Members in a tightly divided House to end his tenure if they threaten to oppose him on the floor. There is no clear consensus candidate for Speaker in that scenario at this point. If Democrats win a majority of seats, Hastert is expected to retire, and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) would be Speaker.

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Shocking News: Democrats Sat on Foley Messages

ABC news suggested that the Foley E-mails and messages were leaked by Republicans, but it's becoming increasingly clear that it was Democrats who sat on this information for months and leaked it at a politically-opportune time.

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Am I the Only One Who Sees a Problem?

So North Korea's detonation of a nuclear weapon has led some to contemplate hopefully the possibility that Japan will now develop nuclear weapons, and allow the formation of a real military.

Do we really want to trust nuclear weapons to the people developing the FemBot?

The strange thing is they make such bloody good cameras...

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Menendez Caught in Dirty Trick

New York's CBS news reports that Bob Menendez and his campaign set up his challenger Tom Kean, and recorded the incident to post on YouTube. It's worth a look.

It's looking as if the Kean-Menendez race might be one of the few bright spots for the GOP on election day.

Hat Tip: Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

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Latin America: Blunting the Leftist Surge

A few months ago, it was all the rage to talk about the surge of leftism in the Americas, and to fret about Mexico electing a leftist to top things off. Well, that leftist tide has not entirely subsided, but Mexico elected a conservative, and it's starting to seem possible that Brazil might as well.

What are the chances that Lula will be defeated by Alckmin in the upcoming runoff? The Brazilian real is rising as investors speculate on a Lula defeat.

If the GOP loses Congress and Bush is forced to focus even more on foreign policy than he does right now, then a win by Alckmin in Brazil would set the stage for more vigorous diplomacy in our own hemishpere.

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GOP Seeks to Frame the Debate

It's widely accepted that the best way to win is to make sure that voters are focused on the issues where you have the advantage. So debates about Iraq and seduction of pages don't really help GOP candidates, while discussions of the economy, the War on Terror, and immigration all (apparently) help the GOP. Captain Ed notes that the White House will try to shift attention to some of those GOP issues in the last days before election day this year.

Of course, the GOP has gotten no credit for the strong economy, and things have turned so bad that recent polls show the public puts more faith in Democrats than the GOP to handle the War on Terror. One fears that the White House may be spitting into the wind on this one.

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Eskimos Flip Chavez the Bird

A good example of the American spirit. I hope that some enterprising heating oil company rewards these villages for standing on principle:

Alaska villages reject Venezuela oil
By JEANNETTE J. LEE, Associated Press Writer

In Alaska's native villages, the punishing winter cold is already coming through the walls of the lightly insulated plywood homes, many of the villagers are desperately poor, and heating-oil prices are among the highest in the nation.

And yet a few villages are refusing free heating oil from Venezuela, on the patriotic principle that no foreigner has the right to call their president "the devil."

The heating oil is being offered by the petroleum company controlled by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, President Bush's nemesis. While scores of Alaska's Eskimo and Indian villages say they have no choice but to accept, others would rather suffer.

"As a citizen of this country, you can have your own opinion of our president and our country. But I don't want a foreigner coming in here and bashing us," said Justine Gunderson, administrator for the tribal council in the Aleut village of Nelson Lagoon. "Even though we're in economically dire straits, it was the right choice to make."

Nelson Lagoon residents pay more than $5 a gallon for oil — or at least $300 a month per household — to heat their homes along the wind-swept coast of the Bering Sea, where temperatures can dip to minus-15. About one-quarter of the 70 villagers are looking for work, in part because Alaska's salmon fishing industry has been hit hard by competition from fish farms.

The donation to Alaska's native villages has focused attention on the rampant poverty and high fuel prices in a state that is otherwise awash in oil — and oil profits. In 2005, 86 percent of the Alaska's general fund, or $2.8 billion, came from oil from the North Slope.

The Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, a native nonprofit organization that would have handled the heating oil donation on behalf of 291 households in Nelson Lagoon, Atka, St. Paul and St. George, rejected the offer because of the insults Chavez has hurled at Bush.

Chavez called Bush "the devil" in a speech to the United Nations last month. He has also called the president a terrorist and denounced the war in Iraq.

Dimitri Philemonof, president and chief executive of the association, said accepting the aid would be "compromising ourselves." "I think we have some duty to our country, and I think it's loyalty," he said.

Over the past two years, Citgo, the Venezuelan government's Texas-based oil subsidiary, has given millions of gallons of discounted heating oil to the poor in several states and cities — including New York, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine — in what is widely seen as an effort by Chavez to embarrass and irritate the U.S. government and make himself look good.

Maine Gov. John Baldacci, who approved an agreement last winter to buy discounted oil, said he had no plans this year to seek a similar arrangement. In Boston, a City Council member wants a landmark Citgo sign near Fenway Park taken down and replaced with an American flag. In Florida, a lawmaker asked the state to cancel Citgo's exclusive contract to sell fuel at turnpike service stations.

About 150 native villages in Alaska have accepted money for heating oil from Citgo. The oil company does not operate in Alaska, so instead of sending oil, it is donating about $5.3 million to native nonprofit organizations to buy 100 gallons this winter for each of more than 12,000 households...

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The Plot Thickens

I note that Mickey, Glenn, and Captain Ed have been expressing concern about the intent of the President and Congressional leadership toward the Secure Fence Act. Well, it seems that there's good news and bad news for fence advocates.

First the good news: I do not believe the President is approaching any pocket veto deadline for the fence legislation. The bad news is, it does not appear to have been sent to him for signature.

The Congress maintains a very useful online database of legislation known as Thomas. If you go to Thomas and look at the history of a bill that has been signed into law, you will see these lines at the end:

Cleared for White House.
Presented to President.

Well, go to Thomas, and look up HR 6061, the Secure Fence Act of 2006. If you click on 'Bill Summary and Status,' and then look at 'All Congressional Actions,' the last action you will see on the legislation is this:

Passed Senate without amendment by Yea-Nay Vote. 80 - 19. Record Vote Number: 262.

It's possible that this has simply not been updated, but I've always found Thomas to be accurate within a business day or so. I note that it records bills signed into law as recently as October 5, at least.

If the legislation has not been cleared for the White House and presented to the President, it can't be subject to a pocket veto. Of course, it can't be signed into law either. Congress does not have to be in session for legislation to be cleared for the White House and presented to the President, as long as the two Houses have previously approved such actions (CRS lays that out here). I don't know if that happened in this case, but it sounds to me like the sort of thing that's approved as a matter of routine.

Is the plan to wait until closer before the election, so the signing will be more dramatic? Or is it never to send it to the President, so no veto is reported? If the GOP in Washington knows what's good for them, the truth is closer to option 'A.' Furthermore, I suspect that if the answer were 'B,' guys like Tom Tancredo and JD Hayworth would be screaming bloody murder...

Update: The Corner reports that Patrick Ruffini of the RNC says that the President will sign the bill. Of course, Patrick could E-mail me, too! After all, I was defending the GOP!

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