Mexico Votes Sunday

I expect this will be my last post on the Mexican Presidential election Sunday. By law, campaigning and polling has already stopped. The polls show it neck-and-neck, so I'll stick with my prediction that Felipe Calderon pulls it out over AMLO. This is for several reasons.

First, as I've noted before, Mexican voters are regarded as pretty conservative, and so they're probably unlikely to vote for 'change' again, after having voted for change in 2000.

Second, I think Michael Barone is probably right, that some Madrazo voters are likely to change to Calderon on the final weekend, out of concern that AMLO might win.

Third, there are late economic motivations to vote PAN. Specifically, Mexican voters are reading in the news that the peso is declining due to fears of an AMLO win, and also that the Mexican economy is finally growing steadily.

Spend some time at Ceci Connolly's blog at the Washington Post if you're interested, including this post about IFE's attempts to ensure the integrity of the vote.

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