Thursday, July 20, 2006

Lieberman Trails in Latest Poll

Well, Quinnpipiac's latest poll of the Connecticut Democratic Senate primary confirms what some have suspected: Lieberman now trails among likely Democratic primary voters.

Now first the caveat: Mystery Pollster argues correctly that it's very difficult to identify likely Connecticut primary voters. That said, Lieberman's precipitous fall among those that Quinnipiac views as likely voters is a sure sign of major trouble. Combined with the reports of defection and disarray in the Lieberman camp, you have to think that Joe is in trouble.

The question now is, will Joe quit the Democratic primary and concentrate on an Independent run, as Dick Morris advised. I think that the only reason to compete in the Democratic primary at this point is so that he can continue to describe himself as a Democrat. If he drops the bid, I think it gives the opposition more credibility to say that he had quit the party. That could count for something.

On the other hand, defeating Lieberman might give Lamont more of a boost than scaring him out of the primary race.

Either way, expect this to set off another round of speculation: including a reprise of the 'Lieberman to run as a Republican' rumor in the item I linked above.

The primary is August 8.

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