Democrats' Iraq Supplemental Won't Pass the House

Jim Moran will vote against the Democrats' Iraq supplemental bill in committee because it won't bar the President from attacking Iran. That's not a huge surprise; we know Jim Moran prickles at anything that is seen as supportive of Israel.

Nine other liberal Democrats have said that they will vote against it because it does not do enough to end the war.

Dan Boren has said he will vote against any legislation that sets a firm deadline for the troops to leave - as this measure does. His vote against will give cover to other Blue Dogs who may be inclined to vote against - a list which supposedly includes about 15 more Democrats.

Democrats have only 15 votes to spare, if they receive no Republican votes. And the Hill article linked above notes that very few of the 17 Republicans who supported the Democrats' non-binding Iraq resolution will be with them on this measure. If a number of Blue Dogs vote against the bill, it will be easier to hold Republican ranks, also.

As things stand now, this bill won't pass the House. And if it becomes clear that it won't, leadership might decide to cancel the markup tomorrow in the House Appropriations Committee, rather than force members to take painful votes that will earn enemies. If the Democratic leadership changes course - and decides to whip the vote, or tweak the bill, they might find a formula for passage - but not as things stand now.

Alternately, they might decide that it is important to demonstrate to liberal anti-war groups that they don't have the votes to end the war. They may 'fight the good fight' and fail, and come back with something the President can sign.

The latter is where I'll bet my money.