North Korea Situation Growing More Serious

Japan is reportedly considering a pre-emptive strike:

"If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack ... there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion," Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said.

...A Defense Agency spokeswoman, however, said Japan has no attacking weapons such as ballistic missiles that could reach North Korea. Its forces only have ground-to-air missiles and ground-to-vessel missiles, she said on condition of anonymity due to official policy.

Does this mean that Japan would consider a strike with aircraft? Presumably their military includes appropriate hardware. Meanwhile, the Chinese response may be overtaken by events:

China and Russia, both nations with veto power on the council, have voiced opposition to the measure. Kyodo News agency reported Monday, citing unnamed Chinese diplomatic sources, that China may use its veto on the Security Council to block the resolution.

Wow. They might veto the resolution. Do you sense that there's a limit to the usefulness of the United Nations? Meanwhile, a Chinese delegation is arriving in Pyongyang:

Meanwhile, a Chinese delegation including the country's top nuclear envoy — Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei — arrived in North Korea on Monday, officially to attend celebrations marking the 45th anniversary of a friendship treaty between the North and China.

But can it really be true that China can't stop North Korea from taking such dangerous actions? As I noted last week, influential figures in China have told Business Week that they can't control Kim Jong Il. And now the Assistant Secretary of State says the same:

Still, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill questioned just how influential Beijing was with the enigmatic regime.

"I must say the issue of China's influence on DPRK is one that concerns us," Hill told reporters in Tokyo. "China said to the DPRK, 'Don't fire those missiles,' but the DPRK fired them. So I think everybody, especially the Chinese, are a little bit worried about it."

If this is true, then this can't situation can't go on much longer. Neither the US, nor the Chinese or Japanese, nor the South Koreans can accept a renegade regime that can't even be controlled by their main sponsor in Beijing. If North Korea will take such provocative actions in defiance of China, can military action against them be far off?

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Lieberman's Good Week

Joe Lieberman has taken a lot of flak about the poor campaign he's run against Ned Lamont so far, and in particular for that terrible Weicker/bear ad. But it's clear that for now at least, he's doing well. Based on one face-to-face with Lamont and some new advertising, he's completely changed the debate. A week ago the questions were: is Joe a real Democrat; will he quit the Democratic primary entirely; and, will any Senate Democrats back his candidacy? Now they are, why are so many Senators campaigning for him, and is he attacking Lamont either unfairly or too hard?

If you are known for being soft spoken and mellow like Joe Lieberman, this is probably about the best change you could have hoped for. He has gone from defense to offense.

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Stupid Idea Gains Momentum

The Associated Press reports that the idea of providing reparations to the descendants of slaves in the US is gaining legitimacy:

Slavery reparations gaining momentum
By ERIN TEXEIRA, AP National Writer

Advocates who say black Americans should be compensated for slavery and its Jim Crow aftermath are quietly chalking up victories and gaining momentum.

Fueled by the work of scholars and lawyers, their campaign has morphed in recent years from a fringe-group rallying cry into sophisticated, mainstream movement. Most recently, a pair of churches apologized for their part in the slave trade, and one is studying ways to repay black church members.

The overall issue is hardly settled, even among black Americans: Some say that focusing on slavery shouldn't be a top priority or that it doesn't make sense to compensate people generations after a historical wrong.

Yet reparations efforts have led a number of cities and states to approve measures that force businesses to publicize their historical ties to slavery. Several reparations court cases are in progress, and international human rights officials are increasingly spotlighting the issue.

Let's cut to the chase, so we can see how serious this is. I mean, the last big sign that this was gaining momentum was that John Conyers supported it. That's like saying that a movie's strongest recommendation was that it was directed by Ed Wood - it's not really the sort of thing that encourages you. But let's ask: what victories are quietly being chalked up?

The most recent victories for reparations advocates came in June, when the Moravian Church and the Episcopal Church both apologized for owning slaves and promised to battle current racism. The Episcopalians also launched a national, yearslong probe into church slavery links and into whether the church should compensate black members. A white church member, Katrina Browne, also screened a documentary focusing on white culpability at the denomination's national assembly.

The Episcopalians debated slavery and reparations for years before reaching an agreement, said Jayne Oasin, social justice officer for the denomination, who will oversee its work on the issue.

Historically, slavery was an uncomfortable topic for the church. Some Episcopal bishops owned slaves — and the Bible was used to justify the practice, Oasin said.

But if we accept the idea of compensating people today for inujstices suffered by ancestors, why stop with simply blacks in the United States? I mean, some of the blacks enslaved in the US had ancestors who enslaved other blacks in Africa. Why should they be credited for their suffering, but not debited for the suffering they dealt out? According to Free the Slaves, slavery goes back almost 9,000 years. If justice demands that we compensate the ancestors of slaves for past suffering, surely it's not a unique claim of American blacks. Equity would demand that we do our best to identify the ancestors of slaves, and the ancestors of slaveholders, and ensure that reparations are rendered.

I mean, I'm sure we can't compensate everyone from 9,000 years ago, but perhaps if we just try to limit ourselves to the last few centuries. Belgium could compensate the people of Zaire for forced labor in rubber production. The British could compensate Peruvians, Malayans, and the people of Hong Kong and Sierra Leone. The Japanese could at last compensate the Chinese for enslaving people during World War II. The Germans could compensate Russians, Poles, Magyars, Romanians, and others for similar offenses. And that's just a brief listing from the past century. As we go back into the 1900s, 1800s, and 1700s, I'm sure we can find a lot more examples.

But I think it would be wrong to stop there. I would argue that enslaving a person is only different from other forms of opression in degree - not in kind. Is it worse to enslave a person - in a circumstance where you have an interest in preserving the slave's life - or to recklessly or negligently kill someone, because that person's life holds no value for you? If we compenate the ancestors of slaves, how can we not in good conscience compensate the Irish for the potato famine, or the Indians for the caste system allowed during British rule, or the Chinese for the Rape of Nanking, or the Poles for the partitions by Germany and Russia that deprived them of their country and identity, or the Greeks for the opression they suffered under Ottoman Rule, or the indigenous peoples of Latin America for their treatment at the hands of the Europeans during the colonial period, or the aborigines, or the native peoples of Hawaii... the list is probably endless.

Do you realize how much good we can do? How many can be compensated, and how many punished? This will probably require a strong international organization to collect the tales of opression, deprivation, and enslavement, attach monetary values to them, compute a fair interest rate, and start handing out assessments.

It's actually quite shocking that advocates of reparations for black slaves in the US have stopped at that. They are clearly people of high moral character; why would they limit the dispensing of justice to this one, limited instance? Don't you see how much fairer things will be?

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President Lieberman

Jonah Goldberg makes an excellent point about Florida, Gore, and Connecticut.

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Dionne Still Angry about 2000

Well, that's understating it. He seems to be unhappy with the American political system, generally. And he uses Mexico's challenging Presidential election to make his silly points. First off, he doesn't like the electoral college, and he says Mexico would be roundly mocked if they had a system such as an electoral college, that awarded disproportionate power to small Mexican states:

Mexicans have one thing going for them: There is no question under Mexican law that the winner of the popular vote will be the winner of the election.

Imagine the global outcry if Mexico chose its president indirectly through some sort of electoral college that gave advantage to smaller states over bigger ones and permitted the loser of the popular vote to become president. The world would be merciless in deriding Mexico as a backward place living under undemocratic laws written in the early 19th century. Mexicans can be proud that this won't happen.

Uh-huh. And what if Mexico were like, oh, I don't know - Europe - with a number of political entities that have to be sold on coming together in a larger entity (the European Union)? And what if there were bartering to convince some to join? That would at least be an accurate comparison to the creation of the US system.

Or is EJ saying that we should have amended the Constitution, because a system that allows the popular vote loser to be elected 3% of the time, just to protect the influence of small states, is an outrage! Perhaps he wants amendments to be approved more easily, so we could have Presidential election by popular vote, and a flag protection amendment, and a federal prohibition on same-sex marriage. Is that what EJ wants?

Dionne continues:

But there are potential problems. López Obrador has had questions about the results in the state of Tabasco. Mr. Calderón and Mr. López Obrador, please, please make sure that you don't have some close relative in charge of things down there.

How would it look if the governor of the state was your own brother? What would people think if the top official in charge of elections was your sibling's partisan ally who made every key decision in your favor?

Yes EJ, it would obviously be better if the US had a system where Jeb Bush was forced to resign the moment his brother ran for President. And when Bobby Kennedy became Attorney General, JFK would have had to retire. And family members of elected officials would be required to change their names when they seek elective office, so that they wouldn't derive unfair benefits from the popularity of the name. What a stupid system the US has! Probably someone like EJ Dionne should choose who can run for office and who can't.

Dionne also decides to rewrite the history of the 2000 election to fit his flawed analogies:

Another thing: Whichever one of you is ahead at any given point, please don't ask that the counting be stopped abruptly just because you happen to hold the lead. Don't have some high-class lawyer with a name like Jaime A. Panadero III come out and say things like, "I don't believe that the people of Mexico want this national election turned over to lawyers and court contests" -- and then have the very same lawyer direct other lawyers to go to court to stop any further counts.

Yes EJ, we know you think that if there is a count, and a legal recount, and a certified election, that it's wrong to call for an end to endless counting. And let's say that the if you do call for an end to the counting, it's only because you are ahead. If George Bush's team called for an end to the recounts, it's because Bush was ahead. And when John Thune lost to Tim Johnson, and John Ashcroft lost to the late Mel Carnahan, and they didn't fight the results, it was because they were happy they lost - not because they actually believed in a principle.

I'm not saying that the US system is flawless; I'm not even saying I disagree with EJ on some of these points. I'm just saying that he doesn't seem to ackowledge that every change he wants comes with a downside. He just seems to want to wave a magic wand to produce the outcomes he desires.

I'll be kind: that's pretty shortsighted.

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Economy Chugging Along...

Glenn covers it, here.

Of course, Glenn is wrong. He fails to state whether the economy is overheating, prompting inflationary fears, or whether it is faltering, and we face the prospect of stagnation. Under the rules of the modern media, he must pick one of those storylines.

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Who to Believe?

Who to believe about the number of protestors in Mexico City today in support of AMLO? You could go with the Associated Press, which says more than 100,000, or you could go with the 280,000 estimate of the Mexico City police, who were run for years by AMLO and are now run by his chosen successor.

AMLO has also requested that his supporters turn the election into a circus... excuse me, I mean 'expand their peaceful protests,' by marching to the capital to arrive on July 16. And AMLO is too cute by half - asking his supporters not to block highways on the way, and asking them to continue to protest peacefully:

Lopez Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor, has asked protesters to be peaceful and law-abiding, but also said the government would be responsible for any flare-up of anger because officials had rejected his demand for a manual recount.

So AMLO can reject meetings with Calderon, and call for all manner of protest, but it's the Federal Elections Commission's fault if his protests lead to violence? Give me a break!

...In a meeting with foreign correspondents, Lopez Obrador said there were more irregularities in the balloting than under the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico until it was ousted by President Vicente Fox in 2000.

Calderon belongs to Fox's conservative National Action Party

"The National Action Party learned from the fraudulent practices of the PRI and it exceeded them," Lopez Obrador said.

Well, looks like President Calderon will have 6 years to try to clean up their act.

Update: 'Pandaluz' (a cute name, in Spanish), features a compilation video of AMLO before the election, promising to accept a loss, promising to accept a loss by a miniscule margin, promising to accept the finding of the IFE, and promising not to call for protests. It also features some hemming and hawing after the election when AMLO is reminded of those promises.

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Giuliani Running for President

According to Novak.

CQ does a good job of outlining the problems of Giuliani winning the primary. Ed suggests that McCain would probably beat Giuliani in a primary. Of course, this assumes that primary voters want an 'electable' candidate, rather than someone they like and feel comfortable with (in which case George Allen is frequently mentioned as a frontrunner).

But I am starting to think that regardless of Giuliani's obvious problems on gay rights, gun control, and abortion, that he may be more likely to secure the Republican nomination than would be McCain - so much do so many rock-ribbed conservatives not care for McCain on free speech, immigration, and the 11th commandment.

I think that to primary voters, McCain feels like a loose-cannoned crusader. You never know what issue will become the most important to him at a given moment, and what actions he may take on it. He swings from being with conservatives on spending to against them on free speech; with them on abortion to against them on immigration. They will never really trust him.

Strangely enough, I suspect that most conservative Republicans will regard Giuliani as more of a 'straight talker.'

North Korea Threatens Nuclear War

Why does China put up with this?

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More Men and Women Opting Not to Work

The Washington Post carries a story about a new study that shows that participation by women in the labor force peaked a few years ago and is now on the decline. Commentators have talked about how more women are now choosing to stay home and care for kids again. But the article makes clear that that's not accurate. Rather, people's perception of the story seems skewed skewed by the mindset that men and women ought to behave the same.

First off, the chart accompanying the article shows that male labor force participation has been on the decline since 1948 - albeit it started at a much higher rate than the participation of women.

Second, the article note that:

Contrary to popular theory, Labor Department data do not show a rising proportion of women dropping out of the workforce to spend time with their families. Indeed, the participation rate has fallen since 2000 for both women with children and women without children.

While nonworking women are still much more likely than men to cite "home responsibilities" as their reason for not holding or seeking a job, that's actually less true now than it was in the past. The share of women aged 25 to 54, considered to be in their "prime" working years, who gave that reason for not seeking employment has shrunk for more than a decade. The share of men citing that reason has edged up over the same period, according to a Labor Department analysis of census survey figures from 1990 to 2003.

The female participation rate peaked below the men's, though, because women still take out more time to care for children and other relatives, analysts say and the data show.

So this study bears great news, as I see it. More men and women are able to afford not to work. In fact, there's not much negative news in this story, as far as I can tell. There's this sad datum:

Among nonworking adults aged 25 to 54, a growing share of women said they were not holding or seeking a job because of disability or illness, according to the survey data. A shrinking share of comparable men cited those reasons.

And there's the ant at the picnic:

Some analysts say the labor force participation rate also reflects the lingering effects of the last economic downturn and that it would have rebounded by now if job growth were stronger. The fact that so many people remain out of the workforce reflects "weak labor demand rather than choice," said Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a think tank focused on labor issues.

Ah yes, if only the unemployment rate were to drop from 4.6% to 2.5%, lots more people would be working! And the only cost would be the worst inflation since Jimmy Carter!

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Most Moving Forward in Mexico

Mexico City's El Universal reports this morning that Felipe Calderon has received calls of congratulations from the United States, Spain, and Canada. Other governments have extended congratulations as well.

It looks like AMLO is one of few who can't read the handwriting on the wall. Even the leader of the PRD contingent in the Congress says Calderon 'no es el presidente electo de México hasta que el Tribunal lo ratifique y estamos seguros de que los magistrados revisarán las impugnaciones que le darán el triunfo a López Obrador.' This translates loosely as 'Calderon isn't the President-elect of Mexico until the judicial tribunal ratifies it and we are sure that the magistrates will review the complaints that AMLO refers to them.' If I were AMLO, I would have been looking for a stronger vote of confidence.

AMLO's team says that they are not looking to anull the results of the election, and that AMLO is not willing to accept the invitation of Calderon to meet. The campaign spokesman is rather dismissive on this point, asking 'why do they want to invite AMLO to work with them if he's a danger to Mexico?'

Madrazo on the other hand, will meet with Calderon. But given the response of his party to the spanking he just led them to, he may be planning on begging Calderon for a job.

In a clear demonstration that things are moving forward, the lead headline on El Universal is 'Legislative Pacts will Be Complicated,' noting that the legislature will be divided into three roughly equal party blocs. The PAN will hold 206 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 52 in the Senate. The PRD will have 160 in the Chamber and 36 in the Senate. The PRI was saved by the seats it added through proportional representation, so it will have 121 in the Chamber, and 39 in the Senate - a significant improvement from the picture painted by El Universal a few days ago.

This will be very interesting to watch. I think that Felipe Calderon will make every effort to work with the PRI - which will be looking for some way to establish relevancy, and is at this point somewhat fractured. I suspect he will have more success with the PRI than with the PRD, given that the PRD will soon be thinking about the midterms in 2009 and the next Presidential election in 2012.

And get ready for the demonstrations in Mexico City today on behalf of AMLO, which should be quie a spectacle, given that Mexico City is his base, and that he was succeeded as Mayor by his hand-picked successor. Everything will be set for a show that makes it look like Mexico is torn. But when you watch AMLO and his fans screaming for justice, remember the words of Macbeth.

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Colleagues May Press Ney to Step Down

It won't take an indictment to do it, either. Ney is an underdog, in what would otherwise be a safe GOP seat. With Republicans now looking likely to lose DeLay's seat, there will be pressure for Ney to step down, regardless of whether he's indicted.

Roll Call has said that Ney must withdraw by August 19 to be replaced by another Republican on the ballot:

Republicans may press Ney to step down if indicted
Sources on Capitol Hill say GOP pressure will grow for Rep. Robert Ney to step down if he is indicted before the November congressional elections.

Ney, an Ohio Republican, insists he will push on regardless of what action the Justice Department might take in its investigation of his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. But Republican staffers on the hill worry that the GOP cannot afford to lose Ney's seat in eastern Ohio as Democrats press to take control of the House.

The Justice Department has stepped up its investigation of Ney, who aided Abramoff and accepted campaign donations, a golfing trip to Scotland, and other favors from the lobbyist. Last week, Roll Call newspaper reported that one of his aides had been subpoenaed by a grand jury, and other aides are also likely to be subpoenaed...

Previously:

Waiting for Ney
Bob Ney 'What If'

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Tom DeLay's New Campaign Poster

Forgive the terrible photoshop - it's my first try. But you get the idea.

Editor's Note: This works for the 'Carnahan Strategy,' as well!

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Mexico Prepares for a Rough Stretch

It looks like AMLO is committed to creating as much disruption as possible between now and the time that Felipe Calderon is officially certified as the President-elect of Mexico. Mary Anastasia O'Grady of the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), confirms what Mark in Mexico stated the other day about AMLO's surprising lead through much of the vote count:

I didn't see any reason for Mr. Calderón to be lying about this and independent observers confirmed it too. But at 9 on Wednesday evening, with 81% of the country's polling stations reporting, Mr. López Obrador had a lead of two percentage points and my phone started to ring. Mexicans were beginning to wonder about the preliminary count on Sunday that showed the PAN victorious. The only places I found total calm were at the PAN campaign headquarters and among electoral wonks who assured me that Sunday tallies would hold and that time would prove the Calderón victory.

The problem, as it finally emerged, was in the flow of polling-station reports. What we had seen late on Wednesday evening were reports from this city and other PRD strongholds. Tally sheets from polling stations in heavily pro-PAN states were being held back.

It now seems that these delays, which were later confirmed, were not an accident. While it is true that many of the pro-PAN states lie to the west of the country, two hours behind the capital, even that doesn't account for the enormous distortions in reporting into the wee hours of Thursday. For example, at 1:30 a.m., when most states had either closed their books or reported more than 90% of polling station results, the heavily Panista states of Nuevo Leon, Guanajato, Baja California and Sonora still had less than 90% of their polling stations reporting. Word went out that PRD polling station officials in these states were dragging their feet in signing off on the tally sheets. The clear objective was to give Mexicans the impression that AMLO had secured a victory, only to have it pulled from him in the dark of the night.

She also notes that AMLO is getting ready to unleash mob activism, in the hopes of having the election annulled:

Mexico now has a president-elect. But AMLO, who came in second in both the Sunday count and the Wednesday recount, says that he will not accept the results. In a press conference yesterday, he announced that a "manipulation" of the results is "evident" and accused the independent Federal Electoral Institute of working in cahoots with Mr. Calderón. That speech, it seems clear, was not meant for the ears of election officials or even the electoral court but for his followers. AMLO appears intent on persuading them, as is his stock in trade, that they have once again been cheated by the system.

...Another concern is whether the PRD will gin up a violent reaction to this defeat. Mob disturbances have been an AMLO staple for most of his career. And while this time it could cost him dearly in this conservative nation, he may also see it as his last chance to salvage his hope to wear the presidential sash. Six years from now, the presidential aspirations of both the son of the legendary Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, who is a well-respected governor of Michoacan and the newly elected mayor of this city, could make another AMLO candidacy for the PRD a long shot.

Should Mr. López Obrador decide to put all his money on the slim chance he can prevail, his infamous modus operandi of mob activism during his early career in the southern state of Tabasco and later as the mayor of this city may give guidance about what Mexicans are in for. Indeed, he seems to have been training for this mission for some time.

Calderon is handling this situation well, so far. He has consistently called for adherence to the law, and he has said several times that he would welcome AMLO into his cabinet, probably to a social welfare position. Today it's reported that he's asked for a meeting with AMLO, to talk about how to move the country forward. He's asked the other parties to recommend their programs, so that he can go forward with a program 'that won't be my program but Mexico's program - a program of coalition government.' In return, he's asked for support from the other parties, so he'll have a Congressional majority to 'go forward with the reforms that Mexico needs.'

He also says that he has not yet spoken with President Fox, to forestall accusations of a conspiracy.

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Americans Driving Faster, Safer

A good read from the Wall Street Journal. Key paragraphs:

We now have 10 years of evidence proving that the only "assault" was on the sanctity of the truth. The nearby table shows that the death, injury and crash rates have fallen sharply since 1995. Per mile traveled, there were about 5,000 fewer deaths and almost one million fewer injuries in 2005 than in the mid-1990s. This is all the more remarkable given that a dozen years ago Americans lacked today's distraction of driving while also talking on their cell phones.

Of the 31 states that have raised their speed limits to more than 70 mph, 29 saw a decline in the death and injury rate and only two--the Dakotas--have seen fatalities increase. Two studies, by the National Motorists Association and by the Cato Institute, have compared crash data in states that raised their speed limits with those that didn't and found no increase in deaths in the higher speed states.

Jim Baxter, president of the National Motorists Association, says that by the early 1990s "compliance with the 55 mph law was only about 5%--in other words, about 95% of drivers were exceeding the speed limit." Now motorists can coast at these faster speeds without being on the constant lookout for radar guns, speed traps and state troopers. Americans have also arrived at their destinations sooner, worth an estimated $30 billion a year in time saved, according to the Cato study.

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Can't Make it to Pamplona?

Head to Dewey Beach, Delaware this weekend, for the 9th annual Running of the Bull.

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Reuters Downplays the Chavez Threat

With the increased focus on North Korea's missile program and the upcoming visit of Hugo Chavez to that country to (allegedly) discuss arms-for-oil, I thought I'd share a little more about Hugo Chavez. And you know what? Reuters doesn't want you to worry:

Iran and Venezuela team up as anti-U.S. "odd couple"
[That's right - like Felix and Oscar - Editor]
Fri Jul 7, 2006 11:03 AM ET
By Christian Oliver

TEHRAN (Reuters) - To deserve a statue in central Tehran, you normally need to be an 11th-century Persian poet. However, Venezuela's 19th-century independence leader Simon Bolivar surveys passers-by in Goftogou Park.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, wearing the chequered headscarf of the Basij volunteer Islamic militia, stressed the cordiality of Tehran-Caracas relations when he unveiled the statue of his hero on an icy November day in 2004.

Right-wing Venezuelan and U.S. media have attacked Chavez's growing ties with Tehran. In their most fanciful conspiracy theory, Iran is planning to ship nuclear warheads to Venezuela in a re-run of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.

So don't worry, folks. Chavez and nuclear weapons is a fanciful conspiracy theory!

In 2003, U.S. concerns that Arab money-launderers on the Venezuelan island of Margarita could help terrorists mushroomed into unsubstantiated charges that Iranian-backed Hizbollah fighters had set up training camps there.

Venezuelan officials have robustly denied such sinister dimensions to the Tehran-Caracas axis. So how do these two anti-U.S. governments benefit from closer ties?

Chavez backing Iranian terrorists? Unsubstantiated!

At first glance, Chavez and his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seem to be like-minded partners: two ex-military OPEC price hawks who are lavishing their petrodollars on the poor majority long neglected by their countries' rich elites.

Iran is increasingly courting the 114-nation Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) for leverage in a dispute over its atomic work, arguing that it is only the United States and Western European countries that reckon Tehran is seeking nuclear missiles.

"It would be terribly useful for Iran to get NAM on its side as that makes the Europeans very nervous," said Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

NAM stalwart Venezuela was one of only three countries to vote against referring Iran to the U.N. Security Council at the International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in February.

Officials and analysts say this was a symbolic act in a vote the United States and its allies were always going to win. Deep down, they argue, there are clear limits to how close Caracas and Tehran can afford to become.

"What is a vote in the agency? Nothing. The Venezuelans know the real red line with Iran is arms. They both say they will repel any U.S. attack but they cannot join up on weapons," said a Latin American ambassador in Tehran.

The envoy said Caracas knows not to push its chief oil customer, the United States, too far, mentioning how quickly Defence Minister Orlando Maniglia cooled speculation in May that Venezuela could sell its old F-16 jet-fighters to Iran.

The United States slapped arms sanctions on Venezuela in May, partly because of Chavez's relations with Iran which Washington accuses of bankrolling terrorism. Venezuela is looking primarily to Russia for its weapons.

'Officials and analysts' say Iran and Venezuela know they can't cooperate that closely. So once again, don't worry!

OPEC FOUNDER MEMBERS

Iran and Venezuela, the world's nos. 4 and 5 oil exporters, forged their friendship in the 1960s as founder members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"I would say OPEC is at the heart of the relationship. There is a downward pressure on prices and the Iranians and Venezuelans are nervous," Clawson said.

Venezuela and Iran, which both have big reserves but have experienced difficulties exploiting them, view world oil markets as oversupplied by about one million barrels per day.

Iran is also investing in Venezuela. Iran Khodro, the Middle East's biggest car manufacturer, is planning to build its Samand model there and oil firm Petropars has signed a deal to measure and certify oil reserves in the Orinoco Belt.

Iranian firms are producing tractors and cement in the Caribbean state. Iran's Industry Ministry says $1 billion (540 million pounds) has been invested so far in Venezuelan projects.

Beyond the economics, Chavez and Ahmadinejad look like strange bedfellows.

"All they seem to have in common is a visceral hatred of the United States," said Ali Ansari, Iran expert at Scotland's St Andrews University. "There is no real emotional tie, if Chavez were a Muslim that would make life a lot easier.

"Ahmadinejad's sphere is the Muslim world."

Not accepting Israel's right to exist is an ideological crux of Iranian foreign policy. Venezuela has diplomatic ties with the Jewish state.

Iran's foreign policy priorities are traditionally Islamic and Ahmadinejad's populism is ideologically a world apart from Chavez's.

Chavez has focused spending on his support base in the shanty towns. In Iran, budget increases have often gone to shadowy religious foundations.

"Ahmadinejad has the populist rhetoric, but there is no plan. Where are the new irrigation systems, roads and railways? The oil money is a sort of patronage," Ansari said.

When asked how Chavistas, with their sense of being elected by the people, can ally themselves closely with a country where candidates are selected by the clerical high guard, a senior Venezuelan official said: "Relations are not spotless".

"We believe the relationship is important because of the need for a counter-weight to North American imperialism. But we also sincerely believe in a strong European Union, a strong Russia and a strong China," he added.

Do you feel all reassured? No? Well, what if you knew that Chavez was just a peripatetic man of the people:

WITNESS - Reporting on Hugo Chavez? Pack batteries

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - It was 1 a.m. and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was close to the three-hour mark in a speech to university students in Panama.
Government officials were flagging and so was I after Latin America's most vocal left-wing leader had squeezed a public ceremony, a congressional address, a Panama Canal trip and nearly seven hours of speeches into a one-day visit.

As for the pugnacious former soldier himself, he seemed like his batteries were still fully charged as he charmed the crowd with a mix of jokes, socialist theory and proposals for Latin American integration to counter U.S. influence.

...Always colorful, often surprising and sometimes grueling, reporters ignore Chavez at their peril whatever the hour. He has dismissed ministers, spiked oil prices and caused diplomatic turmoil with a few choice, late-night words.

Critics dismiss him is a authoritarian blowhard but his international status has grown apace with the screeching ascent of oil prices. Venezuela often ranks with Iraq, Nigeria and Iran as an influence on world crude.

I find myself finishing his jokes and his tales about Simon Bolivar, the 19th century South American liberation hero he says inspires his revolution for the poor, but he can still catch you off guard.

MAN OF THE PEOPLE

...That exposure is part of what makes him popular. Grateful for his heavy spending on social programs, many poor Venezuelans see Chavez as their champion. Ask what he has done for them and invariably they answer: "He speaks for us."

He is a master political showman. Recently he donned the uniform and red beret of his former paratroop regiment to hand troops a batch of new Kalashnikov rifles to defend Venezuela from a U.S. invasion he says he sees coming.

So you see, you don't have to fear Chavez. I mean, just because he's making such an effort to build close ties with Iran and North Korea, you go and assume he's dangerous? Nonsense! Why, he's a sweetheart like Castro and Ahmadinejad.

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Dem Hypocrisy on Display

About a month ago, when Democrats prepared to argue their case for keeping Tom DeLay's name on the November ballot, I said they were being hypocritical. Now that the Democrats have won the case (pending appeal), hypocrisy's on full, proud display - at the DCCC, no less:

TX-22: Waaaaaaaah!
Posted by jesselee
Thursday, July 6, 2006 at 2:56 PM

Via The Hill, we finally hear the first utterances from a Texas Republican Party firmly hoisted by its own petard.

Shorter Texas GOP: Waaaaaaaaah!

"I think it's a sad day for the voters of the 22nd district of Texas," said Gary Gillen, the chairman of the Republican Party of Fort Bend County, which is one of the four counties in that district. "I think [the ruling] denies the voters the opportunity to select the candidate they want to vote for."

Yeah, what do they call that again... oh yeah, the primary...

It was only a few short years ago (2002 to be exact), when career criminal Bob Torricelli decided that he couldn't even get re-elected in New Jersey. Even though the primary was past, and even the legal deadline for a candidate to withdraw had passed, the Democratic party said "this is about ensuring that the voters of this state have an opportunity to exercise a choice in a competitive race." The Democratic party's legal counsel further argued that "the courts historically have been uninterested in how a vacancy is created," and that not allowing a new candidate would "undermine the availability of a competitive race." The court found with the Democrats, and Frank Lautenberg stepped in at the last minute to save them.

So choice - notwithstanding the law - is good for New Jersey voters when a Democratic dead duck dodges defeat, but not for Texas voters consistent with the law?

Thngs like this probably make Rahm Emanuel's staff feel better when they're not doing CYA for future disappointments.

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The Car that Drives Itself

A car that drives itself! On the heels of a cyborg revolution? Who needs nanotechnology?

Time to dust you off, old buddy.


Update: Looks like someone else was over-excited about the arrival of the self-driving car.

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Contrasting Views in Mexico

This is from Reforma, a moderate-to-conservative Mexico City daily:



The text reads 'Just when you thought you were safe!' AMLO is of course, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador - candidated of the PRD.








This is from La Jornada - Mexico's labor-left daily:


It references AMLO's demand for a recount, which is illegal except for 'inconsistencies' (more detail here). The evil guy is delivering a ballot box to Carlos Ugalde, head of the IFE. The text reads "We found a stash of very consistent votes; they're the ones we're making so AMLO is given up for dead.'

Yes, subtlety is the wit of political cartoons.

By the way, with the count of 300 district committees now completed, Calderon is reported to have topped AMLO by .57%.

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