Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Fundraising Shows Romney's Campaign Sputtering

Soren is dead on. The thing is, the 'McCain campaign is failing' headline got written yesterday, and it's hard for the media to fit in two such headline simultaneously:

Ok. Mitt Romney was supposed to be the money king. But he only raised $2.8m more than John McCain, according to AP. Between Q1 and Q2 Romney raised, including the $9m from himself, about $44m. And now he has $12m COH.

That means that Romney spent $32m, with about $20m in Q2.

And CBS still puts him at 6% nationwide.

That is shocking. This is a failure to meet expectations on par or greater than John McCain’s. And there is no question at all that Rudy Giuliani will raise more and have more CoH than Romney.

Update: I found another way to think about this. If Mitt Romney hadn’t cut himself about $9m in checks, he would have $3m CoH. And having $2m CoH has been viewed as a meltdown for McCain, who was never supposed to be any good at fundraising anyways. The only reason Romney is in this race is that he can cut himself big checks. Combine that with the 6%, the campaign looks to be sputtering.

Question: if McCain had held his numbers until today (as Romney did) would we be talking about Romney and McCain both underperforming? That would have been a much better outcome for McCain than what he has now.

Romney's numbers are covered here and here.

Update: Rudy's team sends the following E-mail:

The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee reported today it has outraised every other Republican campaign and has over $18 million cash on hand. The campaign raised over $17 million in the second quarter, for both the primary and general election, and ended the quarter with zero debt.

The second quarter fundraising totals highlighted the Giuliani campaign’s growing momentum and commitment to discipline and efficiency with campaign dollars.

The campaign both outraised first quarter totals by more than $2 million and doubled the number of individual donors. Contributions have been received from all fifty states, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the District of Columbia.

“We are thrilled by our fundraising this quarter and are running a strong and efficient campaign. We are well positioned to win both the primary and the general elections,” said Giuliani Campaign Manager Michael DuHaime, “and we are serious about being good stewards with the money that has been entrusted to us.”

Deputy Campaign Manager Anne Dunsmore added, “Since joining Team Rudy, I have been increasingly encouraged by the response to Rudy’s message across the country. That strong support translates into an increase in the number of events, donors and dollars which will allow us not only to compete and win the primary, but to win the general election.”

$18 million cash on hand looks pretty good in this field. Does it point to a Rudy-Thompson showdown?

Update II: Hugh Hewitt thinks Romney had the best quarter of any GOP candidate (no surprise there), but I think Soren's point is inescapable.

Update III: Mr. Romney's campaign is paying close attention. They send the following comment:

"I saw your post on our fundraising numbers and wanted to point out the
crucial distinction between primary and general funds. See Jonathan
Martin's post below
for details."

Here's an update: Of the $17 million Rudy raised this quarter, about $2
million was in general funds - money he can't use in the primarycampaign, an aide said.

Included in his $18 million cash on hand is around $3 million in general dollars.

So Rudy raised significantly more than Romney, and has more on hand to spend in the primary -- but he has to wait until a general to spend $2 million of what he has. Still sounds like a Giuliani advantage to me. Of course, nothing changes the fact that Romney has deeper pockets, and can probably write a check to his campaign that would erase the Giuliani edge in this area.

No comments: