Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Population Shift Benefits GOP

The Washington Times covers this story, which I wrote about a little while ago. Here's a quote that makes it a little more concrete:

Because each state's electoral votes are based on its representation in Congress, the shift in House seats to the Sun Belt regions, where Republicans are strongest in presidential elections, would mean increased clout in the Electoral College, too.

"Overall, given a 2004 electoral vote of 286 [for President] Bush to 252 [for Sen. John] Kerry, the vote count based upon these 2010 projections would have been 292 Bush, 246 Kerry, a gain of six for the Republican ticket," Polidata's report said.

Bush could have lost 22 more electoral votes and still won the White House. A similarly-situated Republican candidate in 2012 could lose Ohio, or New Mexico, Arizona, and Arkansas, and still win the Presidency.

This could end up representing an important shift in favor of the Republicans in Presidential races. (It may not of course, because states that lean toward one party or the other today, may not lean the same way in 2012).

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