Monday, March 05, 2007

Who Won CPAC

The votes were tallied a few days ago. CPAC participants favored Romney for the nomination, with Giuliani rather close behind, and Brownback, Gingrich and McCain behind them.

So knowing who won, who really - you know - won?

Well, Captain Ed argues compellingly that it was Rudy Giuliani. Kathryn Lopez had kind words for many, but also said that Giuliani did well.

But I wanted to find the closest thing to an objective analysis that I could. So I thought I'd take a look at where people are putting their money right now - at TradeSports - where you can buy a share in the nomination chances of each Republican contender.

What did I learn? Regrettably, that you are probably stuck with subjective analysis, because the numbers aren't conclusive. But there are definitely some notable items. In particular, Giuliani seems to continue on a steady upward trend over the last month, and Romney seems to have experienced a dramatic rebound - perhaps owing to that win in the CPAC straw poll.

And if these numbers are right, John McCain might want to think about doing something else the next year or two.

First Giuliani - a clear upward trend, with only a few blips. And leading the pack with a share price around $35:

Next we'll look at Romney - who was falling before and during CPAC, but seemed to rebound dramatically at the end:

Lastly, McCain - who has little to be happy about according to Trade Sports, but at least remains ahead of the resurgent Romney (in share price, at least):

At least Senator McCain can commiserate with Senator Clinton, who's had an up-and-down month:

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