Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Fred Thompson's Getting In

Fred Thompson will announce over the July 4th holiday. I'll be curious to see how he moves in the polls now that he has shifted from likely candidate to real candidate. (But Geraghty hears from a Thompson source who says it won't be over July 4).

Craig Crawford by the way, says that this is great news for Giuliani - since the addition of social conservatives splits that group further. I usually disagree with Crawford, and this time is no exception. While what he suggests is possible, it seems more likely to me that Thompson will consolidate the conservative vote and crowd out the others - Gilmore, Hunter, Tancredo and Thompson for sure, and to at least some degree, Romney.

Think of it this way: which field is better for Giuliani - the one we have today, with McCain and Romney 10-15 points behind, and several others in the 5-10 percent range, or one where Fred Thompson is within a few points, and McCain and Romney are closer to the third tier than the second? I suspect the latter is the more likely scenario.

Chris Cillizza is closer to the Crawford position.

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