Friday, August 03, 2007

We Just Disagree...

Somebody's gotta be wrong.

The Hotline reports that in their regular poll of anonymous Republican and Democratic insiders, Democrats think there is zero chance that the GOP will retake the House, while Republicans are more optimistic:

Close to 90 percent of the Dem Insiders said that there's a low probability of a GOP takeover of either chamber. “What is less than zero?” one Dem replied, when asked the likelihood that GOP will take over the House. “They have no stars and back bench. The talent is with the Dems,” replied another. If anything, Dems were even more optimistic about keeping Senate control. “The seats up are ours. The question is how big a Democratic majority?” said one Dem Insider. Another said that GOPers were “playing defense in too many states.”

GOPers, for their part, were notably optimistic at this early stage of the '08 campaign. Half said that the chance of a GOP takeover of the House was between four and six on a 0-to-10 scale. The remainder divided about evenly between a low and high chance of a House takeover. “Anti-incumbent mood vexes the new majority!” according to a typical GOP reply. Another said that “Democrats had a great opportunity but have largely squandered it.”

It's an interesting demonstration of just how true it is that 'where you stand depends on where you sit.' Both sides are answering anonymously and -- presumably -- candidly. So what explains the broad disparity between how both sides see the race?

Actually, I run into few optimistic Republicans nowadays -- even though our presidential candidates run even with Hillary Clinton in the polls. As Republicans themselves are quick to point out, her nomination would guarantee a motivated Republican base. And if she is the nominee, she is certainly beatable.

It's encouraging to see that some Republicans recognize that 15 months before the election, before all of the candidates are yet officially in the race, we still have a chance to win.

And as you can tell from the title, this blog post is in musical tribute to Dave Mason.

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