Rudy Giuliani has formed a Presidential exploratory committee.
Tradesports shows John McCain as the favorite for the GOP nomination in 2008, and there's clearly good reason for that. After McCain's 50%, the next two contenders are Romney and Giuliani with around 13%. After those three, there is a significant dropoff.
It's seeming less and less likely that Ronald Reagan is going to come back to life and sweep the primaries. Rather, it looks like these are our candidates.
I don't know enough about Romney, despite the fact that he has a strong following in certain parts of the blogosphere. But if I have a choice of two not-really-conservatives, Giuliani has a big leg up over McCain, in my book. And all my conservative friends agree.
It seems that the job of a blogger is to talk to 3 friends and extrapolate national trends (Mickey said that somwhere). Doing that tells me that if Giuliani defers to the conservative views of the majority of Republicans on abortion, gay rights, and gun control, he will be the nominee.
Analysts have said all along that Giuliani is too socially liberal to get the Republican nomination. But most conservatives have a strong aversion to McCain, and he is doing nothing to win them over. To me, this creates a clear opening for Giuliani. I believe he has more credibility with conservatives than does McCain, and stands a fair chance against him in the primaries.
Back to the top.
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Posted by The Editor at IP at 12:29 PM