Monday, July 03, 2006

Mexico Vote Tied; Calderon Ahead Late!

(Updated and Bumped)
According to Mexico City's El Universal, exit polling shows the election tied ('empatado') between Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and the PAN's Felipe Calderon. I think we would use the phrase 'too close to call.' They say that Madrazo is a certain distance behind the two leaders.

The IFE has said that it hopes to be able to declare a winner by 11:00pm Mexican time (midnight, Eastern). However, there will be no declaration if the official count is as close as the exit polling suggests.

Update: El Economista is carrying the tally from the Federal Election Institute, which (as I write this) shows Calderon with 36.74% and Obrador with 35.6%, with just over 90% of the vote counted. Madrazo is a shade over 20%. This is not the final, official, certified result, but it is the real tally of votes - not an exit poll. The percentage of the votes counted is under 'actas procesadas.' 'Participación Ciudadana' is the voter turnout.

Looks like Michael Barone was right - with a vengeance. Madrazo's support dropped significantly from the final polls, while Calderon's surged. Any question that a lot of people who preferred Madrazo couldn't stand the idea of an AMLO win? And given that AMLO has claimed victory, count on there being more than 100,000 people marching to Mexico City's Zocalo today, in support of his candidacy.

Update 2: While it has attracted less attention, the results of voting for Mexico's Legislature are critical - and depressing. One major problem that Vicente Fox encountered was a recalcitrant Congress, unwilling to act on a number of his proposed reforms. Well, the Mexican voters look like they've created a divided legislature again, with roughly one-third of the vote for each of the three major parties, in both the upper and lower House (look at 'Senadores' and 'Diputados' here). Thus the new President will face a fractured Legislature again, and will have a challenge getting anything done.

Update 3: Mark in Mexico tracks the vote count, and Gateway Pundit is worth a read.

Update 4: The markets recognize Calderon's lead. The peso is up.

Update 5: Looks like the photographers are starting to snap photos of Mexico City protesters. Expect lots more today. This banner says simply "AMLO Won; Honk your horn."

Update 6: As noted above, the voters split their vote for both chambers of Congress. While the PAN (Calderon's party) has the lead position in both the upper and lower chambers, they are significantly short of an absolute majority in both. In the Chamber of Deputies, the breakdown is PAN 139 seats, PRD 99 seats, and PRI 62 seats. In the Senate 41 seats for the PAN, 26 for the PRD, and 29 seats for the PRI. These are rough numbers, because seats are also provided according to proportional representation, and also because the totals will be for the coalition headed by each party, and once the election is over the coalitions will break out again into their constituent parties. So the totals given here give a good sense of what the ratios will be, but are far from final.

Update 7: I've created a new post now that AMLO has challenged the IFE count.

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Anonymous said...

I think we need to grab Veracruz now, before the kids start marching in Tlatelolco.

Anonymous said...

Exacvtly, now is the opportunity to hit them hard and fast, drive the border southward to a poitn where it narrows significantly and is much easier to defend.

Anonymous said...

Wow. The Texan Congressional delegation will get huge! But I suppose invading now is better than watching Texas secede in 20 or 30 years and swallowing Latin America whole!