Monday, October 23, 2006

Measuring the Wave

Mark Blumenthal over at has posted the first two installments (here and here) of what looks like it will ultimately be an interesting piece at He is looking at the coming Democratic 'wave' and wondering how big it will be - and what effect it will have.

He starts out with a good quote from Mark Mellman:

There's a big anti-Republican wave out there. But that wave will crash up against a very stable political structure, so we won't be sure of the exact scope of Democratic gains until election night. We really don't yet know which is ultimately more important -- the size of the wave or the stability of the structure.

In many ways, this is the central question of the election. How big will the Democratic wave be, and given the powers of gerrymandering and incumbency, how big an effect will it have?

The second of the two Blumenthal pieces looks at the greater enthusiasm on the Democtatic side, and begins to address whether this will lead to a turnout advantage.

Back to the top.

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