Thursday, October 26, 2006

Novak Trashes Barron's; Predicts Dem House

Evans and Novak write this week that House Democrats look likely to gain about 21 seats, which would give them control of the House. They suggest a Democratic gain of 4 seats in the Senate.

I put the House a little closer; my current count is an 18-20 seat gain for the Democrats.

Notably, Evans and Novak also trash the much-discussed prediction of Barron's that the House would stay Republican. Their criticsms are very similar to mine.

Update: Larry Sabato has weighed in with his latest assessment. He estimates that Democrats will gain 21-26 seats in the House, 4 to 6 in the Senate, and 5 to 7 governorships. Read the whole thing to get commentary on what the GOP ground game is worth (2 points or so) and the potential effect of the NJ decision.

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