Spoof Sites

National Journal (subscription required) has an interesting piece on the increasing use of 'spoof sites' in congressional races:

www.DoesThisSpoofSiteReallyWork.com
Politicos Get Creative And Aggressive In Posting Opposition Research On The Web

By Erin McPike and Patrick Ottenhoff, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2006

In early September, the Republican National Committee launched AmericaWeakly.com to take a humorous jab at what Congress would look like if the Democrats gained control. Mocking the minority party, the site features funny snapshots of notorious liberal legislators and satirical accounts of what their agenda might resemble. It's like the Onion -- but an Onion in which every joke is on the Democrats.

And Democrats aren't the only party being ribbed online. AmericaWeakly was a kind of counterpoint to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's FudgeReport.net, a site modeled after the Drudge Report that skewers Republicans.

Cheap to run and easy to put together, Web pages like these "spoof sites" are popping up in a number of competitive races this cycle. They first surfaced in Senate campaigns, but are trickling down to House races, too...

But Washington-based campaign committees aren't the only groups producing spoof sites. Internet-savvy campaigns themselves are also in on the act.

Virginia Davis, campaign spokeswoman for Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., said the spoof site targeting Democratic opponent Bob Casey, WheresCasey.com, has "become part of our messaging strategy." Indeed, Santorum continues to ream Casey for ducking debates, along with his duties as state treasurer, during his campaign...

The sites listed by NJ:

America Weakly
The Fudge Report
The Pryce is Not Right
Where's Casey?
George's Journeys
The Real Steele
Fancy Ford
Clueless Claire
Far Out Brown
Pedersons Liberal Express
Very Fancy Frist
Double Talk Express
Too Junior for Jersey
George Allen for Prez

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Tracking the Congressional Election

So how big is the wave that's going to wipe out the GOP on November 7? Why do Republicans act as if they still have hope? Will Democrats top 400 House seats and 80 Senate seats? How do I keep track?

Well, Roll Call has made available a free tracker of the House and Senate races that take place in a few weeks. They list the number of safe, likely, and leaning races for each party, and tell you where the tossups are, and how they look.

As of the morning of October 12, they list the GOP as having 206 House races at least leaning their way, and the Democrats with 208. They identify 21 tossup races. Simple math tells you that the GOP needs to hold all their safe/likely/leaning races, and then win 12 of the 21 tossups to hold the majority. The Democrats need to retain their own, and win 10 of the tossups.

Looks like the map is updated frequently, so it might be worth a bookmark.

Looking at the specific races identified as tossups, it looks to me like the GOP definitely has a reasonable shot at winning 12 of the 21. Is that the outcome I would bet on? Check back on election day.

Also, not to get too far down into the weeds, but don't forget about party-switchers. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are party switchers after election day. Will Steny Hoyer stay a Democrat if Nancy Pelosi backs John Murtha in his leadership race? Will Democrats in conservative districts - like Charlie Melancon in Louisiana and Jim Marshall in Georgia - stay Democrats? Will Henry Cuellar of Texas prove that his endorsement of George Bush was not a fluke, and become a Republican - as many Democrat critics have said he really is?

And what of Joe Lieberman, or Lincoln Chafee (if he survives)?

We'll learn more, as the world turns...

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Bush to Sign Border Fence Bill

Mickey has written some more about speculation that the President intends to veto HR 6061, the Secure Fence Act. Based on a lot of what the President has had to say, and even what some spokespeople have had to say, you can make a good case that he sounds like he's not committed to it.

However, it seems to me that after his comments at yesterday's press conference - where he did not challenge a reporter who assumed he would sign it - and particularly after Tony Snow's E-mail to the guys at Powerline - it's pretty clear that the President will sign the bill.

I think if you want to delve into this further, the question at this point is how the President will handle this. It's clear from his comments yesterday that he remains committed to comprehensive reform and some form of (*ahem*) earned legalization. Will he continue to stand proudly with what polls say is the overwhelming majority of Americans who favor this view? Will he sign the bill, but say it's a disappointment, and only a marginal improvement from the status quo (kind of like Clinton did when he signed the Defense of Marriage Act)? Will he do so without fanfare, allowing Members of Congress to tout the achievement?

Or will the President identify himself with the Republican base, which likes this bill and will actually decide this election?

Also, while Mickey has been painstakingly reading tea leaves like an old-line Sovietologist going over May Day photos, I don't think he's patted himself on the back where he proved prescient. To wit, where are all the stories about how immigration has torn the GOP apart, and is threatening their standing in many key races? I've actually heard a few reporters describe this as a strong issue for the GOP - something that few were predicting just a few months ago.

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Fence Bill Cleared for White House

According to Thomas, the Secure Fence Act has been cleared for the White House (as of September 29).

And by the way, in his press conference this morning, the President said he will sign the bill.

Update: The White House posted the transcript of the President's press conference this morning. He sure doesn't seem excited about HR 6061, but I don't see any way he can veto it, given that he clearly implicates he's going to sign it. But it sure is funny that he doesn't say something like 'I'm looking forward to signing this bill!'

Anyway, the relevant portion of the transcript:

Q Thank you. On a different topic. You've said you will sign the border fence bill to build 700 miles of fence along the U.S. border, but DHS has said it prefers a virtual fence of sensors and cameras rather than an actual wall. Are you committed to building the 700 miles of fence, actual fencing?

THE PRESIDENT: Yes, we're going to do both, Joe. We're just going to make sure that we build it in a spot where it works. I don't -- DHS said they want a virtual wall. I don't believe that's the only thing they've said. I think you might have truncated their statement, because we're actually building fence, and we're building double fence in particular -- in areas where there is a high vulnerability for people being able to sneak in.

You can't fence the entire border, but what you can do is you can use a combination of fencing and technology to make it easier for the Border Patrol to enforce our border. I happen to believe, however, that in order to make sure the border is fully secure, we need a guest worker program, so people aren't sneaking in in the first place.

And so I look forward to not only implementing that which Congress has funded, in a way that says to folks, the American people, we'll enforce our border, but I'm going to continue to campaign and work for a comprehensive bill so that whatever we do in terms of equipment and manpower works better. If somebody is not trying to sneak in to work, in other words, coming through in a way where they're showing a temporary worker pass, where they're not using coyotes to smuggle across, where they're not going through tunnels, it's going to make it much easier for us to do our job, Joe, and that's enforce the border.

And so my judgment is, if the people want this country secure, we've got to do -- have a smart border, which we're in the process of developing now. It's a combination of fencing and technologies -- UAVs, sensors. I don't know if you've ever been down there, but it's a pretty vast part of country down there. It's hard to enforce that border. You've got some rugged country; you've got stretches of territory where you don't even know where the border is. You've got urban areas, like El Paso, or Southern California, where people have been able to sneak in by use of urban corridors. And so, therefore, fencing makes sense there.

I went down to Arizona, the Arizona sector, and saw a place where there's literally neighborhoods abutting the border, and people come -- a hundred of them would rush across the border into a little subdivision, and the Border Patrol would catch two or three, and 97 would get in. And they're asking, what are you going to provide to help us do our job? And in this case, those who are in charge of coming up with the proper strategy to enforce the border said, we need double fencing with space, so that the Border Patrol can use that fencing as leverage against people rushing into the country.

And my only point to you is that the strategy to develop this border requires different assets based on the conditions -- based upon what the terrain looks like. And that's what we're doing.

But I repeat to you, when you've got a situation where people are sneaking in to do jobs Americans aren't doing, it's also going to keep a strain on the border. And so, therefore, a temporary worker plan, to me, makes sense, and it's a much more humane program -- approach, by the way. It will certainly help stamp out all these illegal characters that are exploiting human beings. You know, these coyotes that stuff people in the back of 18-wheelers for money is just -- that's not in character with how this nation works. And I think we ought to -- I think a good program that helps us enforce our border also will see to it that people are treated more humanely.

Thank you for your interest.

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Madeline Albright - Friend to Terrorists

I was waiting until this video was available somewhere other than YouTube. It's pretty funny; check it out.

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Plane Crashes into Belaire Building in NYC

According to CNN, this was a twin-engine, fixed-wing aircraft. (BTW, looks like there are some units available, and it seems like it must have a great view of the East River).

It sounds like an accident and there is no indication that this is a terrorist incident. Nevertheless, it is reported that fighter aircraft are being scrambled over a number of US cities, to offer protection just in case.

Wizbang is doing a good job of keeping updated on the incident. Or follow it on New York's WABC television.

Not to jump to the political angle, but between Foley, North Korea, and events like this, you can see why the election this year is so volatile. If (God forbid) this were an act of terrorism, it would likely have some effect on how people view the election.

Update: It's been widely reported that Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle was killed in this accident. According to his bio on the Yankees website, Lidle is married with a six-year old son. Condolences to his wife and son obviously; our prayers are with them.

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The Hail Mary Play

It's by no means certain at this point that the Democrats will gain control of the House of Representatives in 27 days, but you certainly have to like their chances. Looking at recent polling, I think you can identify 8-10 House seats that are very likely Democratic takeovers. And given the inability of the GOP to focus debate and discussion on 'their issues' (national security, taxes, immigration), and the possibility that the media will continue to focus on the Foley mess, you can't be particularly optimistic of a change in fortune. All-in-all, I suspect that the Democrats are closer to a 25 seat gain than they are a 15 seat gain.

Which begs the question: what can the GOP do to change the dynamic?

I have a solution: one of those ideas that's too inventive and brilliant ever to be tried. Four words: House Speaker Rudy Giuliani.

Now before you laugh me out of the room, hear me out. As Roll Call explained yesterday, if Dennis Hastert vacates the speakership, the Speaker pro tempore will be the first person named on the list of successors he has placed in the trust of the House Clerk. Here is the relevant House rule:

3) (a) In the case of a vacancy in the office of Speaker, the next Member on the list described in subdivision (b) shall act as Speaker pro tempore until the election of Speaker or a Speaker pro tempore. Pending such election the Member acting as Speaker pro tempore may exercise such authorities of the Office of Speaker as may be necessary and appropriate to that end.

(b) As soon as practicable after his election and whenever he deems appropriate thereafter, the Speaker shall deliver to the Clerk a list of Members in the order in which each shall act as Speaker pro tempore under subdivision (a).

(c) For purposes of subdivision (a), a vacancy in the office of Speaker may exist by reason of the physical inability of the Speaker to discharge the duties of the office.

Since Hastert can change the names on the list any time he wishes, why doesn't he name Giuliani as his successor, and then vacate the office? Speaker pro tempore Giuliani would serve until the House met again to name a successor - some time after the election.

The only glitch here is that House rules specify that the successor shall be a Member [of the House], but of course, the Constitution does not require that ("The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker..."). It's probably an oversight in the drafting of the rule. I doubt it matters much anyway.

Speaker Giuliani could promise to stand for election as Speaker again in the new Congress. He'd be a better public figure than Hastert as the face of the Congressional GOP. People would be more likely to trust him to root out corruption in Congress (although that's not a slam dunk). And he'd be a strong and credible figure on terrorism and national security. It's a win-win-win!

And what would Giuliani get? Well, a few years as Speaker would give him a chance to build up chits for a Presidential run. He could take credit for legislative accomplishments in the House on his watch, and demonstrate to wary social conservatives that given a position of responsiblity, he would not use it to advance a liberal agenda on gay rights or abortion.

What do you think?

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Damn That Global Warming!

Responsible for Katrina last year, and undoubtedly responsible for the warm winter we're expecting this year! Storms, snows, warm fronts, and record crops - what can't global warming do - apart from get Al Gore elected President, that is...

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Hastert's Successor Already Selected

Update: Can anyone tell me why so many people are searching 'Hasterts Successor?'

Roll Call (subscription required) points out that if Dennis Hastert resigns his speakership, his succesor has already been selected. Purusant to a House rule change designed to ensure continuity in Congress, Hastert has already selected him (or her):

Next Speaker? Check the List
October 10, 2006
By Susan Davis,
Roll Call Staff

While the current page scandal and the possibility of a change in House control on Election Day have prompted plenty of speculation about who the next Speaker will be, the real answer might just be locked away in a safe in the office of the House Clerk.

Inside that vault is a list of Members — known only to a handful of people — who would take over the Speaker’s post in the case of an immediate vacancy.

First written into House rules in the 108th Congress during the continuity of Congress reforms necessitated by the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the line of succession provision could be triggered for the first time if Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) — under fire from the still-unfolding scandal surrounding former Rep. Mark Foley’s (R-Fla.) interaction with House pages — took the unlikely step of resigning his office before the start of the next session.

If Hastert left the Speaker’s office immediately, for whatever reason, the first Member on the list — which was written by Hastert himself — would be elevated to Speaker Pro Tem and could act with all of the constitutional authority vested in the office, until the Congress could convene to duly elect a Speaker by the full House.

After weathering a scathing week of criticism piled on him and his top aides over how Republican leaders handled their response to a 2005 e-mail exchange between a former House page and Foley, Hastert appears secure to hold onto his office at least through the end of the 109th Congress...

If Hastert were forced out before the elections, the vacancy would trigger the succession provision and a Member, who is not known to the public, would be elevated to the office. Sources, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the topic, said it was unlikely the House would reconvene before Nov. 7 and a Speaker Pro Tem could preside over the House because the chamber is in recess until Nov. 13.

Presumably, a new Speaker would be determined by the Republican Conference if the GOP retains the majority on Nov. 15, when leadership elections are scheduled, and would be duly elected by the full House on the first day of the new session in January...

Even if Republicans retain the majority, it remains to be seen if Hastert can hold on to the office. The Speaker must be elected by a majority of the full House, and it would take only a handful of GOP Members in a tightly divided House to end his tenure if they threaten to oppose him on the floor. There is no clear consensus candidate for Speaker in that scenario at this point. If Democrats win a majority of seats, Hastert is expected to retire, and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) would be Speaker.

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Shocking News: Democrats Sat on Foley Messages

ABC news suggested that the Foley E-mails and messages were leaked by Republicans, but it's becoming increasingly clear that it was Democrats who sat on this information for months and leaked it at a politically-opportune time.

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Am I the Only One Who Sees a Problem?

So North Korea's detonation of a nuclear weapon has led some to contemplate hopefully the possibility that Japan will now develop nuclear weapons, and allow the formation of a real military.

Do we really want to trust nuclear weapons to the people developing the FemBot?

The strange thing is they make such bloody good cameras...

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Menendez Caught in Dirty Trick

New York's CBS news reports that Bob Menendez and his campaign set up his challenger Tom Kean, and recorded the incident to post on YouTube. It's worth a look.

It's looking as if the Kean-Menendez race might be one of the few bright spots for the GOP on election day.

Hat Tip: Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

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Latin America: Blunting the Leftist Surge

A few months ago, it was all the rage to talk about the surge of leftism in the Americas, and to fret about Mexico electing a leftist to top things off. Well, that leftist tide has not entirely subsided, but Mexico elected a conservative, and it's starting to seem possible that Brazil might as well.

What are the chances that Lula will be defeated by Alckmin in the upcoming runoff? The Brazilian real is rising as investors speculate on a Lula defeat.

If the GOP loses Congress and Bush is forced to focus even more on foreign policy than he does right now, then a win by Alckmin in Brazil would set the stage for more vigorous diplomacy in our own hemishpere.

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GOP Seeks to Frame the Debate

It's widely accepted that the best way to win is to make sure that voters are focused on the issues where you have the advantage. So debates about Iraq and seduction of pages don't really help GOP candidates, while discussions of the economy, the War on Terror, and immigration all (apparently) help the GOP. Captain Ed notes that the White House will try to shift attention to some of those GOP issues in the last days before election day this year.

Of course, the GOP has gotten no credit for the strong economy, and things have turned so bad that recent polls show the public puts more faith in Democrats than the GOP to handle the War on Terror. One fears that the White House may be spitting into the wind on this one.

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Eskimos Flip Chavez the Bird

A good example of the American spirit. I hope that some enterprising heating oil company rewards these villages for standing on principle:

Alaska villages reject Venezuela oil
By JEANNETTE J. LEE, Associated Press Writer

In Alaska's native villages, the punishing winter cold is already coming through the walls of the lightly insulated plywood homes, many of the villagers are desperately poor, and heating-oil prices are among the highest in the nation.

And yet a few villages are refusing free heating oil from Venezuela, on the patriotic principle that no foreigner has the right to call their president "the devil."

The heating oil is being offered by the petroleum company controlled by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, President Bush's nemesis. While scores of Alaska's Eskimo and Indian villages say they have no choice but to accept, others would rather suffer.

"As a citizen of this country, you can have your own opinion of our president and our country. But I don't want a foreigner coming in here and bashing us," said Justine Gunderson, administrator for the tribal council in the Aleut village of Nelson Lagoon. "Even though we're in economically dire straits, it was the right choice to make."

Nelson Lagoon residents pay more than $5 a gallon for oil — or at least $300 a month per household — to heat their homes along the wind-swept coast of the Bering Sea, where temperatures can dip to minus-15. About one-quarter of the 70 villagers are looking for work, in part because Alaska's salmon fishing industry has been hit hard by competition from fish farms.

The donation to Alaska's native villages has focused attention on the rampant poverty and high fuel prices in a state that is otherwise awash in oil — and oil profits. In 2005, 86 percent of the Alaska's general fund, or $2.8 billion, came from oil from the North Slope.

The Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, a native nonprofit organization that would have handled the heating oil donation on behalf of 291 households in Nelson Lagoon, Atka, St. Paul and St. George, rejected the offer because of the insults Chavez has hurled at Bush.

Chavez called Bush "the devil" in a speech to the United Nations last month. He has also called the president a terrorist and denounced the war in Iraq.

Dimitri Philemonof, president and chief executive of the association, said accepting the aid would be "compromising ourselves." "I think we have some duty to our country, and I think it's loyalty," he said.

Over the past two years, Citgo, the Venezuelan government's Texas-based oil subsidiary, has given millions of gallons of discounted heating oil to the poor in several states and cities — including New York, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine — in what is widely seen as an effort by Chavez to embarrass and irritate the U.S. government and make himself look good.

Maine Gov. John Baldacci, who approved an agreement last winter to buy discounted oil, said he had no plans this year to seek a similar arrangement. In Boston, a City Council member wants a landmark Citgo sign near Fenway Park taken down and replaced with an American flag. In Florida, a lawmaker asked the state to cancel Citgo's exclusive contract to sell fuel at turnpike service stations.

About 150 native villages in Alaska have accepted money for heating oil from Citgo. The oil company does not operate in Alaska, so instead of sending oil, it is donating about $5.3 million to native nonprofit organizations to buy 100 gallons this winter for each of more than 12,000 households...

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The Plot Thickens

I note that Mickey, Glenn, and Captain Ed have been expressing concern about the intent of the President and Congressional leadership toward the Secure Fence Act. Well, it seems that there's good news and bad news for fence advocates.

First the good news: I do not believe the President is approaching any pocket veto deadline for the fence legislation. The bad news is, it does not appear to have been sent to him for signature.

The Congress maintains a very useful online database of legislation known as Thomas. If you go to Thomas and look at the history of a bill that has been signed into law, you will see these lines at the end:

Cleared for White House.
Presented to President.

Well, go to Thomas, and look up HR 6061, the Secure Fence Act of 2006. If you click on 'Bill Summary and Status,' and then look at 'All Congressional Actions,' the last action you will see on the legislation is this:

Passed Senate without amendment by Yea-Nay Vote. 80 - 19. Record Vote Number: 262.

It's possible that this has simply not been updated, but I've always found Thomas to be accurate within a business day or so. I note that it records bills signed into law as recently as October 5, at least.

If the legislation has not been cleared for the White House and presented to the President, it can't be subject to a pocket veto. Of course, it can't be signed into law either. Congress does not have to be in session for legislation to be cleared for the White House and presented to the President, as long as the two Houses have previously approved such actions (CRS lays that out here). I don't know if that happened in this case, but it sounds to me like the sort of thing that's approved as a matter of routine.

Is the plan to wait until closer before the election, so the signing will be more dramatic? Or is it never to send it to the President, so no veto is reported? If the GOP in Washington knows what's good for them, the truth is closer to option 'A.' Furthermore, I suspect that if the answer were 'B,' guys like Tom Tancredo and JD Hayworth would be screaming bloody murder...

Update: The Corner reports that Patrick Ruffini of the RNC says that the President will sign the bill. Of course, Patrick could E-mail me, too! After all, I was defending the GOP!

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The Silver Lining?

Well, it's unclear yet how great an impact the Foley mess will have on GOP chances of retaining Congress. I'm hopeful that this might in fact, blow over quickly, and allow Republicans to return to discussing their strengths: economic growth and the War on Terror. If that happens, I think they have a fair chance of retaining their majorities. For that reason, I question whether it's wise for Dennis Hastert and other Congressional Republicans to try to turn the Foley affair into a weapon against Democrats; it's probably better to just move on.

And on a related point, Novak is, as always, worth a read. First off, he notes that the first indication is that the Foley scandal is not necessarily electoral death for the Republicans:

A footnote: Pollster John Zogby last week found no landslide effects of the Foley scandal. Democrats did lead the Reuters/Zogby polls in 11 out of 15 key House districts held by endangered Republicans. Democrats may have to win all 15 of those districts to be assured of ousting Republicans from House control. Democratic leads shown by Zogby were generally not of landslide proportions, and there was no immediate upsurge in Democratic strength as news coverage of the scandal intensified.

Also, he points out that several moderate former Democratic representatives are lobbying to keep Social Security reform 'on the table' for Bush's last two years in office:

Two moderate former Democratic congressmen -- Tim Penny of Minnesota and Charlie Stenholm of Texas -- are spearheading a campaign against organized labor's determination to fight any reform of Social Security.

The labor-sponsored Americans United to Protect Social Security has pressed Democratic candidates for Congress to join "a golden promise" against anything approaching President Bush's proposed Social Security reform.

A Sept. 26 "For Our Grandchildren" letter, signed by Penny and Stenholm, rejects the argument that Social Security does not need fixing. They contend its "financial outlook is deteriorating." While not advocating specific options, they call for bipartisan reform.

'Saving Social Security' is always going to be difficult in a government united under one party. Why would the loyal opposition choose to lend credibility to a reform plan that by its nature had to disappoint many people? It's far more advantageous politically to snipe. That's certainly one reason that Bush's efforts have failed so far: good policy and saving Social Security were not important enough to Democrats to overcome political calculation.

Well, if Democrats retake one or more Houses of Congress, it could be that both the GOP and the Democrats see the advantage in taking Social Security off the table before the 2008 campaign. After all, it's unclear which party would gain more from such a debate, as the growth in the investor class lends more support to the GOP side of the debate. Would Speaker Pelosi (and Majority Leader Reid?) join President Bush in a plan to save Social Security and take it out of the mix of 2008 issues? They might, particularly considering it could be the last chance to address the issue until the second term of whoever is elected President in 2008. For those who support Social Security, each year that passes without addressing the problems in the program, guarantees a harsher solution.

On the other hand, if Republicans retain the Congress with narrow majorities, Social Security reform is likely dead for a few years, anyway. The hand of those who want to eviscerate the program will definitely be strengthened.

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Shades of 1994

Political scientist Larry Sabato sees a significant similarity between 1994 and 2008: the majority party in Congress virtually forfeiting scarce seats. Even if you accept that the Foley seat is not necessarily lost (as Mickey argues), the GOP's edge in the House is small enough that they can't afford to put any seats at risk.

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Not a Good Day to be a Cameraman

At least, not in the Motor City.

The Detroit Tigers send Kenny 'the Gambler' Rogers to the mound, who pitched for the Texas Rangers until he punched a cameraman. Randy Johnson on the other hand, still pitches for the Yankees - even though his first action upon joining the Yankees was to punch a cameraman.

I guess that's why those cameramen get paid the big bucks, huh?

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Iceland: End of an Era

On Saturday, 29 September, the U.S. ends its presence at Keflavik. US troops have been there since World War II, and I believe this now makes Iceland the only NATO member state with neither a military of its own nor allied forces stationed on its soil.

I guess will be relying more and more on SOSUS to deal with the threat of rickety Russian subs sneaking theough the GIUK gap.

One of Washington's Top 10 Rules of Power

When a senior person announces that he has complete confidence in a member of his staff or political team, there is little doubt that that person is mentally redrafting his resume at that very moment. From that point of view, it seems increasingly likely to me that Musharraf knows his end is near:

Blair to allay Musharraf concerns

Pakistan's ISI is too close to Muslim terrorists: British Report

CITGO

I'm not sure if it matters, but it was still nice to see that 7-11 was ditching CITGO. Of course, the government/military-only gas station on the Pentagon "reservation", well that's still a CITGO so I'm not sure everybody's on the same page yet.

My Two Cents on the Irish Economic Miracle

During a trip to Ireland in summer 1999, my family noticed that 3 out of every 4 waitresses/hostesses was an Eastern European or German teenage girl. And a healthy number of the busboys weren't Gaelic either. My mom found it curious. She had not been to Ireland since 1957 and I think she had envisioned rubbing elbows with the charming young local sorts you find in the pubs, etc. My mom asked the manager at one place what was up and he replied:

• Teenagers from the continent like to get summer jobs in countries where they can learn English.
• They used to go to the UK but it's much easier for them to find a job in Ireland.

I went back to Ireland last summer and, saw more construction cranes from the rooftop bar at the Dublin Guinness Brewery than I had ever seen at one time in NYC. It's nice to see what capitalism can accomplish in seven years.

This all might be going to their heads though. One of the staff at Trinity college told me, geographically speaking, it is no longer politically correct to refer to Ireland as one of the British Isles. It is now the "Westernmost island of the North Atlantic Archipelago."

USA Today Cuts to Quick of Modern US Politics

House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, a Catholic mother of five from San Francisco, has fewer children in her district than any other member of Congress: 87,727.

Rep. José Serrano, D-N.Y., has 227,246 children in his Bronx district, the 10th most in the House. Only 29% of those children live with married parents.

•Democrats represent 59 districts in which less than half of adults are married. Republicans represent only two.

•Democrats represent 30 districts in which less than half of children live with married parents. Republicans represent none.

Another Assessment About Musharraf

Tony Blankley signs on to the notion that Musharraf is on his way out.

“If you have ambition in Poland, you come to Ireland.”

The Irish Economic Miracle

Running Around Parliaments IS Bad

In case anyone was wondering why the US Capitol Police are being purged over the recent security breach:

Death date set for Delhi jihadi

Close the Hellhole Which Is Belgium, I Say

Youths riot in Brussels again over inmate death

Why is the International Red Cross not given access to these detainees? Where is Amnesty International? Surely these "youths" of peace would not riot without great provocation, especially in the garden hothouse of socialism and secular diversity which is Belgium. We clearly need more spending to address the root causes of this rage.

Have any EU parliamentarians' autos been torched, I wonder?

Who would win a popular vote in Pakistan?

When was the last time they even had an election in Pakistan? Pervez goofs around on the Daily Show.

When I Became a Man, I Put Away Childish Things

Nevertheless, I want this. There's nothing childish about taking on the Destroyer of Worlds.

The National Intelligence Estimate

Here's the three-plus pages of "key judgements" from the April 2006 NIE. It's worth reading, particularly since it takes about five minutes. You can also tell it's a consensus piece because the thesis seems to cover just about everything. The bottom line is, "four underlying factors" are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement:

1. "Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, lead to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness"
2. "The Iraq jihad"
3. "The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms, in many Muslim majority nations"
4. "Pervasive anti-U.S. sentiment among most Muslims"

If you can think of something that is happening, has happened or could happen vis a vis the West and the Islamic world, that doesn't fall under one of these factors, you're more imaginative then me. For example, support for Israel can fall under 1 or 4. The Danish cartoons and the Pope's recent speech defintely fall under under 1. Any use of military force to halt Iranian nuclear enrichment, would definitely fall under 1 and 4 and could easily become the a new number 2. A military intervention in Darfur by the West could be taken as another exanple of 1 and 4, and again could even be another 2. Even aid to foreign Islamic governments only seems to exacerbate 3.

Ironically, it's very similar to a CATO Instititute white paper on terrorism I read in the late 1990s. That paper proposed a solution for the rising anti-American terrorism in the Middle east at that time. First, it listed the major grievances that Muslims had with America: support for Israel, bases in Saudi Arabia, the occasional tomahawk strikes on Iraq, etc. The answer, it explained, was very simple. Stop doing those things, stop angering the terrorists, bring the boys home and everything would eventually settle down. (Not very surprising from the libertarian CATO institute. Not very practical then, and even less so now. I mean, we actually gave up the bases in Saudi and that hasn't seemed to take the edge off the situation.)

To it's credit, the NIE doesn't advocate ending our involvement in the Muslim world. But it does say, between the lines, just about anything we do, have done, or will do is going to make angry men angrier.

My recommendation is to read the NIE, then go read The Coming Anarchy and Blackhawk Down to get yourself in the right frame of mind for the next 20 years or so.

Dhimmitude Is Easy

Berlin Opera Cancels Mozart Show Featuring Severed Muhammad Head

So the notion of the importance of "artistic freedom of expression" in Europe has once again in practice been shown merely to amount to: "I disagree with what you say, but I will pose as defending to the death your right to say it so long as there is no actual prospect of actually having to so."

EU Passes on Turkey; Turkish Army Justifies Role

On the one hand, the EU seems unlikely to ever seriously consider Turkey's admission to the EU so long as basic liberal processes remain foreign to Turkish politics, but on the other hand, the Turkish army seems to lack confidence that such processes can develop in Turkey without causing their own termination.

Jihadists Continue Occupation of Somalia

While the world's attention has been elsewhere, the Islamist hardliners have been expanding their control in Somalia, prompting Ethiopia to move closer and closer to open intervention:

Ethiopian troops are in Somalia, say witnesses

Further Evidence That Musharraf Is Losing His Grip

Coupled with the recent separate peace Pakistan signed with the Taliban, and the rumours of coups generated by a blackout during Musharraf's book tour to New York, the data points are beginning to shape a line pointing to a future with Pakistan under new management:

Governing Pakistan is a difficult job: Musharraf

Musharraf's proposal that the Taliban in Afghanistan are really motivated by the plight of the Palestinians borders on the comical in its complete immersion in a preference for anti-Zionism as a substitute for actual engagement with difficult reality. Musharraf also proposes that India's nuclear programme is somehow the product of that naughty national treasure, A.Q. Khan.

It's also salient, in light of the coup in Thailand, to remember that the international community thought allowing Musharraf to overthrow the democratic government of Pakistan was the least bad solution at the time, as well.

New Japanese Premier May Tighten Screws on North Korea

The instability of the Kim family in Pyongyang is certain to be near the top of the agenda: Abe seeks urgent summit with Chinese leader

The positive comments of Wu Yi are almost dispositive of the question as to whether the summit will occur, although the Japan Times maintains a skeptical outlook: Success elusive so far in China summit talks

Wrong on So Many Levels

Russell Crowe wants to play Steve Irwin

ANZAC Countries Contemplate Future of Socialised Medicine in the Anglosphere

Staff exodus threatens Pacific health systems

Turns out that English-speaking medical staff are not fixed assets whose immobility may be presumed regardless of (dis)incentives. Anyone trying to find an obstetrician in New York already knows this.

Equal Time for Christians Behaving Badly

Christians riot in Indonesia after execution of 3 Christians for involvement in previous riots.

From the Sydney Morning Herald:

"Christian mobs rioted after the executions of Fabianus Tibo, Dominggus da Silva and Marinus Riwu, torching cars and homes and smashing windows in government offices. Church leaders took to the streets to call for calm and 4000 police were deployed to prevent clashes with Muslim communities.

The three Christians were convicted in connection with the killing of more than 70 men, women and children who had sought refuge in a school in the Central Sulawesi town of Poso in May 2000. At their trial, no witnesses testified to seeing any of them kill anyone. Strong doubts were raised about the fairness of their trial and there were allegations the sentences were driven by pressure from hardline Muslim groups."

Are Americans Free to Riot?

Now that Chavez has condemned Bush in the most Manichaeistic terms imaginable?

Chavez's evangelicalism for this new religion based on the sacred texts of the prophet Noam Chomsky is yet another cult of the ill-informed but well-intended led by the well-informed but ill-intended.

Global Media Slowly Condemn Thai Coup

Thailand's king reverts to the bad old days--Daily Telegraph

The blow felt around the region--Sydney Morning Herald

Rolling Back the Tanks--The Hindu

Some papers, how ever, fall into a contemptible utilitarianism: pity it had to come to force, but we're all much better off. The Times of London leads this pack:

Cost of the coup

Democracy deferred as generals return--The Australian

Thai Alert--Hindustan Times

This creeping Caesarism should give all readers of Spengler pause.

Religion of Peace Strikes Again

"NIGERIA once again relapsed into sectarian violence yesterday as a band of irate youths went on rampage in Dutse, Jigawa State capital. They looted and set ablaze 10 worship centres."

A Glimpse of the Future?

I was struck reading the New Zealand Herald's top story on the coup in Thailand ("Thailand still safe to visit, say NZ officials") by the breezy, insouciant tone. Worse than that is the quote offered by the Kiwi ambassador to Thailand:

"This is a caretaker government which is more than 200 days old now and people, institutions -- including the army -- have become impatient I think," Mr Barrington said. "You also have a situation where a number of groups from the universities to the medical profession have come out quite strongly in the last couple of weeks saying that it is time for Thaksin to stand down."

A democratically elected government (albeit a Thai government) has been toppled by a cabal of army officers, and the best the official representative of New Zealand can offer is the observation that doctors and university professors wanted Thaksin gone. I hold no brief for Thaksin, but the notion that political legitimacy is determined by the attitudes of certain credentialed elite groups is a bone-chilling one to hear mouthed by any Anglosphere government.

The Last Refuge of a Scoundrel...

...it turns out, is antisemitism dressed up as patriotism:

Sudan blames Israel and Jews for many of its woes

Pity the Hungarians

Hoping their demonstrations against government mendacity would create international pressure for change, they instead find themselves bigfooted in the global media by the army coup in Thailand. Premier Gyurcsany has just informed the protesters that he doesn't think anyone's watching, and he's willing to crack a few skulls to stay in office.

Somedays You Get the General Staff...

...Somedays the general staff gets you.

It would seem that the Thai army has decided that the premier's absence from the country is an excellent opportunity for some political remodeling.

No official announcement, but all the signs are that the army has decided Premier Thaksin must go. Fortunately for the Premier's health, he's in New York visiting the UN, but unfortunately it looks as though his party rank and file is incapable of standing up for themselves in his absence.

Accidents Will Happen

But when they happen to an entire country's general staff, one must wonder if someone else benefited. Unrest in the Niger delta has been a significant cause of oil price uncertainties, and this must be viewed as a destabilising development.

The subsequent bombing of the Somali President's entourage on Monday seems a remarkable coincidence. Somalia has explicitly linked al Quaeda to the Monday bombing.

Is It News If 1 Billion People Want To Ally with the U.S.?

Possibly the most momentous achievement of the G.W. Bush Administration will be the one which the U.S. media didn't find particularly newsworthy.

Peter Jackson, Please Phone Your Office

Christopher Tolkien is having his revision of his father's Narn-i-hin Hurin published as a standalone novel. Movie rights are no doubt the driving force behind this. I wonder how well the conservatives who boosted the Lord of the Rings will deal with the story.

A Breakthrough for Byzantine Studies

Emperor Manuel Palaeologus beats out Lonelygirl15 in MSN top People searches.

It's late in the day, but maybe the grownups are starting to wake up.

Did Crider Omit la Mordida?

Reading Fox's story on the crackdown in Stillmore, GA--complete with a gratuitous comparison of the INS to the Gestapo--I can't help think that Crider must have left someone important off their corporate PAC contributions list.

Not that Crider hadn't worked hard to make sure it covered the waterfront.

Contributions to Political Committees

CRIDER, BILL
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY

COVERDELL, PAUL DOUGLAS
VIA COVERDELL GOOD GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE;THE
02/20/1998 1000.00 98020091880

CRIDER, BILLY
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER INC./OWNER

CLAY, CALDER B III
VIA CALDER CLAY FOR US CONGRESS
06/14/2004 1000.00 24961740792
09/03/2004 1000.00 24981350054
10/28/2004 1000.00 24981508999

CRIDER, BILLY MR.
STILLMORE, GA 30464
CRIDER POULTRY/OWNER

MARSHALL, JIM
VIA FRIENDS OF JIM MARSHALL
03/31/2004 2000.00 24991018600
10/25/2004 1000.00 24981535550
10/30/2004 1000.00 24981535551
03/31/2005 2100.00 25990482683
03/31/2005 2100.00 25990482684

CRIDER, CHARLES
SIMPSONVILLE, SC 29681
CRIDER AND ASSOC

GRAHAM, LINDSEY OLIN
VIA LINDSEY GRAHAM FOR SENATE
12/03/2001 1000.00 24020331072

CRIDER, JACOB G
SHIPPENSBURG, PA 17257
CRIDER MEATS

NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE CONTRIBUTIONS
06/19/1998 250.00 98033272125
09/14/1998 350.00 98033651037

CRIDER, W A
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER FARMS

CLELAND, JOSEPH MAXWELL
VIA FRIENDS OF MAX CLELAND FOR THE US SENATE INC
05/03/2000 1000.00 20020251157
05/03/2000 1000.00 20020251157

CRIDER, W A
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER INC

ISAKSON, JOHN HARDY
VIA GEORGIANS FOR ISAKSON
01/22/2004 2000.00 24020272457
04/20/2004 2000.00 24020410957

CRIDER, W A
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY

CHAMBLISS, SAXBY
VIA CHAMBLISS FOR SENATE
04/27/2000 1000.00 20035704508
04/26/2002 1000.00 22020440604
08/27/2002 1000.00 22020741869
03/31/2003 1000.00 23020180712
05/20/2003 1000.00 23020303236
05/20/2003 1000.00 23020303235
03/31/2004 1000.00 24020231692

CRIDER, W A JR
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY

BUSH, GEORGE W
VIA BUSH FOR PRESIDENT INC.
09/09/1999 1000.00 99034850605

MILLER, ZELL BRYAN
VIA ZELL MILLER FOR SENATE INC
08/30/2000 1000.00 20020310530

CRIDER, W A JR MR
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY

COVERDELL, PAUL DOUGLAS
VIA COVERDELL GOOD GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE;THE
07/24/1998 1000.00 98020230117

CRIDER, W A JR MR
STILLMORE, GA 30464
CRIDER INC

ISAKSON, JOHN HARDY
VIA GEORGIANS FOR ISAKSON
05/03/2005 2000.00 25020272862
05/03/2005 2000.00 25020272861

CRIDER, W. A MR. JR.
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY/CHAIRMAN

BUSH, GEORGE W
VIA BUSH-CHENEY '04 (PRIMARY) INC
07/09/2003 2000.00 23992052343

CRIDER, W. A.
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY/PRESIDENT & CEO

CHAMBLISS, SAXBY
VIA CHAMBLISS FOR SENATE
01/05/2001 500.00 21990327777

CRIDER, W. A. JR.
STILLMORE, GA 30464
CRIDER INC/OWNER

BURNS, O MAXIE
VIA FRIENDS OF MAX BURNS
06/23/2005 2100.00 25970613876
06/23/2005 2100.00 25970613876

CRIDER, W. A. MR. JR.
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY/CHAIRMAN

NATIONAL CHICKEN COUNCIL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (FKA) NATIONAL BROILER COUNCIL PAC
06/04/2002 2500.00 22991416106
02/10/2003 1000.00 23991294772
03/19/2004 2500.00 24990985935
07/01/2005 2500.00 26990177583

CRIDER, W.A.
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY/EXECUTIVE

HAYES, ROBERT CANNON
VIA HAYES FOR CONGRESS
09/09/2003 1000.00 23992081227

CRIDER, W.A. JR.
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER INC./OWNER

BURNS, O MAXIE
VIA MAX BURNS FOR CONGRESS
05/20/2004 1000.00 24961740081
10/07/2004 1000.00 24962645377

CRIDER, WILLIAM
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY CO

KINGSTON, JOHN HEDDENS
VIA FRIENDS OF JACK KINGSTON
09/15/1997 1000.00 98032684029
01/17/1998 1000.00 98032960146
04/14/1999 1000.00 99034643649
05/08/2000 1000.00 20035741074

CRIDER, WILLIAM
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY CO./PRES. POULTRY

KINGSTON, JOHN HEDDENS
VIA FRIENDS OF JACK KINGSTON
05/10/2001 1000.00 21990265221

CRIDER, WILLIAM
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER'S POULTRY

NORWOOD, CHARLES WHITLOW
VIA NORWOOD FOR CONGRESS
06/29/1998 1000.00 98033221098
05/09/2000 1000.00 20035701680

CRIDER, WILLIAM
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDERS POULTRY/OWNER

NORWOOD, CHARLES WHITLOW
VIA NORWOOD FOR CONGRESS
07/18/2002 1000.00 22991528643
01/23/2003 1000.00 23990705610
04/22/2004 1000.00 24961723596

CRIDER, WILLIAM
STILLMORE, GA 30464
CRIDER COMPANIES

CHAMBLISS, SAXBY
VIA CHAMBLISS FOR SENATE
05/08/2002 1000.00 22020440835
11/13/2002 1000.00 22020930264

CRIDER, WILLIAM
STILLMORE, GA 30464
CRIDER COMPANIES/VP OPERATIONS

CHAMBLISS, SAXBY
VIA CHAMBLISS FOR SENATE
06/30/2006 2000.00 26020430558
06/30/2006 2000.00 26020430558

CRIDER, WILLIAM
STILLMORE, GA 30464
CRIDERS POULTRY/OWNER

NORWOOD, CHARLES WHITLOW
VIA NORWOOD FOR CONGRESS
02/17/2006 2000.00 26930047860

CRIDER, WILLIAM A
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER'S POULTRY

FOOD PRODUCTS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (FPA-PAC)
04/09/1998 500.00 98033122343
05/04/1999 500.00 99034520286

CRIDER, WILLIAM A.
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY CO./PRES. POULTRY

KINGSTON, JOHN HEDDENS
VIA FRIENDS OF JACK KINGSTON
05/07/2004 1000.00 24961724230

CRIDER, WILLIAM A.I MR. III
STILLMORE, GA 30464
CRIDER INC./VICE PRESIDENT

NATIONAL CHICKEN COUNCIL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (FKA) NATIONAL BROILER COUNCIL PAC
02/20/2003 1000.00 23991294772
03/19/2004 2500.00 24990985936
07/20/2005 2500.00 26990177584

CRIDER, WILLIAM III
STATESBORO, GA 30458
CRIDER POULTRY

MILLER, ZELL BRYAN
VIA ZELL MILLER FOR SENATE INC
08/30/2000 1000.00 20020310535

CRIDER, WILLIAM MR. JR.
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER INC./CHAIRMAN

FOOD PRODUCTS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (FPA-PAC)
03/07/2002 1000.00 22990592086

CRIDER ., MR. WILLIAM JR
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY CO./PRES. POULTRY

KINGSTON, JOHN HEDDENS
VIA FRIENDS OF JACK KINGSTON
04/09/2005 2000.00 25970654306
04/25/2005 2000.00 25970654306

CRIDER III, WILLIAM A.
STILLMORE, GA 30464
CRIDER POULTRY/CHAIRMAN

KINGSTON, JOHN HEDDENS
VIA FRIENDS OF JACK KINGSTON
05/27/2004 1000.00 24961724230

CRIDER JR., WILLIAM
STILLMORE, GA 30464
CRIDER INC./VICE PRESIDENT

NORWOOD, CHARLES WHITLOW
VIA NORWOOD FOR CONGRESS
05/10/2004 1000.00 24961723596
05/09/2005 2000.00 25970585900
05/09/2005 2000.00 25970585900

CRIDER JR., WILLIAM A.
METTER, GA 30439
CRIDER POULTRY CO./PRES. POULTRY

KINGSTON, JOHN HEDDENS
VIA FRIENDS OF JACK KINGSTON
01/23/2002 1000.00 22990616796
06/13/2003 1000.00 23991345064

HOWELL, MARK
EVANS, GA 30809
CRIDER INC

MILLER, ZELL BRYAN
VIA ZELL MILLER FOR SENATE INC
08/30/2000 1000.00 20020310535

HOWELL, MARK
STATESBORO, GA 30458
CRIDER INC

CHAMBLISS, SAXBY
VIA CHAMBLISS FOR SENATE
04/26/2002 1000.00 22020440790




If it's gotten to the point that an INS bust can depopulate an entire town, then it's safe to conclude that these enforcement actions are about 10 years behind the curve. How many other towns could be raided with similar results?

U.S. Navy Exonerates Islam

Someone at Armed Forces Information Services decided there was some positive purpose served by printing the inanities of the Navy's 2nd Muslim chaplain about the relationship between Islam and bin Laden for publication:

"People shouldn’t associate the worship of Islam with the so-called religious theology espoused by terrorists like Osama bin Laden, Saifulislam said. “Terrorism has no religion, and no religion condones terrorism,” he said. “These terrorists just happen to be Muslims.”

Why was this article written? Because the Navy believes that bin Laden "just happen[s] to be Muslim? Because the Navy wants some part of its audience to believe it believes this--if so which part: the sailors and marines who actually read its releases, or the anonymous Muslim who will thus be reassured that whatever he believes about jihad is just fine and dandy with the Navy if he chooses to join?

As incoherent as Saifulislam's line of reasoning on this issue is, at least he has one which seems to be more than we can say for the U.S. Navy.

Don't Mention the Jihad

"The derogatory remarks of the Pope about the philosophy of jihad and Prophet Mohammed have injured sentiments across the Muslim world and pose the danger of spreading acrimony among the religions..."

Pakistani National Assembly Resolution Condemning Benedict XVI's 12 September speech on faith and reason

Erm, I'd say the threat of acrimony lies a good deal closer to home.

This to me sounds the same as "don't mention my husband's temper or it will be your fault if he gets angry and beats someone up."

NATO 1949-2006 RIP

I guess it was a good run, although Russian manoeuvring to buy into EADS makes me think that we may have saved the European village in order to burn it.

Malegaon Suspicion Turns Towards Hindu Extremists

It looks like the obvious explanation is the most likely. Focus of investigation sharpening around the Bajrang Dal.

The internecine theory remains on the table, but there are plenty of Hindu suspects to run down as well.

Does Tolerance Extend To Not Executing Converts?

Episcopal Church and National Cathedral grant backdrop for brazenly mendacious plea for tolerance from former President of Iran.

In Other News: Fire Hot, Water Wet

Scientist establishes a psychological underpinning of the blindingly obvious.

Patricia Schroeder could not be reached for comment.

A Link to the Senate Intelligence Committee Report on Pre-War vs. Post-War Intelligence

Links to Iraq Intelligence Phase II Reports:

Postwar Findings about Iraq's WMD Programs and Links to Terrorism and How they Compare with Prewar Assessments

The Use by the Intelligence Community of Information Provided by the Iraqi National Congress

I Can't Decide What Should Happen

Bond villain wannabe Dr. A.Q. Khan ails from prostate cancer.

Would we rather:

A) He slipped in the bathtub tomorrow morning;
B) He suffered a long and harrowing ordeal which brought him to repentance and cooperation with the U.S.;
C) He makes a complete recovery and is bagged by a covert ops. team while celebrating his recovery on some beach outside Karachi

Internecine Bombing?

The most recent attack in India seems to have killed at least 30.

The natural assumption to make here, since the victims were primarily Muslims at prayer, is that the blast was a tit-for-tat retaliation, presumably by Hindu extremists, for the Mumbai bombings in July, but there are curious details which give one pause. A previous explosives find in Malegaon was made by means of evidence obtained from arrested Islamic militants. Malegaon is about three quarters Muslim, so it seems unlikely that the local Hindus would court a riot by attempting violence there, and it seems likely that out-of-towners of any sort would have stood out as well.

Maleagaon also has a history of Muslim violence, dating back to the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in the U.S.

If this were "green on green" violence, then the follow-up questions which I cannot answer would be:

1) Was this factional--were the target congregants known for some doctrinal dispute with other Muslims in the area; and

2) Was this a provocation by extremists hoping to spark another riot and possible overreaction by the authorities?

The authorities, as is typical in cases of sectarian violence within India, are close-mouthed.

Somewhat Light on White Chips, Though

Naval forces in Arabian Sea:

USS Enterprise (CVN 65) - Arabian Sea
USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) - Arabian Sea
USS Nashville (LPD 13) - Arabian Sea
USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) - Arabian Sea
USS Saipan (LHA 2) - Gulf of Aden

The Kitty Hawk is currently on port call in Thailand. That would be close enough to be of use, but it's a big step down from the build-up in 2005, which saw 3 carrier groups in the region.

The Blue Chips on the Table

8/7/2006 - SAN ANTONIO (AFPN) -- A contingent of four bombers from Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo., is providing both an increase in forces and a security presence to the 36th Air Expeditionary Wing at Anderson Air Force Base, Guam -- making one of the U.S. military's most unique aircraft ready at a moment's notice.

8/31/2006 - -- A 23rd Expeditionary Bomb Squadron B-52 Stratofortress taxis on the airfield at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, Aug. 30. The B-52, from the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot AFB, N.D., is one of six scheduled to be deployed to Andersen for four months. The aircraft, aircrews, support staff and maintainers will continue the mission of promoting regional security and preserving regional stability, while providing a continuous bomber presence.

Thursday, September 7, 2006
ELLSWORTH AIR FORCE BASE, S.D. (AP) -- B-1 bombers from Ellsworth Air Force Base are scheduled to depart early Thursday for southwest Asia.
On Tuesday, about 300 airmen from the 28th Bomb Wing of the base near Rapid City were deployed for assignments that will last from 120 to 200 days.

UPDATE---
8/28/2006 - ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE, Guam (AFPN) -- After more than 140 sorties and 330 released weapons, B-2 Spirit aircraft, pilots, maintainers and support staff from the 509th Bomb Wing are returning home having completed another successful deployment here.

So the Air Force posture is looking almost as relaxed as the Navy one detailed above.

Going All In

Bush makes flat statement:

"The world's free nations will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.

The Shia and Sunni extremists represent different faces of the same threat. They draw inspiration from different sources, but both seek to impose a dark vision of violent Islamic radicalism across the Middle East. They oppose the advance of freedom, and they want to gain control of weapons of mass destruction. If they succeed in undermining fragile democracies, like Iraq, and drive the forces of freedom out of the region, they will have an open field to pursue their dangerous goals. Each strain of violent Islamic radicalism would be emboldened in their efforts to topple moderate governments and establish terrorist safe havens."

So will this be the son's "Read my lips..." moment? The document whose release was heralded in this speech, the National Strategy for Combating Terrorism only states that:

"We will continue to create and strengthen international will to interdict material support, akin to our efforts in the Proliferation Security Initiative – a global effort to stop shipments of WMD, their delivery systems, and related material. We will build international cooperation to financially isolate rogue states and their terrorist proxies. We also will continue to expose the vehicles and fronts that states use to support their terrorist surrogates."

With respect, this simply isn't going to stop anyone who's already committed to developing a bomb and, like Iran, has the material means to produce one.

Additionally, might one read perhaps too much into Bush's formulation that we will not permit Iran "to develop a nuclear weapon?" It seems to me to leave open the possibility that the Mullahs in fact already have gotten their mitts on a weapon from outside...

Bullseye!

One step closer to doing what we're told over and over again is the impossible. The Missile Defense Agency conducts a successful flight test of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense element of the the Ballistic Missile Defense System.

Here's a shot of an interceptor going into the silo.

Political P0rnography

I wish I could say it surprised me to learn that a British television network has decided to fund a feature-length motion picture dramatization of the Left’s recurrent sotto-voce fantasy, the assassination of President George Bush.

Not, as they might easily have done, some fictional President Geoff Holly, or similar roman-a-clef dodge (as they did in the Manchurian Candidate, which accomplished the admirable feat of simultaneously defaming Nixon while hanging the basic outline of the traitors afoot in the Democratic Party circa 1944 about the neck of the Republican Party--and even then, they felt compelled, like a criminal returning to the scene, to remake the film in 2004 removing any ambiguity about the evil of Republicans). No, the Left is tired of pussyfooting around, they want their pound of flesh bloody and unadulterated.

With a morbid curiosity for which I will no doubt atone in purgatory, I sojourned within the fever swamps of the DailyKos to see how badly the Left would betray its baser urges. Mostly, even there, it was recognized that to entertain this conjecture as a dramatic project for public consumption for even an instant was a profound rejection of the American experiment and impulse towards Caesarism which stood contrary to the stated values of most Leftist movements.

However, the pro-forma denunciations of the film had two recurring features that suggest the Left’s rejection of the assassination fantasy is neither completely sincere nor unconditional.

1) The first feature took the formulation along the lines of “I would never see this film, and I would urge others to reject it as well.” This is, I suppose, the situational variant of the well-worn “personally opposed, but politically supportive” cant which has been the Left’s stock-in-trade on issues of sexual immorality since the 1960’s, but it demonstrates a complete lack of seriousness about the nature of the project. If the objection to the film is merely that one finds the theme unpleasant, I suppose this attitude might hold water. If, on the other hand, it is believed, as most of the posters claim to do, that publicizing such fantasies in fact amounts to incitement, then one cannot in moral seriousness suppose that the public danger is eliminated by only allowing those who have no qualms about subjecting themselves to such incitement to view the film. The danger is showing the film publicly, tout court, not that the film is distasteful and therefore unworthy of support.

2) The second phenomenon observed runs parallel to the first in that it similarly reveals an inability to separate the fantastic and conspiratorial from actual reality. A significant number of posters who objected to the film, objected for the tactical reason that the assassination of Bush would only elevate Vice President Cheney, one of the purported masterminds who compose the ruling syndicate in the imaginings of many on the Left. This train of conspiratorial reasoning swiftly deduced that the only possible source of this inflammatory film must be some public relations operation on the Right, following the notion that since the assassination of Bush would probably redound to the popularity of his successor (as Johnson was only able to sustain any sort of public popularity standing in the halo of Kennedy’s secular martyrdom), therefore it must be the case that the Right has come to consciously wish for Bush’s assassination and is, by unspecified Dark Arts, compelling Leftist English filmmakers to produce the material to set off some anti-Bush Travis Bickle in our midst.

To the extent that any politically consequential conclusions can be drawn, it seems clear to me that the Left is in clear denial about the extent of their Bush Derangement Syndrome, and that any attempt by the Democratic Party to craft a serious foreign policy platform on which to run in November is perhaps fatally compromised by this unwillingness to engage in the sort of reality-based analysis of their situation upon which they congratulate themselves so warmly.

A Few Thoughts about Miss England

The lovely, the talented Hammasa Kohistani, 2006 Miss England

1) She's attractive, but I've got to think that you could find a dozen women on the platform at Charing Cross at rush hour who would favourably bear comparison;

2) Given #1, above, I cannot dismiss the prospect that this was an affirmative action win awarded by the judges to attempt to communicate to Britain's "good Muslims" that they have a place of welcome in British society if they could just stop their confreres from blowing up trains, please.

3) The real mindbender is that, despite the death threats she has received from Muslim fundamentalists for participating in such decadent pursuits as beauty contests, her real upset is that English society is causing terror by their intolerance and stereotyping:

"Even moderate Muslims are turning to terrorism to prove themselves. They think they might as well support it because they are stereotyped anyway. It will take a long time for communities to start mixing in more."

Clearly, she didn't win the contest on her scores in the deductive and analytic reasoning competition.

The Imam Who Didn't Bark

Still waiting for a Muslim spokesperson of any significance to condemn the gunpoint conversions of Fox journalists Steve Centanni and Olaf Wiig.

I'm sure our friends at CAIR are working on a humdinger, just as soon as they get done feting former Iranian President Khatami

The U.N. Hits the Snooze Bar

Iran has officially rejected the Security Council's deadline to stop its nuclear enrichment. This is basically akin to Hitler remilitarising the Rheinland--the question of future military consequence is answered by the very developments which caused one to consider the question at all. Iran pursues enrichment because they plan to develop a nuclear weapon as soon as possible.

But we shouldn't worry, we're told, because Iran is certainly 5 years away from a bomb. The chilling frisson this fails to dispel is due to the fact that these are the same intelligence agencies who concluded that North Korea was at least--wait for it--FIVE YEARS away from launching a ballistic missile in 1998, shortly before North Korea proceeded with complete insouciance to launch their first Taepo-Dong 1 over the Sea of Japan.

Iranwatch has a good backgrounder pointing out the manifold failures of western intelligence and the clear objectives of the Iranian regime.

PJ

It Is True That Your Odds of Winning the Lottery Are Better...

Than that of being killed by a crazed Pakistani-American. But we've had our second crazed killer of Pakistani ancestry go off on a spree on the west coast in the last 30 days.

Please don't anyone draw any invidious conclusions, please, or even talk about the odd coincidence. It would be better if you spent your time watching the round-the-clock JonBenet Ramsey/John Mark Karr freakshow.

PJ

Modern Psychology Tips Its Hand

Haven't you always suspected this was the real objective?

Lieberman a Real Democrat?

I missed this piece from Novak earlier this week, but it's a useful reminder that Joe Lieberman may sound reasonable, and may be perceived as conservative - but that's not what his record shows.

Lieberman has to win GOP votes to get re-elected, but that probably won't lead to changes in policy or tone. After all, he's very popular among Republicans as he is.

But notwithstanding that I just saw Lieberman tell Bob Schieffer that he will remain a Democrat if re-elected, I don't believe him. I still cannot believe that he can go back to being a Democrat if he does what it takes to win this race as an Independent. What kind of stuff am I talking about? Garnering donations from Republicans, and hiring Republican pollsters.

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Vigilante Racial Profilers...

Fascinating story from the Daily Mail. Airline passengers feared that two arabic men on the plane were terrorists, and refused to allow the plane to take off until the men were removed.

Apparently these men were not terrorists, but what happens if more passengers do this? I would have thought it unlikely, figuring that if it was not done after September 11, it never would be. But apparently people are not content to see 75 year old caucasian grandmothers treated the same as 22-year old arabic men. Will more of this happen?

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House of Representatives in Suspended Animation

Well, they say that nothing happens in Congress in August. That's especially true this year, when a fire has cut off most power to the Longworth and Cannon House Office Buildings. I was up there today, and the buildings were without air conditioning, most lights, and most elevators. It wasn't quite Logan's Run or Mad Max, but think The Postman and you're close.

Hhhmmm... perhaps the House ought to look into hamsters...

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Meet Your GOP Candidate: Joe Lieberman

You heard it here a while ago. Now Political Wire confirms it: the National Republican Senate Committee supports Joe Lieberman for re-election.

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Jane, You Ignorant Slut...

While on travel, I had the chance to listen to a well-known, non-partisan, political analyst, and a member of the staff of the NRCC talk about expectations and projections for the fall elections.

First the non-partisan: he was not encouraging (if you're a Republican). He said that it's looking likely that the Democrats will retake the House. He noted similarities to 1994, and said that with Bush's popularity extremely low and with Bush's poll numbers appearing to be largely 'frozen,' (an assertion I don't really agree with), it's hard for the GOP to get much traction. This analyst said that for some months, 'macro' polls showed the GOP in big trouble, but that the dynamics of individual races did not seem to follow. He said that as time has gone on however, those races have materialized into ones that the Democrats are likely to win. He also noted that the GOP always took solace in the fact that while the GOP overall was unpopular, most voters still supported their own GOP incumbent. That has changed as well he said, so that now polls show that people are no longer so supportive of their own Congressman. Lastly, he said, polls show that Democratic voters are more highly motivated than their GOP counterparts.

He concluded by saying that this year looks like a big wave - on the order of 15-20 seats. But he added that in such years, the wave usually develops in such a way that about 5 more incumbents get beaten who were thought completely safe. So his guess is that unless something big happens to change the dynamic, the GOP will lose the House with a few seats to spare.

Anyway, the next day I heard from an NRCC strategist who took a completely different point of view. He explained why the GOP will retain control of the House. The key he said, is that the GOP has better candidates, is better at getting out the vote, and has recognized that elections cannot be nationalized (an assertion with which I don't completely agree). On this latter point, he said that Democrats have been trying in vain for years to win a majority based on Iraq, gas prices, corruption, and other meta issues. He said that the reason for their failure is that local issues dominate local races.

I'm not sure that the GOP is set to lose the House. Partly this is because there remain few truly competitive races. NRCC chair Tom Reynolds has pointed out that Democrats needed to win 87% of all competitive races to win the House. Further, Ken Mehlman is the GOP secret weapon. He organized Get-Out-the-Vote efforts for the GOP in 2004 and before, and his ability to identify GOP voters and get them to the polls is unparallelled. Recall that in 2004 Kerry was sure he won the White House, because the numbers showed that Democrats had voted in such large numbers that there was no way he could have lost. The only problem was that Mehlman turned out more GOP voters than Democrats thought possible.

Further, elections can be nationalized. This is pretty basic, it seems to me. Why would there be a '6-year curse' which turns out dozens of members of the President's party, if an election isn't nationalized?

Anyway, the GOP will lose some seats because people are coming out to vote against Bush. But there is no reason that they can't also gain an advantage from pointing out to voters that Nancy Pelosi and her team oppose some of the key laws and tactics being used by the administration to frustrate terrorist attacks. I think that however disappointed voters may be with Bush, they recognize that it is no accident that there have been no successful terrorist attacks in the US since September 11. If reminded why that is so, I think voters will respond by supporting Republican candidates.

On the Senate, this analyst thinks it rather likely that the GOP will stay in control. He said that it is easy to project the GOP losing 5 Senate seats, but hard to get to the 6th (which Harry Reid needs to become Majority Leader). This analyst says that Rick Santorum and Conrad Burns are more or less goners. It is not difficult to project Lincoln Chafee, Mike DeWine, and Jim Talent as losers. But he said that for Democrats to retake the Senate, they then need to win a long-shot - in Tennessee or Virginia. He does not think that especially likely.

But with regard to Santorum, check out Tim Chapman and Political Wire.

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Lieberman Angering Dem Colleagues

Hey folks - been on travel a few days, but I've returned and will be blogging more in the next few days. First item of interest on my return is this news from The Hill that Democratic Senators are growing angry with Joe Lieberman's recent actions in his Independent campaign for Senate.

I've been saying for months that Joe Lieberman will have a hard time returing to the Democratic caucus if he is re-elected as an Independent. Stuff like this will make it tougher.

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Even a Broken Clock...

is right twice a day. I have to agree with Senator Levin that the results in Lebanon are uncertain at best. However, he goes on to say:

"It seems to me you've got to be very objective, very straightforward, very
honest about what we are facing if you're going to try to rally the world
against the terrorist threat."

And right there he loses me, at the same place where the Democrats always lose me, the recommended course of action. I would argue that if we actually were "very objective, very straightforward and very honest about what we are facing" we would admit to ourselves that "rallying the world" is no way to solve the problem. Allowing the world to rally is what got us a UN resolution that preserves Hezbollah. If we're objective, straightforward and honest, we're going to realize that if you want something done right, you're going to have to do it yourself, whether that's in South Lebanon, Sadr city or somewhere in the mountains of Pakistan.

North Korea Has Its Hand Out Again

I haven't been keeping a very good eye on the DPRK lately but it looks like the recent flooding in the North has accelerated the reestablishment of DPRK-ROK contacts, at least in the area of humanitarian aid. Evidently, the South Koreans can't stand to see the unfortunates north of the border suffer and that concern trumps any desire to punish Pyongyang for its recent missile tests and continuing nuclear program. And in my humble opinion this one of the few occasions when that kind of self-defeating humanitarianism is understandable. I have to think that any South Koreans who hope for reconciliation with the North are basing those hopes on the belief that the two countries are one people. And it's hard to watch your own people suffer under any circumstances.

Nevertheless, it is another reminder of one of the greatest disadvantages we and our allies have in dealing with those who threaten us. We just can't seem to stand the sight of blood anymore, particularly when it's the other guy's.

The Final Humiliation.

If you think this lackluster "war" damaged Israel's credibility in the region, you haven't seen anything yet. Obviously the Israelis aren't looking for Jackson's involvement, but the fact that circumstances permit Jackson to stick his nose in shows just how hollow Omert and Bush's claims of "victory" really are.

Nationalizing the Elections

There's a shift going on in how the parties are approaching the midterm congressional elections. Up until now, Democrats have been trying to nationalize the elections, while Republicans have been trying to localize them. The Democrats have been succeeding, as current polls show the GOP taking it on the chin; it seems that if elections were held today, the GOP would likely lose the House of Representatives. (I encountered a Democratic Member of Congress the other day discussing with lobbyists how she anticipated handling her subcommittee when she chairs it next year).

Well, now I think we're starting to see evidence that Republicans are accepting that the election has been nationalized, and that they're trying to frame the issues on which they are nationalized. I've noticed this first on immigration, where endangered Republican incumbents Charles Taylor and Thelma Drake (to name but two) are attacking their opponents for being soft on border control. I am sure that there are already others, and they will be many before the elections. I know of longtime GOP incumbents in both Ohio and Connecticut for example, who are shocked at the depth of feeling among constituents about immigration. This is true in lots of places around the country, and will lead many GOP incumbents to run ads on immigration. I would also not be shocked if the House GOP re-passes the Border Security bill in the last days before the election, to try to make it a central issue on election day: Democrats either hand the GOP a major victory, or stand in the way of border protection.

As I alluded to the other day, Republicans may try to tie Democratic congressional candidates to party leaders who oppose things like wiretaps, surveillance of terror financing, and the like. Now the Hotline notes that Tom Reynolds - the Republican campaign chief - is starting to do this:

Is NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds setting up what the fall nationalized (televised) GOP message is going to be with this attack on House Dem leader Nancy Pelosi: "As a New Yorker who witnessed first-hand the grievous destruction brought on this country by terrorists, I say to Leader Pelosi that she ought to be ashamed to have voted against doing everything possible to prevent such an attack. The wiretap provision of the PATRIOT Act has proven itself invaluable in fighting the Global War on Terror and Congresswoman Pelosi is on the record opposing it.

The GOP is likely to suffer serious losses in the elections. This may be an effective strategy for reducing them.

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You Gotta Pitch to the Slugger

I disagree with Jonathan Last's friend - but judging by the comments section, I am the only one. How often do conservatives decry the lack of civility in society, and a lack of respect for basic right and wrong.

If we're talking Major League Baseball, I'm walking the slugger in a heartbeat. But this is Little League we're talking about. I could live accept walking the slugger to get to a weak hitter; that's baseball. But you can't take advantage of the fact that the weak hitter is also a cancer patient.

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