Sunday, October 29, 2006

The Bulwark & the Battering Ram

That's how CQ sees it in their last big assessment prior to the election. Give it a read. For all the talk about the wave, and the fact that all the experts give Dems the edge to take the House, CQ makes clear that it's still a very close thing:

As of Oct. 27, CQ’s individual assessments of all 435 House races showed Democrats seriously contesting Republican holds on 72 seats (31 percent of the party’s current total) with seven of those races already leaning toward a Democratic takeover and 18 more considered genuine tossups — the result of a combination of Republican political weaknesses and the Emanuel team’s success at growing the roster of competitive Democratic challengers, many in districts that the party had not contested in years. By contrast, only 21 Democratic seats were in play, and only a handful appeared seriously at risk. The bottom line is that the Republicans are now ahead at least marginally in only 207 races, meaning that even if they hold on to all of those (which won’t happen) they must win 11 of the 18 tossups to retain power. The Democrats are now ahead in 210 races — nine more than the number of seats they have now — so if they hold all those leads they will need to win just eight of the tossups to gain control.

So will the GOP get 11 of the 18, or will Democrats get 8?

It's funny that it's this close, after all this.

Back to the top.

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