Monday, October 30, 2006

What's With the Polls?

That's Michael Barone's question, courtesy of Instapundit.

One facet of the polls this year has interested me. As a rule of thumb, Republican candidates do better among 'Likely Voters' than among 'Registered Voters.' That's because GOP voters generally go to the polls more dependably than Democrats. Another way to put that is that intermittent voters tend to be more Democratic than the base vote.

But if the Democratic base is more motivated this year than the GOP base - if they are expected to come out and vote more reliably than the Republicans, shouldn't the 'Likely Vote' be more Democratic than the 'Registered Vote?' From what I have seen, very few polls have shown that. (A recent exception is the Newsweek poll I posted below).

If 'Likely Voters' this year are consistently more Republican than the Registered Voters, can this be explained by anything other than a motivated Republican base?

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