Tuesday, April 03, 2007

My Regular Look at Intrade

I find it interesting and illuminating to see how investors think the Presidential candidates are doing. With the release of first quarter fundraising numbers now behind us, I thought I'd see how the 'markets' reacted to the news. First off, Romney:

It sure looks like his fundraising total changed the view of investors - at least for today - of his chances at the nomination. Shares in 'Romney' really spiked. The bad news is - as we will see below - he's still in fourth place.

Next is Giuliani. He clearly had a poor week - probably related to discussions of his wife as a member of his Cabinet. His fundraising total didn't stop the slide, and may have caused him to slide a little more. Still - he has a significant margin over the man in second place.

Now we come to the man in second place: John McCain. He is trading around $20 - just a little bit ahead of Romney - and he seems neither to have benefited nor suffered from his poor money total.

And last is a non-candidate: the man who raised no money in the quarter, and has nevertheless moved into parity with John McCain - Fred Thompson. He continues on the steady climb he began when his name was first floated as a possible candidate.

Looking at these numbers, it appears that Thompson is surging, Giuliani is dipping, Romney got the boost he needed, and McCain has nothing good to point to. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that McCain will need to do something to shake this funk. The good news is, the campaign has a long way to go.

Update: The Politico reports that McCain is re-launching his campaign. My comments are here.

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