Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Can Giuliani Win?

He's smart to collect chits - raising money for Rick Santorum, Mike DeWine, Asa Hutchinson, Judy Barr Topinka, and Lynn Swann.

I generally believe that Rudy Giuliani would be toast in a Republican Presidential primary. Even though he's America's Mayor, demonstrated great leadership on 9/11, and recognizes evil when he sees it, it's awfully tough to overcome pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control, and pro-illegal immigration in a GOP primary.

That said, I don't see any traditional conservative candidate in the primary who I feel confident would beat Giuliani. George Allen, Sam Brownback, Tim Pawlenty... none has any name ID to speak of. And in the early stages of the campaign, they will divide the conservative vote.

And if it comes down to McCain vs. Giuliani, I think that many conservatives will find Giuliani more palatable. As I've noted before, McCain is too practiced at angering conservatives; at times he's seemed to actively try to upset them. Giuliani has never run in a place where conservative support was important. He's never betrayed them. If he starts the Presidential primary by saying, 'I recognize the views of the majority of Republicans on these contentious social issues, and won't push for reforms on guns, gays, and abortion that are not supported by conservatives in Congress,' then I think he will have a chance.

Again, if there were a clear, traditional conservative in the primary, I think Giuliani would have little chance. But without one, I think he has a fair chance at pulling it off.

Back to the top.

3 comments:

Philo-Junius said...

I'll go further: I predict Giuliani will be the Republican nominee if he just pushes all social issues aside with an overarching Federalism position arguing that the Federal government should respect regional differences.

Giuliani's poll numbers are too good right out of the box, and he plays better under pressure than McCain, who has a tendency to snap.

MikeD said...

I think most people still want a wartime consigliere. And he can limit any damage from his liberal social positions by stressing law & order.

Joe said...

He played Lennie Brisco right?!?